Art: Morgan Trau, WEWS.
Ohio Democrats hope to flip at least six seats to break the Republican advantage, changing the balance of power in the Statehouse.
Some of the most vital races are taking place in the Legislature as Democrats prepare for a competitive general election.
Ohio House Minority Leader Dani Isaacsohn, D-Cincinnati, said 2026 is as good as it could be for Democrats because of the level of frustration with Republican leadership.
Democrats are considering 10 seats won by the GOP, but Isaacsohn said they are mainly focused on eight.
There are currently 65 Republicans and 34 Democrats in the House. Having 60 seats means a majority.
“We need a governor who can govern when Dr. (Amy) Acton wins in November,” Isaacsohn said, referring to the governor’s race between Acton, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Libertarian Don Kissick.
If Democrats win 40 seats, Republicans also won’t be able to pass a resolution on the ballot without bipartisan support.
Of the eight targeted sites, five are in northeast Ohio, two in the Dayton area and one near Columbus.
Top eight
District 17: southwestern Cuyahoga County, including Strongsville, North Royalton and Berea
Incumbent Mike Dovilla, R-Berea, will face Democrat Megan Coy.
District 31: northern and western Summit County, including Cuyahoga, Copley and Barberton Falls
It is the seat of term-limited state Rep. Bill Roemer, R-Richfield. Democrat J. Noah Spinner will race against Republican Mike Kahoe.
District 35: Parts of Geauga, Portage and Summit counties, including Twinsburg, Aurora and Streetsboro
It is the seat of state Rep. Steve Demetriou, R-Bainbridge Township, who is running for state Senate.
Democrat Samantha Salamon will face Republican Vic Sandhu.
District 36: eastern Montgomery County, including Kettering and parts of downtown Dayton
Incumbent Andrea White, R-Kettering, is being challenged by Democrat Rose Lounsbury.
District 39: Northern Montgomery County, including Northridge, Huber Heights and Englewood
It is the home of state Rep. Phil Plummer, R-Dayton, who is running for state Senate.
Democrat Daquan Neal is competing against Republican Mark Campbell.
District 49: Central Stark County, including Canton, Avondale and McDonaldsville
Incumbent Jim Thomas, R-Jackson Township, will race against Democrat Krista Allison.
District 52: northeastern Lorain County, including North Ridgeville, Elyria and Avon
It is the seat of state Rep. Gayle Manning, R-Avon, who is running for state Senate.
Her son, state Sen. Nathan Manning, R-North Ridgeville, was scheduled to run for the position but dropped out when he was appointed to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.
Democrat Mike Baker will run against whoever Lorain County Republicans decide.
District 60: Western Delaware County, including Delaware, Powell and Lewis Center
Incumbent Brian Lorenz, R-Powell, will face Democrat Shelby Kimball.
Extra two
If it’s a really good year, Isaacsohn said, they’ll monitor one site in Cincinnati and one outside Toledo.
District 29: Western Hamilton County, including Harrison, Mount Healthy and New Baltimore
Incumbent Cindy Abrams, R-Harrison, is being challenged by Democrat Jonathan Bradner.
District 44: Parts of Lucas, Ottawa and Wood counties, including Sylvania, Monclova and Whitehouse
It is the seat of state Rep. Josh Williams, R-Sylvania Township, who ran in the GOP primary for Congress but lost.
Democrat David J. Fournier will face Republican Edward L. Schimmel and independent Lyndsey Stough.
Strategy
Isaacsohn said Democrats did their calculations by looking at past races as well as demographic changes.
“In 2024, there are eight districts where Sherrod Brown received a majority of the vote,” Isaacsohn said.
House Districts 31, 35, 39 and 52 of the top eight seats they want are open and their incumbents are not running. Of the ten, five are open.
Districts 31, 35, 36 and 49 were won during the Republican wave by only about 3,000 votes, or about 5%.
Their biggest focus? Precincts 31 and 35 in Summit County, which have held races for the past few cycles.
Those seats are reasonable, but unlikely to be flipped, according to Republican strategist Bob Clegg.
“Democrats don’t have a lot of seats they can fill,” Clegg said.
He said Democrats will likely do better this year, but he doesn’t think they will break the majority because Republicans were responsible for redistricting.
“We did a good job doing our jobs, and we don’t have to worry,” he said.
Clegg believes the easiest districts to flip are Districts 17 in Strongsville, 52 in Lorain, 44 in Toledo and 60 outside Columbus. But he doesn’t think Democrats will have the resources.
“They can expand their goals, but the question is, ‘Will they have the money to really engage with some of these districts?’” he asked.
Isaacsohn said they are leaning toward the affordability message and says it resonates with voters.
“Restore more balance to a country that desperately needs a government that will actually start serving the people,” he said.
Now for the annoying saying: These races are really going to depend on turnout.
In Ohio’s midterm elections, turnout is not as high as in presidential years, but for the past fifty years it has typically been around 50% of eligible voters.
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This article was originally published on News5Cleveland.com and are published in the Ohio Capital Journal under a content sharing agreement. Unlike other OCJ articles, it is not available for free republication on other news outlets because it is owned by WEWS in Cleveland.
