Trump’s ‘mannequining’ leaves House plan amendment deadlocked after Virginia vote

Each party’s race to reshuffle House districts in their favor could end in a tie after Tuesday’s huge Democratic victory in Virginia, although significant changes are still possible before the crucial midterm elections in November.

Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment that clears the way for the Democrat-controlled state Legislature to redraw congressional district lines to benefit Democrats in 10 of the commonwealth’s 11 House districts.

This could give the party four up-to-date seats in Virginia, although state court cases challenging the proposal have not yet been resolved.

Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Florida Democrat who now heads the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University, said the results showed dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the nation’s capital generally.

“It’s a clear signal to the administration, the White House and Washington that they are not satisfied with the status quo, with the policies coming out of Washington, that they want change,” she said in an interview on Wednesday.

After 10 months of bitter bickering that began with Trump pressing Texas Republicans to redraw the congressional map to facilitate gain House seats, neither side has achieved a significant advantage.

But experts say tit-for-tat could have a lasting detrimental effect on U.S. democracy.

If Virginia’s proposal becomes law, Democrats will be favored in one more House district across the country than in 2024, According to nonpartisan election research organization, Ballotpedia.

Further changes, including a potential redrawing of the House map by the Florida Legislature and a U.S. Supreme Court decision rejecting protections under the federal Voting Rights Act for majority-Black districts in southern states, could tip the scales toward the GOP.

Republicans currently have narrow control of the chamber (217-212), with one independent and five vacancies left by Georgia Democrat David Scott died Wednesday.

The president’s party typically loses House seats in midterm elections, and Trump’s sinking poll numbers and special election results suggest anything different this year.

Good for Democrats, bad for democracy

Elected Democrats largely characterized Virginia’s results as a victory for a free and fair election.

“Virginia voters have spoken and tonight they stood up to a president who claims he has a ‘right’ to more congressional seats for Republicans,” Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, wrote on X.

But the overall cycle could deepen political polarization, leading to less compromise and policymaking in Congress and a shift in power to the executive branch, Erik Nisbet, director of the Center for Communication and Public Policy at Northwestern University, said Wednesday.

“There were some quotes today from some leading Democrats saying you can’t bring a knife to a shooting, and that’s the only way you can save democracy and sort of rationalize it,” he said. “In the long run, this is still bad for democracy… It means that in the long run, Congress is even more polarized and ineffective.”

Mucarsel-Powell, who represented one of the few competitive districts in the country, also said redistricting would make it more tough to legislate.

“Redistricting won’t necessarily help the whole country,” she said. “As we become more and more polarized, I think redrawing these maps to favor one side or the other will only deepen the polarization. I think it will be harder for members to reach consensus. I’ve seen that, right? When you represent a solid red district or a solid blue district, there’s really no incentive to compromise.”

Republicans are unhappy with the result in Virginia

Republicans, starting with Trump, complained Wednesday that the result was unfair because it could give Democrats 91% of House seats in a state where the party’s newest presidential candidate won just 52% of the vote.

In post on Wednesday afternoon, Trump declared on his social media site that the result was illegal – repeating without evidence his regular claims during the election that mail-in ballots were fraudulent – and called on the courts to “correct” the result.

“THERE WAS A RIGGED ELECTION IN THE GREAT COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA LAST NIGHT!” Trump wrote. “The Republicans were winning all day long, the atmosphere was unbelievable, until the very end when, of course, there was a massive ‘Mail it in!’ Where have I heard this before – And the Democrats won another Crooked Victory!”

Questionable strategy

But Virginia’s proposed map would level the playing field only after Trump initiated a sporadic mid-decade redistricting cycle last year by asking Texas officials to redraw the state’s districts.

Texas’ up-to-date map could give Republicans five additional seats in the House of Representatives. However, its creation set off an arms race in which California drew five up-to-date Democratic-leaning districts, effectively neutralizing Texas’ move.

Legislators in Missouri and North Carolina then voluntarily redrawn their maps, while an amendment to the Ohio Constitution and a decision by the Utah Supreme Court led to up-to-date district lines in those states.

Ari Fleischer, former White House press secretary under Republican President George W. Bush, lamented Virginia’s results but called them a self-inflicted wound. States should stick to redistricting once every decade after the census, he said, criticizing the GOP strategy of trying to redistrict some states mid-decade.

“The GOP will now lose net seats across the country. If you’re going to fight, at least win it. The other side will always fight,” he wrote. “It was all predictable and avoidable. We shouldn’t have started this fight.”

Fleischer posted a link to a post he wrote in August in which he criticized GOP efforts in Texas as the state prepared to vote on a up-to-date map. “Mid-census change” is not the way to win more seats in the House, he said.

National Democrats celebrated.

“House Democrats crushed Donald Trump’s national gerrymandering plan,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York wrote on social media. “Maximum war, everywhere, all the time.”

What’s next?

Two more decisions could further change the landscape of House races before November.

Last year, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in a case challenging a provision of the Voting Rights Act that was interpreted to require majority-black districts in Southern states to be equal in population. Louisiana is challenging a lower court ruling that rejected a map that showed only one of the state’s six counties was majority Black, even though Blacks make up about one-third of the state’s population.

Depending on the scope and timing of the conservative court’s ruling, several safe and sound Democratic seats in the South could be at risk.

And in Florida, Republican Governor Ron DeSantis called the state legislature into a special session, are scheduled to start next weekto consider rezoning and other issues.

“Dummymanders”?

Florida Republicans have not fully supported the redistricting push, which could ultimately make some incumbents’ districts less reliable and red. Gerrymandering involves spreading a party’s voters across more districts, making it more tough to vote in some individual races, especially in a potential wave year.

“Republicans object, saying it will actually reduce their power in some of these districts,” Mucarsel-Powell said. “Because if that happens (a district favoring Republicans by five points), with all the better results we’ve seen, including here in the state of Florida, it will most likely favor Democrats.”

Jeffries, at a Wednesday morning news conference, practically dared Florida Republicans to gaunt out their U.S. House districts, comparing the effort to a Texas map that he said wasn’t as Republican as they thought, and calling the entire GOP effort a “dummy” that would backfire.

“Look around and find out,” Jeffries said. “If they go the way of the DeSantis dummy, Florida Republicans will be in the same situation as Texas Republicans who are currently on the run.”

“Republicans are fraudulently encroaching on minorities before a single vote is cast,” he added. “They started this war, and we will end it.”