Do Republicans have a realistic chance of winning the next presidential election? Some analysts suggest the answer is no. They argue that there is a “blue wall” of 240 electoral votes from 18 states and D.C. that have gone to Democrats in the last six presidential elections.
The Democratic candidate needs only 30 electoral votes to win the presidency, they correctly note. The Republican candidate, they suggest, has little chance of breaking through the blue wall. He would need to win 270 of the 298 remaining electoral votes.
Democrats have an advantage in the electoral vote, as Democratic pockets win about 170 electoral votes, while Republicans have a lock on only about 105. But the blue wall theory, like all political principles, is only true until it isn’t. And it could easily prove ineffective in a competitive 2016 race.
To understand why, go back and put yourself in the shoes of a Democratic strategist after the 2004 presidential race. Suppose the stronger Democratic candidate in 2008 won all of John Kerry’s 252 electoral votes (which it did). Then look at the states where Kerry won 43 percent or more of the popular vote.
The four states that Kerry won by 48 percent or more — Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada — were obvious targets, seriously contested in three or four of the previous four elections. Add Florida (47 percent for Kerry and obviously a close race) and you have 318 electoral votes easily available in a good Democratic year.
What other states should you be looking at? It depends on who your candidate is. If it’s Hillary Clinton, you might want to consider Missouri, Arkansas, Arizona, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Bill Clinton won Arizona once and the other four states twice, and Hillary Clinton won all but Missouri in the 2008 primaries. Those states’ 43 electoral votes augment her potential win to 361.
If your candidate is Barack Obama, your goals are different. You might look at Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina, as well as Missouri. All but Colorado have vast minority populations, and all but Missouri have vast blocks of affluent whites—groups among which Obama showed mighty appeal in the 2008 primaries.
Those states had 48 electoral votes in 2008. Obama won all but 11 in Missouri and made up for it by winning 11 in Indiana, a Kerry state, with 39 percent support.
The lesson here is that, in a favorable opinion climate, a party can effectively target previously unwinnable states that contain voting blocs that can be flipped or simply mobilized. It helps a lot if, like Obama, they boost turnout in the primaries.
Similarly, a Republican strategist predicting 2016 predicts that there are 12 states in which Mitt Romney won between 43 percent and 49 percent of the electoral votes in 2012. Add a significant portion of the 146 electoral votes from those states to the 206 that Romney won, and you get a result that is well over 270 percent.
At the top of the list are longtime targets: Florida and Ohio. Just below, with 47 percent support for Romney, are Virginia and — part of the supposedly unbreakable blue wall — Pennsylvania. Republicans nearly defeated the popular Democratic senator in Virginia last year and have been making steady gains in working-class western Pennsylvania. Those four states, added to Romney’s tally, would give the GOP 286 electoral votes — George W. Bush’s winning total in 2004.
What other states might Republicans target? A candidate with Midwestern appeal might pick Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota (42 electoral votes). A candidate with Latino appeal might pick Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico (20 electoral votes). A candidate with affluent white appeal might pick Colorado, New Hampshire, and Minnesota (23 electoral votes). A candidate with working-class appeal might pick Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan (32 electoral votes).
Critics might ask whether the 2016 Republican nominee can count on carrying all of Romney’s states. Certainly not, if the party is as unpopular as it was in 2008. And North Carolina, a state with 48 percent support for Obama, certainly looks like a realistic target for Democrats in a close race.
But Obama has not won more than 45 percent in other Romney states. In the six where he has won 44 or 45 percent, Democrats have had little recent success, even with candidates better suited to the local terrain than Hillary Clinton. None looks like a good Democratic target.
Republicans looking to 2016 can learn from the Democrats’ success in 2008. Aim sharp and think about the states you haven’t won in years. And exploit the primaries to expand potentially favorable blocs.
