Both of these guys can raise a lot of money – Bush certainly will. One thing Bush has in his favor is name recognition, while Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is still largely unknown for the general public. It may not be the same for Republican primary voters. While Gov. Walker seems to be galvanizing the base — and Bush seems to be getting more eye-rolls than praise — both men appear to be facing challenges in the 2016 season.
For Walker, he is a governor, a conservative, and he has successfully defended himself against the political left in the purple state. What’s more, he has managed to push a conservative agenda in the purple state. On a recent trip to New Hampshire, he pushed many, but Nate Cohn pours some chilly water on “Walker Mania”:
Mr. Walker could emerge as a stronger candidate in the general election than Mitt Romney. That’s not a particularly high bar. But his electoral record — three gubernatorial victories in four years in Wisconsin, including a recall election — isn’t as impressive as it sounds.
…
In fact, it could be argued that Mr. Walker’s performance was the least impressive of all the Republican gubernatorial candidates in the Midwest.
In neighboring and politically similar Iowa, Republican Terry Branstad won the election and re-election by a much larger margin than Mr. Walker.
To the east, in neighboring Michigan, Gov. Rick Snyder won by a similar margin in the more Democratic state despite also feuding with Labor.
In the South, the Republican candidate for governor won in the deep blue state of Illinois.
Further, Republicans won Ohio by gigantic majorities and in states where Democratic support was stronger than in Wisconsin, such as New Mexico, Maryland, Maine and Massachusetts.
…
What allowed the Republican candidates to overtake Mr. Romney so far? First, low turnout in the midterm elections. Republicans don’t really want to hear this, but much — though not all — of their success in 2010 and 2014 is simply the result of lower turnout. In Mr. Walker’s case, it probably explains half of the extent to which he outperformed Mr. Romney in 2012.
Turnout in Iowa, a party-registration state with many political and demographic similarities to Wisconsin, is illustrative. There, despite the efforts of vaunted Democratic turnout, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats by 6.8 percentage points in 2014 — compared with 1.3 percentage points in the 2012 presidential election.
That difference, a net 5.5 points in party registration alone, would have largely wiped out Mr. Walker’s 5.7-point victory if it had existed in Wisconsin. Moreover, Democratic modelers find that younger independent voters who only turn out for the presidential primary are more likely to lean Democratic than voters in the by-elections, suggesting an even bigger penalty for turnout in by-elections than the party registration data suggest.
The balance of polling data is consistent with the theory that Mr. Walker benefited from off-year turnout. In pre-election polls, Mr. Walker was consistently deadlocked among registered voters but finished with a significant lead among likely voters.
Cohn gives Walker credit for three election wins in the past four years, and says that doesn’t disqualify Walker from the nomination race—or that he’s not electable. He notes only that “the case for his electability doesn’t rest on his voting record.” He’s also a conservative, so his rise to the nomination will ultimately provide Democrats with plenty of material against him. Meanwhile, Big Labor, the Democrats’ best friend, couldn’t get him out of office; Walker was already on their hit list and the Democrats’. Now Republicans are firing on all cylinders over Walker’s supposed shift in views on issues from abortion to immigration. On a more positive note, Cohn added that fighting Big Labor is probably no longer a death sentence for Republicans. Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight he wrote How Republicans will search for an electable conservative candidate in 2016, and how presidential candidates historically tend to lean toward the middle with each term after leaving the White House:
Research from the past indicates that presidential candidates have become more moderate with each term in which their party fails to win the White House. Perhaps Republican primary voters will sacrifice ideology for electability, given that no Republican has won a presidential election since 2004. If that’s the case, Walker is probably in trouble. But if voters are willing to take a chance on someone very conservative who has an average chance of being elected, Walker has a real chance.
It seems that both outcomes are possible. Dan wrote about Hot air poll shows Walker with a clear lead among Republican voters nationwide. Jazz he wrote That WSJ/NBC News poll showed Rubio and Walker as the ones who got the lion’s share of Republican support. On the other hand, Jeb Bush, who I think represents the sacrifice of “ideology for choice,” also topped the list in that poll. However, I don’t know how Jeb Bush thinks he can survive saying that offering illegal immigrants a path to citizenship is “adult plan” on immigration.
Regardless, the former Florida governor continues to put on a good show as he prepares for a potential 2016 run. Still, despite being at the top of the ticket in WSJ survey, he is seeing his support evaporate:
The number of Republican primary voters who say they “might” support Mr. Bush fell to 49% in the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, down from 63% in December — a 14-point drop. It was by far the biggest drop among potential GOP candidates measured in both polls, and suggests trouble lies ahead.
The substantial news for Mr. Bush between the December and March polls was his announcement that he would “actively explore” the possibility of running for president. He made the announcement on Dec. 16, just two days after the last poll ended. Judging by the latest results, the people who will decide who the next candidate will be are not impressed.
…
Mr. Bush saw a 14-point drop, but the Wisconsin governor… Scott Walker saw a 20-point boost. Florida Senator Marco RubioThe numbers improved by 15 points. And the percentage of primary voters who said they could see themselves supporting the former Texas governor. Rick Perry increased by five points.
Again, both sides can ignore these polls because it’s too early to look into a crystal ball, but they do leave us with some questions about the leading candidates. Why does Bush feel the need to stick his head in the mouth of a crocodile, peddling an immigration argument that he knows is likely unpopular with Republican primary voters? Governor Scott Walker has said he’ll let the media drivel by, but how will he handle attacks from fellow Republicans, especially as more candidates declare their intentions? The media is already reporting on his opposition memos. He’ll have to address the media in some way; ignoring them a la Romney is not the best choice. We all saw that in 2012; it was torture. Walker hasn’t stumbled too badly in the media so far, but his comments at CPAC about being able to take on ISIS because he effectively crushed the wild leftist public sector unions in Wisconsin probably weren’t the best choice of words.
Walker neutralized potentially harmful problem with Iowa voters rejection of the casino project in Kenosha last January.
Again, nothing disqualifying. Just something to think about, since every candidate (of course) has flaws.
