Hillary leads nationally, Trump has enthusiasm advantage, battlefields are fierce

It was an eventful weekend of politics – and in between I came back “the deplorable” are slandering her too shrouded in mystery staggering and falling at a 9/11 commemoration event in New York City was not good for Hillary Clinton. Nevertheless, Washington Post and ABC News published fresh national survey yesterday, which included relatively good news for Hillary Clinton, although the Republicans’ improved unification around Donald Trump and the difference in intensity make the race competitive. Clinton has a large lead among adults and registered voters, as well as in head-to-head matches. But when a likely voter filter is applied to the data, her lead shrinks to a more manageable deficit for Trump — who is nonetheless stuck in his familiar range from mid 30’s to overdue 40’s. It seems that the longer independent candidates remain statistically significant in the polls, the better for Trump:

WaPo/ABC (+/- August)

2-way
C-51 (+1)
T-43 (+1)

4-way
C-46 (-2)
T-41 (+1)
J-9 (+2)
S-2https://t.co/89ukul1XvD photo:twitter.com/lJGJeWF1MV

— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) September 11, 2016

An eight-point lead nationally in a head-to-head race is impressive, but Gary Johnson and Jill Stein disproportionately dilute Hillary’s support, unpopular favorite many Americans are looking for an excuse to vote against her. With registered voters, she has 11 (two-way) and 10 (four-way) points, respectively, suggesting that an elite turnout operation could enhance her advantage. Among adults, the numbers are 15 and 13 points. Digging below the top lineThe best news for Hillary is that she leads Trump on all four sets of issues surveyed — close on several (economy +4, terrorism +3, immigration +2), with a more pronounced gap on others (taxes +9, trade +16). She also leads him on candidate traits, though by single digits. Except for one essential metric:

Once again, the giant Trump lack of qualifications can be greatly mitigated by robust, edged, informed debate performances. Is he doing what he needs to do to seize his chance? Based on some public statementsThere are reasons to be skeptical. We’ll see. Here’s the best news for Trump in this poll:

A Clear Gap in Enthusiasm and Trump improvement among Republican voters, they’re holding him to this issue right now. In the meantime, we’ve also been treated to a lot of key state survey yesterday, where the results were mixed:

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump’s Fight Expands to New Battlegrounds https://t.co/XthwSIq7Uo ??

— Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) September 11, 2016

Arizona and Georgia (McCain/Romney states) are margin-of-error races according to the NBC/WSJ numbers, but so are Nevada and New Hampshire (Obama won each twice). And then there are CBS News/YouGov Results of the two biggest state awards:

New CBS/YouGov OH and FL polls:

Oh
Clinton 46
39 years aged
Johnson 7
Stone 2

Florida
Clintonowa 44
42 years aged
Johnson 5
Stone 2https://t.co/hkXoHmWSlY

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 11, 2016

This result in Ohio is a bit unusual at the moment, but Florida looks hit. We have nothing fresh from critical Pennsylvania, but this analysis should give Trump supporters pause for thought, counting on a slew of “secret Trump voters” to propel him into the lead in a state where he’s consistently trailing. I’ll leave you with another follow-up to a post I wrote about the Senate overdue last week. Quinnipiac published surveys on Friday, showing Republican incumbents with clear leads in Ohio and Florida, and narrow or narrow leads in North Carolina and Pennsylvania. The NBC/WSJ results set contained more promising news for the GOP:

Senate:

Arizona
McCain (R) 57
Kirkpatrick (D) 38

New Hampshire
Ayotte (R) 52
Hassan (D) 44

Nevada
Hell (R) 47
Cortez (D) 45

NBC/WSJ poll

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 11, 2016

McCain up and Nevada very close and Heck up by a nose are not unusual or surprising results. Kelly Ayotte over 50 percent and leading by eight is both unusual and surprising. For now, it looks like exception (This poll also includes the New Hampshire presidential race.) more competitive than many others), but Republicans are more than content to accept it. Either way, Ayotte surpassing Trump is another reassuring data point for the Senate Republican Party.