All 15 Ohio state representatives will face voters in November, but few races are as close as this one.
Democrat Joyce Beatty and Republican Jim Jordan both have rivals in their districts, but the territory favors their parties so much that their victories are all but certain. In Ohio’s 2nd Congressional District, a extensive stretch of rural and Appalachian Ohio, nearly a dozen Republican candidates have poured into this year’s primary — some of them from outside the district — for exactly the same reason.
There are only three races in the state that seem really competitive. All three seats are currently held by Democrats, but the incumbents are facing legitimate Republican candidates. Two of those candidates have campaign experience and name recognition from long careers in state government; the third has powerful ties to the GOP in his county.
Campaigns filed their quarterly financial reports this week, and the headline numbers follow a familiar pattern — incumbents have a powerful lead in fundraising and cash on hand. Still, a lot can change between now and November.
What about the rest of the map?
Even though only three congressional seats in Ohio are currently up for grabs, that doesn’t mean the results of the remaining elections are a foregone conclusion.
In Ohio’s 6th District, former state Sen. Michael Rulli won a special election to fill the unexpired term of former U.S. Rep. Bill Johnson last month. The seat flipped from one Republican to another was no surprise, but the margin was. Rulli dramatically outstripped his opponent, first-time Democratic candidate Michael Kripchak, but won by about 9 points in a district that flipped to the Republicans by about 18 points In recent years.
Ohio’s 7th District will feature a rematch between U.S. Rep. Max Miller, R-OH, and Democrat Matthew Diemer. Miller won easily in 2022, but this time there’s a twist — former Cleveland mayor and congressman Dennis Kucinich is running as an independent. While Kucinich was previously a Democrat, his recent rhetoric has been reminiscent of conservative viewpoints or conspiracy theorists.
And in Ohio’s 15th District, U.S. Rep. Mike Carey, R-OH, will face state Rep. Adam Miller, D-OH. Race observers like The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball still consider the seat secure for Republicans, but with his experience as an elected official and activist, Miller could exceed expectations.
OH-1: Cincinnati Area
Ohio’s 1st Congressional District connects the city of Cincinnati with the more conservative Warren County in the northeast. Newly minted U.S. Rep. Greg Landsman, D-OH, is defending his seat against Orlando Sonza, who has experience as a CPA and assistant prosecutor in Hamilton County. An Army veteran and West Point graduate, Sonza currently heads the Hamilton County Veterans Affairs Commission. Before serving in Congress, Landsman was a teacher and a member of the Cincinnati City Council.
Landsman raised nearly half a million dollars in the second quarter, compared with Sonza’s $204,000. He also started the quarter with more money in the bank. At the end of June, Landsman had $1.9 million in cash; Sonza had nearly a quarter million. Neither candidate has any outstanding campaign loans.
About half of Landsman’s quarterly fundraising came from the Democratic platform ActBlue, with another $45,000 in donations channeled through the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC. Landsman also received support from several colleagues, organized labor and professional interest groups.
Sonza’s biggest checks so far are an indication of how closely Republicans across the country are watching his race. In addition to support from the National Republican Congressional Committee, which backs GOP House candidates nationwide, Sonza has received support from House Speaker Mike Johnson’s PAC, known as American Revival. He has also received checks from Koch Industries’ PAC and former U.S. Sen. Rob Portman’s campaign committee.
In terms of spending, neither candidate has made a huge splash in advertising yet. Their biggest spenders so far have been printing, polling, and consulting.
OH-9 Toledo and Northwest Ohio
U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-OH, is the longest-serving woman in Congressional history, but since the last round of redistricting, she has been a target for Republicans looking to flip the seat. Instead of a snake in a lake, Ohio’s 9th District is now a toss-up that stretches across the rural northwest corner of the state.
The Republican problem has been their own inability to field a viable candidate. In 2022, J.R. Majewski beat out two veteran state legislators for the nomination but lost after reports that he had exaggerated his military experience. This cycle, the Republican primary has been a bit of a circular firing squad. Former state Rep. Craig Riedel’s candidacy was tarnished by a secret recording in which he criticized Donald Trump. Majewski jumped into the race, then dropped out — twice — before the party settled on state Rep. Derek Merrin, R-Monclova Twp., at the last minute.
Merrin raised about a quarter of a million dollars in the second quarter and enters the summer with just over $400,000 in his pocket. He also loaned the campaign $30,000. Kaptur, taking advantage of the privilege of office and a long start, raised more than $650,000 in the quarter and has $2.6 million in his pocket.
House Republican leaders, including Speaker Johnson himself, have encouraged Merrin to enter the race, and their influence is evident in his fundraising. The second- and third-largest donations he has reported have come from joint committees controlled by Johnson and his deputy, Majority Leader Steve Scalise. The largest inflow was $90,000 in transfers from Merrin’s joint fundraising committee with the National Republican Congressional Committee. He has also received donations through the Club for Growth and checks from business groups such as the U.S. Chamber and the National Federation of Independent Business.
Kaptur has raised nearly $300,000 from individuals through ActBlue. Trade associations and labor unions are also well represented, with contributions from the United Auto Workers, general contractors, dockworkers and miners. She has also received contributions from agricultural interest groups, including corn and soybean farmers—Kaptur serves on the Appropriations Subcommittee overseeing agriculture and rural development, among other positions.
Neither campaign has yet to spend money on campaign ads. Kaptur’s biggest expenses so far have been polling and consulting. She has spent just over $3,000 on direct mail or TV and digital ads. Merrin, by contrast, spent close to $25,000 on direct mail this quarter, but not on the Kaptur contest. Before the current quarter, Merrin’s campaign had amassed $120,000 in campaign communications services purchased on credit. His campaign still owes just over $95,000.
OH-13 Akron and Canton
In Summit County, another first-term Democrat is running to keep her seat. But U.S. Rep. Emilia Sykes, D-OH, faces a more experienced opponent, former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin.
It had been several years since Coughlin held public office, but he first won election to the state House in 1996 before being appointed to a vacant state Senate seat. He then won two terms in the upper chamber before resigning in 2010 due to term limits. After that, Coughlin considered running for U.S. Senate against Sherrod Brown but ultimately decided against it.
Among the GOP candidates, Coughlin raised the most cash in the second quarter, about $370,000. He also lent his campaign $150,000.
Like Merrin, some of his biggest donations have come from Republican Party leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives. Speaker Johnson’s Grow the Majority joint fundraising committee sent Coughlin more than $35,000, and his American Revival PAC sent another $5,000. Majority Leader Scalise’s joint committee sent just under $22,000, and his personal PAC chipped in another $2,000. In terms of advocacy groups, Coughlin has received support from American Builders and Contractors, as well as a trade group representing electrical contractors. Coughlin has also raised close to $100,000 from individuals through the GOP fundraising platform WinRed.
Sykes, like other Democrats, brought in a significant portion of her fundraising through ActBlue, about $300,000 in total. But she added donations from several other intermediary organizations. Emily’s List, which supports Democrats who support reproductive rights, gave nearly $40,000. Swing Left, which supports Democrats in swing districts, sent about $6,000. Interestingly, two pro-Israel organizations that don’t always see eye to eye have funneled thousands into Sykes’s campaign. AIPAC sent her about $18,500, and J Street about $16,500.
As in other races, neither campaign has started buying ads. Sykes has spent about $14,000 on mailers, but other than that, the campaign’s biggest expenses so far have been polling and consulting. Like Merrin, Coughlin took on debt to cover some of his expenses last quarter, but he paid off all of that debt, about $16,500, by the end of the current reporting period.
Follow OCJ Reporter Nick Evans on Twitter.
