by Robert Romano
Let’s not look now, but former President Donald Trump is leading in most national polls, with nearly 53 percent, according to RealClearPolling.comSince polls began for the 2024 election, 182 of the 346 polls have been conducted in 2021.
President Joe Biden won just 114 of those polls, or nearly 33 percent.
In 50 polls the result was a tie at 14.4 percent.
Because these are national polls, not state-by-state ones, they promise to measure popular support that Republicans have not achieved since 2004, when George W. Bush defeated John Kerry for re-election.
Compared to the 2020 cycleOf the 293 polls conducted, Biden was leading in 285 of them, or 97 percent.
AND in 2016Hillary Clinton was leading in 219 of 259 polls conducted, or 85 percent of them.
Both predicted that the Democratic candidates would easily win the popular vote in 2020 AND 2016which they did.
This suggests the national popular vote is at stake, with Trump in the lead.
In the latest polls conducted since the June 27 debate, Trump has begun to gain an advantage, currently polling at 47.5 percent compared to 44.2 percent in the polls.
It’s also worth noting that Trump actually outperformed his poll numbers in both 2016 and 2020, by 2.5 and 2.9 points, respectively. So if the polls are averaging 47.5 percent, it could be more like 50 percent if Trump’s indigent poll numbers hold true.
But that’s nothing recent, nor is it Trump’s biggest lead in the race so far. As inflation has outpaced incomes, the world has become more confused, and violent crime has risen in many cities, Trump has trailed Biden in the national polling average since September 2023. In delayed January, Trump led by more than 4 points.
Look at five way race with Robert Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornell West does not improve Biden’s prospects, with Trump leading by an average of 4.9 percentage points, 42.5% to 37.6% to 10.3% to 2.1% to 1.6%.
Of the 89 polls conducted so far, Trump has won almost 72 percent, or 64 of them.
Biden has only 12.3 percent, or 11.
14 of them resulted in a draw, or 15.7 percent.
When confronted with the reality of his performance, not only in the debate but throughout the race, in an ABC News interview with George Stephanopoulos, Biden told the president, “now you’re behind in the popular vote,” that “I don’t believe it.”
Yet that is exactly what the polls show, although it is surprising that a Republican is leading the race after 20 years of losing the popular vote.
The truth is that even a tie in the popular vote will likely favor the Republican Party candidate in the Electoral College.
On this measure, Trump will lead all of the likely key states in 2024: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina AND Georgia.
Now, polls alone don’t guarantee victory. Just ask Presidents Thomas Dewey and Hillary Clinton, who lost elections in 1948 and 2016 after leading in the polls. Candidates still need to connect with voters and then get them out to vote. Biden seems to think so — for now — but time is running out to change voter attitudes that are becoming increasingly ingrained at this point in the race. Stay tuned.
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Robert Romano is vice president of public policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
Photo “Donald Trump” by Donald J. Trump.
