Can we just close the White House for four years? In many ways, it’s as empty as Clint Eastwood’s chair has been for the last 7½, so how different would that be from closing up shop?
There is no shortage of candidates willing to take office, but there is also a shortage of candidates who could win the Republican Party nomination, meaning the prospect of an open convention is real.
Almost certainly, no candidate will walk into Cleveland with a majority of delegates. If the media is to be believed, it will lead to chaos and perhaps “riots” if one candidate or another does not win. But that is not something the Republican Party is unprepared for.
If no candidate receives a majority – 1,237 delegates – the possibilities are endless.
Much of the media babble revolves around the “Rule 40” in the Republican Party rules. You hear it often on TV and radio: “The Establishment will change Rule 40 and steal this nomination,” etc., etc.
What you don’t hear is that Rule 40 – and all party rules, for that matter – are changed before every convention. It’s not a grand conspiracy; it’s a fact.
The week before each GOP convention, the Rules Committee meets to lay out the rules for the convention. The committee handles every dull detail of the process and considers every grave proposal—with input from party insiders from across the country.
It’s dull work and usually uncontroversial. But it’s 2016 and nothing is uncontroversial, hence all the fuss about the Rule of 40. Well, really, the Rule of 40(b)
Currently, Rule 40(b) provides that “Each candidate for the nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States must demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more States, separately, before the name of a candidate may be presented for nomination.”
As it stands, that would mean that unless Ohio Gov. John Kasich pulls off a string of victories, the only people with a chance of being considered for the nomination are Ted Cruz and Donald Trump.
Changing or eliminating Rule 40(b) would open up the nominating process to more candidates, but only after delegates who are required to vote are released from the obligation to vote for the person they are required to vote for, which varies and is determined by each state. Depending on the state, this means between the first and third rounds of voting.
Since it is unlikely that anyone will reach 1,237 delegates, why limit the number of options?
The 40(b) rule is the way it is now not because of long-standing tradition, but because of Ron Paul. The thought of changing it now panics people, but it was changed pretty drastically in 2012.
The committee feared that delegates that Paul, a former Texas congressman, had secured would put his name forward for the nomination. That would not change the outcome—Romney had more than enough delegates to secure victory. But Romney’s team wanted a unanimous vote to present a united party front, so they pushed for a change in the criteria for submitting names for the nomination.
Rule 40(b) read as follows: “(b) Every candidate for the office of President of the United States and Vice President of the United States must demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more States, separately, before submitting his name for the office.”
Changing “plural” to “majority” and five states to eight are significant differences. Yet somehow controversy was avoided just four years ago.
It is almost a foregone conclusion that Rule 40(b) will be changed, but how it will be changed remains unknown. The same is true for all convention rules. Therefore, I may suggest the following: Add “after the third ballot, Rule 40(b) shall be null and void, and all delegates shall be unbound.”
If no one wins a majority of delegates before the convention—both pledged and unpledged—candidates will have three rounds of voting to win the support of pledged delegates over candidates who withdrew. If no candidate wins a majority after the third attempt, open up the options to everyone.
I know this will anger Cruz and Trump supporters, but that doesn’t matter. It will be a mess. It will be a fight. And it could end with a “new face” emerging as the consensus candidate. But it could also lead to a coalition forming around a candidate who could secure an early victory for the Republicans.
Knowing that the floodgates will open on the third ballot will force nominees to push harder, sooner. Nothing motivates like a demanding and speedy deadline.
It’s not a conspiracy that the convention rules are going to be changed; it’s a fact. Everyone knows it and everyone knew it. Anything you hear that contradicts what they’re saying is someone being uneducated or lying. It’s best to get it out there now, be open, and then hope it doesn’t become an issue, because either way, Cleveland is going to be a fight, and “none of the above” is not an option.