Could the outcome of the 2016 presidential election be decided by a single state, as happened in 2008 when George Bush defeated Al Gore in a controversial vote count in Florida?
This is one of several electoral vote scenarios appearing in the news media that have been supported by specific numbers.
Politico, a website devoted exclusively to politics, reports that a poll conducted in Florida by a business group showed Hillary Clinton easily beating Donald Trump by 13 points in the key Sunshine State in the general election. It also shows her beating Ted Cruz by nine points.
“Why does this matter?” asks Chris Cillizza, who covers politics for The Washington Post. “Because if Clinton wins Florida and the 19 states that have voted for the Democratic candidate in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president,” he writes. “It’s that simple.”
These 19 states, including the District of Columbia, were won by every Democratic candidate from 1992 to 2012, gaining a combined 242 electoral votes: California, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.
Add Florida’s 29 electoral votes, and Clinton has 271. “Game over,” Cillizza says.
Compare that to the Republican electoral map, which he says is “definitely less friendly” to the GOP. Republicans have won 13 states in the last six presidential elections but have only won 102 electoral votes combined — meaning the GOP candidate needs to chase at least 168 more votes to reach 270.
However, the presidential election is still in its early stages and many factors could change the political dynamics of the race to the advantage or disadvantage of the two favorites.
Both have high, unfavorable poll numbers. A Gallup poll last month found that 43 percent of voters had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 47 percent had a very unfavorable opinion.
Clinton’s unfavorable ratings are also high, especially in Florida, where a statewide poll found that “a full 42 percent of Florida voters have a ‘very unfavorable’ opinion of her,” the Tampa Bay Times reported Monday.
Still, according to the Times, a poll by the Republican-leaning pollster Associated Industries of Florida (AIF) showed that Clinton would “handily beat both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz” in the general election.
For example, the newspaper reported that among Latino voters in Florida alone, who make up 14 percent of the electorate, “87 percent” of them view Trump negatively.
“Florida voters appear ready to reject Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as viable presidential candidates,” reads a note published by the Florida polling group AIF.
“In this key swing state, it is clear to us that Republicans continue to suffer significant brand damage among all segments of the growing electorate (younger voters, Latinos, and unaffiliated voters), and this presidential campaign has clearly hardened those attitudes,” the poll said.
“In short, this electorate is unstable and, in some segments, downright hostile. Voters don’t like the direction this country is headed or their current options for who should fix it,” the memo concluded.
Not only is the country’s electorate unstable, the race for the Republican Party nomination is also unstable.
Before Tuesday’s primary in Indiana, Trump had 996 delegates, still low of the 1,237 needed to secure the nomination. And 41 of his delegates remained “uncommitted,” meaning they had not committed to voting for Trump and could vote for Cruz, Ohio Gov. John Kasich or even Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who “suspended” his campaign but is still holding on to his delegates.
Combined, these candidates won 905 delegates in a concerted effort to prevent Trump from winning the Republican Party nomination.
Another 200 or so delegates “are unbound or assigned to a candidate who withdrew. Some of those delegates will be able to vote for any candidate on the first round of convention voting,” the Post’s Kevin Schaul writes.
“With fewer than 600 delegates left unassigned, and some wiggle room in those already assigned, here’s the race to watch: Will Trump get the 1,237 delegates, or everyone else?” he added.
Meanwhile, questions are emerging about whether Trump actually meant what he said about toning down the bombastic and explosive tone of his campaign as the nomination looms.
Up until that point, his candidacy had been marked by an endless stream of insults, name-calling, dismissive treatment of facts, and inciting his supporters at raucous rallies to “brutally treat” protesters.
Then, as his unfavorable ratings reached perilous levels, Trump said he intended to become much “more presidential” and tone down his rhetoric. Well, not entirely.
That won’t happen, says his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski. “In this race, it’s a given that Mr. Trump will be Mr. Trump. That is, he has appeal as a person who tells it like it is. Mr. Trump is a candidate who has the ability to change the narrative at any moment.”
Does this mean the Trump we’ve seen so far was an actor? That’s what his convention manager, Paul Manafort, recently admitted when he said Trump was playing a “role” in his run to the nomination and would be a very different person in the fall campaign.
It was all a calculated, uncompromising, hard-nosed act, as they say, but he’ll be a completely different person when he’s in the White House. Sure.
