It looks increasingly likely that the race for the Republican Party’s nomination for president in 2016 will be decided at the convention in Cleveland.
A growing group of senior Republican party leaders and fundraisers who believe Donald Trump or Ted Cruz would deliver a victory for Democrats in November say they want a “third choice” when their party meets in July to choose a candidate to beat Hillary Clinton in November.
Trump has already hinted at this possibility, warning last month, and perhaps even threatening, that there would be a “riot” if the convention that seeks to block his nomination rejects his nomination.
“I think we’ll win before we get to the convention, but I can tell you what would happen if we didn’t, and we were 20 votes short or 100 short and we had 1,000 and someone else had 500 or 400, because we’re way ahead of everyone else… I think there would be a riot,” he told CNN.
But with the nomination coming down to just two men, which many Republicans fear could divide the Republican Party and threaten its majority in Congress, the number one issue being discussed among the GOP’s top leadership is now working out a middle ground.
Preparations for such an eventuality gained modern momentum after the Wisconsin primary, in which Cruz decisively defeated Trump, severely undermining the billionaire real estate mogul’s seemingly unstoppable march to the nomination.
When the smoke from that battle cleared and exit polls were analyzed, the result was more of an endorsement of Cruz’s radical agenda than an endorsement of him.
Behind the scenes, Trump’s candidacy had been on the rise for weeks, with his candidacy seemingly gaining traction. But that sentiment has taken a back seat in a series of flawed interviews that revealed he didn’t know what he was talking about on defense, foreign policy, trade and a host of other issues. His unfavorable poll numbers have soared, showing that a growing number of voters now consider his candidacy “scary” or even “terrible.”
In a Gallup poll, seven in ten women had an unfavorable view of him. In a dozen other polls, at least 60 percent of all voters, women, minorities, and independent undecided voters, had an unfavorable view of him.
The one remark Trump made that proved most damaging was when he was asked if abortions were illegal, should women be punished for having them? He stumbled as he tried to find an answer, then blurted out that women should be punished. He later tried to undo his mistake, but it was too delayed.
The most astonishing discovery was that he was not fluent in many of the most significant issues of the campaign and was improvising as it went along.
Fact checkers have had a field day poring over his wildly incorrect statistics. He recently said the United States spends “billions and billions” on NATO defense, which he irrationally wants to cut. The Defense Department estimates the figure at $500 million.
Cruz celebrated his victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, but there was no reaction from top Republican Party leadership to support his call for party unity and embrace his candidacy.
Over the past three years, Cruz has developed a reputation in the Senate as a cruel, divisive speaker who is viewed in the party’s highest councils as poorly as Trump, if not worse.
Everything you wanted to know about Ted Cruz was summed up in Thursday’s Washington Post headline: “After Years of Burning Bridges, Cruz Struggles to Prove He Can Build Ones, Too.”
He began his “holier-than-the-pope” Senate career with a signature filibuster, during which he read a Dr. Seuss bedtime story to his children. He then destroyed age-old Senate decorum by attacking Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell during a floor debate, calling him a “liar.”
That has made him a political leper in the body, and is one of the main reasons only two low-profile senators support him. “In a chamber where Cruz has irritated his colleagues, the fiery Texan is proving a tough sell,” Post said.
It’s no wonder that in a race for the Republican nomination in which the favorite is hated by women and the runner-up is hated in Congress, many Republicans are looking for someone else to carry the party banner.
“I think stopping Donald Trump has to be the No. 1 goal, and I think uniting around Ted Cruz in future primaries is important,” billionaire Republican donor Frank VanderSloot, who has endorsed Marco Rubio, told the Post. “But I’m not enamored with Ted Cruz, nor are many of my friends, and I think everyone is hoping that this is going to be a brokered convention where we have a third choice,” he said.
That sentiment seems to reflect the sentiment of many Republicans, and party officials now acknowledge that it is very likely that the convention will be fought over a third option.
Republican Party Chairman Reince Priebus, who once said a brokered convention was “highly unlikely,” is making the rounds on TV talk shows saying it’s possible. He adds that there’s “nothing nefarious” about it.
That’s certainly what Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who is running in third place and has promised to make it all the way to the convention just in case, is counting on and planning. That’s why Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who suspended his campaign, is also holding on to his delegates.
Despite Trump’s threats of riots, veteran GOP strategist Donald Devine reminds us that his “opponents have more delegates on the first ballot than” he does: 831 versus 743. In a widely read party strategy memorandum, Devine points out that delegates, not primary votes, are what matter in a brokered convention.
He notes that “Trump has yet to win a majority of the popular vote in any state,” and then adds, “If (his opponents) unite, they will defeat him.”
