Kasich: Last hope for anti-Trump wing of GOP; UPDATED: Clinton wins Ohio; UPDATED: Ohio leans on Kasich

UPDATE:Clinton wins Ohio with more than 60 percent of the vote.

UPDATE II:Kasich wins in Ohio; looks like we’re entering contentious convention territory.

Kasich defeated Trump by a vote of 43/34.

How he won:

Wasserman’s colleague, Nate Silver wonders what Kasich should do next:

Kasich needs a contentious convention to win, so what will he do next? One answer is to stay away from Cruz. That could mean focusing on northeastern states like New York, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, where Cruz has little chance of winning but Kasich has high positive ratings.

Wisconsin, where the vote is April 5, could be a tougher choice because the state’s delegates are awarded to a winner-take-all (some by congressional district, some by statewide vote). It’s basic to imagine both Kasich and Cruz finding pockets of support in Wisconsin, but Trump winning the state with 40 percent of the vote, while Kasich and Cruz have 30 percent each.

UPDATE III:Kasich delivered his victory speech while throwing tons of confetti:

Ohio Gov. John Kasich had some very kind words for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in his victory speech today. After 29 primaries, Kasich finally won his home state in what turned out to be a crucial battle to deny Donald Trump the delegates he needs to clinch the nomination.

Kasich boasted about his accomplishments as governor, when he said 400,000 jobs had been created during his tenure, the state had a $2 billion surplus, pensions were secure, taxes had been cut and no one was left behind — neither the working destitute nor the mentally ill.

He said his whole life has been about creating a climate of opportunity for people and that it is very rewarding when people believe in you, bring people together and move our country forward. He said that we are Americans before we were Democrats and Republicans and that the spirit of the country lies in us, not in some great politician. Instead, he compared the country to a mosaic. He also cited how common sense conservative solutions can produce results.

Of course, he thanked the people of the great state of Ohio for his victory.

Still, some members of Kasich’s team will have to grapple with a certain concept – and it’s not a particularly good one:

Is there any positive side to this situation?

*Live election results here*

Ohio and Florida will be in the spotlight tonight as Donald Trump looks to deal a death blow to the presidential campaigns of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Gov. John Kasich (R-OH). The election tonight is a winner-take-all, meaning if Trump manages to capture all 66 Buckeye State delegates and Florida’s 99, there’s little standing in the way of him becoming the 2016 Republican nominee. (via Charlie Cook):

If Kasich holds on to his home state of Ohio, Trump’s delegate climb will be steep. Trump has won 44 percent of all delegates elected so far. Imagine a straight, diagonal line from zero delegates in the lower left at the start of the race to 1,237 in the upper right, the bare minimum needed to secure the nomination. Check back each week to see if Trump is above or below that trajectory to that magic number. A Trump loss in the Buckeye State would raise the share of remaining delegates he would need to win to nearly 60 percent, a very unlikely feat. So Trump really needs Ohio. If Rubio wins Florida, where polls show a very close race, and Kasich loses Ohio, Trump would be in the same boat. If Trump wins both, the GOP should get used to the idea of ​​a real estate mogul and reality star as its nominee.

Since March, Polls show that Kasich is not only the best chance for the anti-Trump wing of the GOP to strip Trump of the delegates he needs to win the nomination; that fact could be a cause for consternation for the campaigns of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rubio, who are trying to win votes as quickly as possible. But the Ohio governor recently took the lead. Guy also mentioned a surge in Kasich’s support this week. Either way, Ohio could make for a long election night.

Just now, FiveThirtyEight gave Kasich 80 percent chances of winning his state’s primary, while echoing Cook’s observation that if Trump loses in Ohio, he won’t be able to reach that magic number of 1,237.

One wild card in this contest is that Rubio’s communications director has essentially said that Rubio supporters should vote for Kasich in Ohio to stop Trump. While Rubio’s vote count has fallen in the state in the past few weeks, any Rubio fan who moves into Kasich’s column could make a substantial difference. The significance of these primaries for the broader Republican race is difficult to overstate. By my math (and the math of Republican Benjamin Ginsberg, who essentially wrote the GOP delegate rules), Trump likely won’t reach the majority of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination if he loses in Ohio.

So for anti-Trump Republicans, Kasich is the last hope for stopping Trump. You may still be furious that he decided to support President Obama’s health care law by expanding Medicaid, but Mr. Kasich is in a better position than Rubio to curb the Trumpites. If Rubio somehow manages to win Florida and Kasich loses Ohio, Trump I have the same problem delegate math. In the unlikely scenario that Rubio and Kasich win their states, the blood sports will continue, with renewed energy for the Florida senator’s campaign. The primary map for Rubio is getting more favorable as we head into April, but first things first; let’s see how he does in Florida. And Kasich will likely become an anti-Trump hero tonight.