What is most likely in 2016, and what is becoming more and more obvious every day, is that with Donald Trump as the Republican candidate, Hillary Clinton will become the next president of the United States. The stakes are too high for us to let that happen. The Supreme Court decisions of the last two weeks confirm that. But to stop Hillary Clinton from becoming president, Republicans must stop Donald Trump from becoming the Republican candidate. Trump as the candidate greatly increases the likelihood that Hillary Clinton will become president.
No amount of calling for Trump rallies will facilitate him. The Republican Party is already the smaller of the two major political parties. Even if all the Republicans who oppose him—including me—suddenly supported him, it still wouldn’t be enough. His approval rating is over 70 percent. He’s polling at around 30 percent. His fundraising is anemic. He’s prone to huge blunders. He doesn’t have the electoral apparatus to get people out in November, and his surrogates don’t have a compelling message to convince the undecided to become supporters.
In the last 24 polls, Trump has lost all but one. Those who say the “everyone said he would lose in the primaries and look what happened” variants should be reminded that those of us, myself included, who said that ignored the polls in the primaries. The polls were right before the primaries. The polls are right before the general election.
The only reason Donald Trump isn’t doing worse now is because the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton. Fifty percent of the country thinks she’s unfavorable. But Donald Trump is still losing to her. The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that “the opposition of many Americans to Clinton and the desire for change in Washington is so strong that even some who express disapproval of Trump say they feel compelled to vote for him for now.” But Trump is still losing to Clinton in that poll by 12 percent, even at that level of disapproval for Clinton. Trump’s disapproval is even higher.
Trump has less than $2 million in the bank. Trump says he will be competitive in California, New York and Maryland. In the first and second cases, Trump won fewer votes than Bernie Sanders lost in the Democratic primary. In the third case, the state’s Republican governor refuses to endorse Trump. Every time Trump announces a path forward in newly competitive states, the polls show that not only is he delusional, but Republican states are becoming competitive for Clinton. Key Republicans, including the governors of Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio and others, refuse to endorse Trump.
To believe that Donald Trump will beat Hillary Clinton, you have to believe so many things that are not true and ignore reality. The reality is that this emperor has no clothes. The campaign, exposed and laid bare, is a disaster built on a steaming hole. The last basis on which Trump voters stand is that Ronald Reagan was thirty-something behind Jimmy Carter in 1980 at this point. But even that is not true. Only the Gallup poll showed that. Other polls and the average of polls in 1980 showed that Ronald Reagan had overtaken Jimmy Carter by delayed May 1980, and Reagan never fell behind Carter again.
Conservatives must stop Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump is too flawed a vessel for the Republican Party to sail to victory against her. Delegates must unite and reject any demands to vote for Trump. To stop Hillary Clinton, they must stop Donald Trump. To stop Donald Trump, delegates must break free for the good of the party, the country, and our collective future.
