Supporters gather to protest Medicaid cuts. Federal data shows that Medicare covers nearly two-thirds of births to black babies in the U.S., and congressional cuts to the program limit reproductive health care in black and low-income communities. (Photo: Bert Shepherd/Courtesy of Protect Our Care PAC)
Ohio will lose 51,000 jobs and $5.3 billion from the state economy in 2029, according to a up-to-date analysis.
That’s the effect cuts to Medicaid and food assistance will have in the massive 2025 spending bill when they become fully implemented. It also comes as a consequence of Republicans allowing Affordable Care Act subsidies to expire at the end of last year, according to Commonwealth Fund Analysis which was released last week.
These losses occurred even though Ohio would receive $200 million for rural health care from a fund that Republicans included in the spending bill. The analysis said the measure was intended to address concerns that Medicaid cuts could result in the closure of rural hospitals.
“While the $10 billion injection into state economies for rural health contributes to some economic growth, it is dwarfed by $31 billion in cuts to federal funding for ACA marketplaces,” the analysis said.
This is a reference to pandemic-era subsidies for purchasing insurance in Affordable Care Act markets.
When Congress allowed them to expire, most 600,000 Ohioans who purchased insurance on the exchanges saw double premiums for their plans. This led many to switch to cheaper, lower quality plans and many others to leave the market altogether. KFF reports that registration in Ohio dropped by 20% this year.
The Commonwealth Fund report shows that even greater losses for the state threaten when the provisions of Trump’s “Big Beautiful Act” come into force.
The legislation cut Medicaid by more than $900 billion over 10 years. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly known as food stamps or EBT, was also cut by $187 billion.
In addition to deep cuts to the safety net, the bill signed by Trump delivered massive tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans. Commonwealth Fund analysis found this would represent another upward redistribution of wealth.
“Under the (Trump spending bill), cuts to health and nutrition programs largely harm lower-income Americans, while tax cuts primarily benefit higher-income Americans,” it said.
“(The Congressional Budget Office) estimates that Americans in the lowest 10% of income will lose about $1,200 a year (3.1% of their income), while those in the highest 10% of income will gain $13,600 a year (2.7% of their income). Other analyzes have reached similar conclusions.”
The cuts won’t just hurt low-income Americans, but will hurt the state’s entire economy, the analysis shows. This is a consequence of the withdrawal of huge streams of funds for health care and food.
“In 2029, federal funding for Medicaid will decline by $90.9 billion, resulting in a $118.5 billion decline in state GDP,” it said.
“Medicaid cuts also mean a reduction of 996,000 jobs nationwide in 2029, half of which will be health care-related, including in hospitals, clinics, pharmacies or nursing homes. The states with the greatest job losses are California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Texas, Arizona, Ohio and Michigan, which are losing between 150,200 and 36,600 jobs.”
Ohio was projected to lose the eighth-most jobs, 51,200.
It also said the state would lose $4.4 billion in federal funds, thereby reducing state GDP by $5.4 billion and state and local revenues by $368 million.
The single biggest Medicaid savings measure in the Trump spending law is a broader, more stringent work requirement.
However, a Commonwealth Fund report predicted that it would be even harder for beneficiaries to find work as a result.
“Supporters of the bill explained that the budget cuts were intended to exclude ‘undeserving’ groups from access to benefits, such as able-bodied people who chose not to work, arguing that these changes would ultimately help them obtain jobs and incomes,” it said.
“Yet evidence shows that work requirement programs do little to increase employment because they do not address the root causes of unemployment. Moreover, by reducing the number of jobs in low-income communities, the new law could make it even more difficult for people to find work.”
