In July, this series of polls had Hillary Clinton ahead by seven percentage points nationwide among registered voters. Now we’re two months later and it’s a tie. What’s changed? Well, as we noted earlier, Hillary had been trailing for weeks, but the Times and CBS News applied a likely voter filter to their results for the first time this cycle. Those two factors combine to bring this election to an exact tie nationwide. In case you’re curious, this survey was in the field from September 9 to 13, so only about half of the respondent data was collected after Mrs. Clinton’s medical incident and the subsequent opacity and manipulation. Note the division of the batch sample I calculated based on the pollster’s statistics:
NYT/CBS Poll (National/Likely Voters):
42 years senior
Hillary 42Sample D+5
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 15, 2016
The AD/R/I split of 37/32/31 does not seem unreasonable in the context of the last presidential election (D+7 in 2008, D+6 in 2012). Trump and Clinton are currently doing nearly equal among their parties’ bases, attracting 82 percent and 81 percent of self-identified supporters, respectively. Independents are tilting Republican by four points. But if the sample includes significantly more Democratic voters and the spread of independents isn’t very clear, how is Trump tied? The pair additional trends — enthusiasm and how newborn voters say they plan to vote:
Overall, only 43 percent of likely voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November. Fifty-one percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters say they are very enthusiastic about voting; 43 percent of Mrs. Clinton’s supporters They say they’re very enthusiastic… Independent candidates enjoy the greatest support among younger voters. Twenty-six per cent of voters aged 18 to 29 say they intend to vote for Mr Johnson, while a further 10 per cent support Ms Stein. Just over one in five independent politicians say they will vote for an independent candidate. Dissatisfaction with the major parties’ candidates is widespread. Of those who say they plan to vote for Mr. Trump or Ms. Clinton, just over half express sturdy support. The rest say they have reservations about their candidate or are simply voting to thwart the other candidate.
In low, many Americans are unhappy with their choices, but Trump supporters are eight points more likely to vote enthusiastically than Clinton supporters. More than a third (36 percent) of newborn people plan to show their disapproval of the two major party candidates by voting for either Libertarian Gary Johnson or Jill Stein of the Green Party. That’s a huge number, and it helps Trump. The actions of disaffected voters under 30 could prove to be an extremely essential factor in this race, for reasons analyzed by Jim Geraghty AND Allahpundit. What is somewhat unusual is that Americans they seem quite ambivalent about the opacity of candidates’ medical records, splitting down the middle on whether more information should be released (the poll was conducted before each campaign’s medical records were updated). Meanwhile, Quinnipiac National Poll this week shows that Clinton’s August lead has halved – from ten to five – among registered voters and is up two points among likely voters. Virtually All movement is headed in one direction, including key battleground states (I deleted a deleted tweet from Fox News’ John Roberts that reported that a fresh Monmouth poll in Iowa supposedly showed Trump with an eight-point lead):
Suffolk University Poll of Ohio Likely Voters – DT leads in HC 42-39, with GJ 4, JS 1, RD 1 and 12, ref 1. GJ is on the candidate list, but his party is not.
— David Paleologos (@davidpaleologos) September 15, 2016
Clinton +3 (with third parties) in Virginia https://t.co/vUueZVPtep Down from +6 among camper vans.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 15, 2016
Even in Virginia and Colorado, where regulations have been tightened significantly, we are one Pennsylvania Dead Heat poll from the full panic of Democrats. I’ll leave you with New York Times Breaking news that casts fresh doubt on the story that Donald Trump bribed Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi to drop the Trump University investigation in exchange for a gigantic campaign donation from his foundation. This fresh detail not for sure this isThere’s no way to prove this theory, but it makes the alleged evidence look a lot less vague:
Trump’s check to Pam Bondi’s PAC was issued BEFORE the news that her office was considering a lawsuit against Trump U. https://t.co/PhWX99IOkw
— Blake Hounshell (@blakehounshell) September 15, 2016
UPDATE – Here’s the poll from Iowa:
New Monmouth Poll of Likely Iowa Voters —
Trump: 45
Clinton: 37
Johnson: 8
9/12 to 9/14, 4.9 MOE
— Will Rahn (@willrahn) September 15, 2016
