One of the reasons why leftists are I’m so mad at Matt Lauer is that they develop a delicate sweat from the lapels and attack. Hillary Clinton was already expected to run away from this election, but her gaping self-inflicted wounds and Trump’s slightly more disciplined style have combined to sharpen the contest considerably over the past three weeks. Not only are national polls fluctuating margin of error areabattlefield studies also reflect a closer race. Latest numbers from Quinnipiac:
New Quinnipiac Polls:
NC: Clinton leads 47-43
OH: Trump leads 46-45
PA: Clinton leads 48-43
FL: Draw 47-47https://t.co/pUCr6eiNTI— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) September 8, 2016
The ties in Ohio and Florida are good news for Trump, who was significantly outbid in both states. He trails by four in North Carolina (another recent poll showed the same thing) pro-Hillary advantageone sec this has Trump by a nose) is more worrisome. Pennsylvania’s number isn’t great, but it’s better than it’s been for him in months. Remember, no matter what Trump’s team may say, the Keystone State is a must-win for them, otherwise many other states would have to break through; a much, much harder road. The numbers above are from head-to-head polls. In a four-way fight, nothing changes in terms of advantage… except for the Buckeye State:
Poll Q: In the 4-way race, all battleground margins are the same as in the 2-way race. Except OH, where Trump is gaining ground. photo:twitter.com/KoHJduJwBb
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 8, 2016
Summary: Trump’s standing has undoubtedly improved, even if he and Hillary remain in the upper 30s or lower 40s when Johnson and Stein are included. Hillary Clinton is still the favorite to win this race, but her standing has slipped, and her constant lies and obfuscations will likely continue to push away voters who have never been particularly drawn to her. A parting thought: It’s conceivable that Quinnipiac also polled the Senate race in all four of these states, each of which is crucial and competitive. Given the pattern of Rubio (FL), Portman (OH), Toomey (PA), consistently outperforming Trump by significant margins in previous polls, there could be additional positive GOP news from this data set in the next few days. I expect relatively close races with all four incumbent Republican senators leading or tied. Stay tuned.
