For Trump’s die-hard supporters, polls don’t really matter, especially when the media is salivating over the president historically low acceptance ratesGiven the state of the Democratic Party, the lack of quality candidates and the lack of messaging, it seemed like anything could happen in the 2018 midterm elections. NBC News I am reporting that in rural America, especially in counties that helped Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, his approval rating is 50 percent:
President Donald Trump’s job approval rating in U.S. counties that helped propel him to victory in 2016 is 50 percent, according to a modern NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of these “Trump counties.”
Fifty percent of adults in those counties — a mix of Republicans, Democrats and independents — approve of the president’s job performance (including 29 percent who strongly approve), while 46 percent disapprove (including 35 percent who strongly approve).
The survey sample was drawn from 439 counties in 16 states — Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — where support either switched from Barack Obama to Trump or where Trump significantly outstripped Mitt Romney in 2012.
It’s another case of frosty water being poured on Democrats’ 2018 hopes. They’re focusing on the 23 or 24 districts that split for Hillary Clinton but also for a Republican House member. That’s fine, but there are at least a dozen Democratic districts that Trump won last year. Democrats’ obstacles to their 2018 plans are met with skepticism from everyone, including MSNBC’s Morning Joe, who noted the lack of a Democratic farm system for recruiting candidates. Then, New York Times threw more soggy blankets over the hype surrounding the 2018 transition, when Georgia held a special election in its 6th Congressional District, where Republican Karen Handel defeated Democrat Jon Ossoff in the most costly House race in history. Democrats had the highest turnout in a decade in that district, but it wasn’t enough to win. Second, it was a Republican district, albeit one that wasn’t exactly Trump-friendly; he won it by a mere point. So Democrats thought it might be a dress rehearsal for a transition in other similar districts. It didn’t work out. So while the left can pat itself on the back for doing better than ever before in these traditionally Republican districts, it’s still a loser. Nate Cohn warned that the 2018 election cycle could end up being an electorate that mirrors the 2016 election, which benefited Republicans. The biggest gut punch for Democrats came from Third Way’s analysis of the midterm elections, which concluded: “Democrats still wouldn’t have won the House even if they had managed to get every 2016 Clinton voter who supported the Republican candidate to go to the House in 2018 and switch sides.” That’s a statement from a left-wing think tank. It’s not just about getting a soggy towel, it’s about getting a slap in the face.
If Democrats want to take back the House, they need to appeal to Trump voters, which is key to their return but also something that will never happen.
Weak support for Trump in the country #S is that although precise, they were not evenly distributed. His #S They were solid in the R states/districts
— David M. Drucker (@DavidMDrucker) July 16, 2017
Supplement: I forgot to add that while the counties where Trump really did pick up Clinton’s lead are good for Trump – he doesn’t look as good in the counties where he flipped. However, as Guy and Leah have pointed out, Trump’s problems seem to be with his character and personality, not his issues. He It works well with service economyThat could produce a very nuanced map, though unless Democrats can field solid candidates who can run on message, we shouldn’t be surprised if the GOP majority survives next year.
