A recent NBC News poll shows Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump in the general election shrinking slightly, as Leah mentioned this morning. Her five-point lead has fallen to three points, which is within the margin of error. The poll also marks the second set of national data released this week showing that a solid majority of voters believe she should be impeached. WaPo/ABC News the poll showed that public disapproval of the decision to “not initiate criminal proceedings” is (35/56), while NBC reports that same overall result:
One in five Hillary Supporters believe she should be charged. These are people who are clearly among the vast number of Americans who would support a woman who faces busy criminal proceedings related to the presumptive GOP nominee. Fully 82 percent respondents believe Clinton’s email behavior was inappropriate. In addition to tightening the race, the recent poll also shows an erosion of Clinton’s already faint approval rating. It now stands at (38/60), or 22 points lower. That’s good news for Donald Trump. The bad news is that, just after Clinton endured a painful week of news in which she was publicly and unequivocally reprimanded by the FBI for her irresponsible handling of her inappropriate email pattern, her lead barely budged. She was lambasted for her confirmed lies, and her negative ratings rightly rose — yet Trump still remain worse. Bloomberg also released recent data collected in July that confirms a disturbing trend in the Trump campaign, namely that Clinton has opened up significant advantage Among college-educated white voters, a demographic group that has been included by every Republican presidential candidate since 1956:
Clinton beats Trump among college-educated voters in recent poll @bpolitics vote https://t.co/5eB0uX50hX photo:twitter.com/EYstvLWsnb
— Bloomberg Politics (@bpolitics) July 12, 2016
Trump is unlikely to surpass Mitt Romney with nonwhite voters, and while he will certainly do better with working-class whites, he can’t afford to lose other white voters in the process. Remember, Romney won the white vote by 20 points, and he still lost the election. And the blows keep coming. Associated Press Press Agency reports that Trump’s field operations, which were carried out by the RNC (outsourced to the party because Trump simply did not mount a credible domestic operation), are fail to keep up with expectations. Field play matters, so here are the red flags:
The presidential battleground states were supposed to be teeming with GOP workers. “We’ve gone to thousands and thousands of workers,” party chairman Reince Priebus said in March, comparing it to the GOP’s late-stage surge of cadres four years earlier. “We’re covering districts across the country in a way we’ve never done before.” That hasn’t happened, according to a state-by-state review by The Associated Press. With early voting starting in some states in less than three months, The review found that the Republican Party delivered only a fraction of the ground forces detailed in talks with state leaders earlier in the year. And that leaves local officials waiting for reinforcements to keep up with Democrat Hillary Clinton in the swing states that matter most in 2016…. Of course, the national party has indeed reached record fundraising levels in the past few years and has put on a much more solid field than it did in 2012. But officials acknowledge that the real competition is not their past record or the chronically underfunded Democratic Party. It is Clinton and what GOP Chairman Priebus calls “that Clinton fundraising machine.” Here are a few examples of the GOP shortfalls: Ohio Republicans thought they could hire 220 paid personnel by May; they actually have about 50. Pennsylvania plans called for 190 paid personnel; they have about 60. Iowa’s planned ground force of 66 by May actually has between 25 and 30. In Colorado, recent layoffs left about two dozen workers, far brief of the planned 80.
AND canyon dividing Clinton, Trump TV ad spending remains high:
Hillary Clinton and her allies’ spending on Florida TV: $12.3 million
Trump and his allies’ spending on Florida TV: $78Khttps://t.co/EVk3M8Baw4— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) July 11, 2016
The negative assessment in this case is that Democrats work and spend more than Trump, which allows their unpopular candidate to stay in power. enduring management over an even more unpopular Democrat-turned-Republican. The silver lining is that, despite her enormous institutional advantages, Clinton is not running away from this race. National and key polls show Hillary ahead, but Trump remains within striking distance — despite his well-documented structural deficiencies. I’ll leave you with two pieces of fresh data. Will Trump he rushed forward in the undecided state of Iowa in one poll, while nationally the ratings are falling?
URGENT: IOWA
President: Trump 44 / Clinton 42
US Sen: Grassley 52 / Judge 42Full results with third party data will be published soonhttps://t.co/xoMxxbmQtH
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) July 12, 2016
#BREAKING National general election:
Clinton 41 (+12)
29 years aged
Johnson (L) 9
Stone (G) 2
Undecided 18@RABAresearch photo: twitter.com/wmtPlU5Tmu— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 12, 2016
