Well, if the election were held today, Trump would have a 57.5 percent chance of winning and Hillary a 42.5 percent chance, According to to FiveThirtyEight. In this scenario, Trump and Clinton would tie in the popular vote, but Trump would win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, giving him a landslide victory of 285/252 in the Electoral College.
Of course, if we stick to the polls for the November 8 projection, Clinton will be ahead of Trump 46/44 in the popular vote, with a narrow 276/261 victory in the Electoral College. A rather modest victory for the man Democrats believe will bring about the next apocalypse. As for the odds of winning in this projection, they are almost 50/50, with Clinton having a 53.7 percent chance of winning and Trump a 46.2 percent chance.
Still, while Hillary fans might find some relief in this prediction and dismiss the “if the election were held today” scenario, since Trump received large lump after the RNC convention, they should go back to July 12, when FiveThirtyEight estimated her chances of winning at 77 percent. So in about two weeks, her chances of winning the presidential election have fallen by 20 points.
Finally, let’s get to the last prediction, which FiveThirtyEight takes into account economic and historical data, and the one that Clinton supporters are likely to promote, since Clinton has routed Trump. She beats him 282/254 in the Electoral College and wins the popular vote (again… barely) 47/45. In this scenario, Clinton has a 58.2 percent chance of winning, and Trump has a 41.7 percent chance. So a 60/40 split, which sounds much better on the radio. But on July 12, Clinton had a 73 percent chance of winning. She’s lost 14 points since then.
For all of Trump’s flaws, Clinton’s problems seem more stern and resonate more with American voters. Again, it’s early, but Trump didn’t mishandle classified information. He didn’t leave America’s national security in a potentially precarious state. He didn’t run a private email server, lie about why it was set up or what information was sent through it. He’s also not part of a party that’s also embroiled in an embarrassing email scandal that appears to have tipped the Democratic National Committee in Clinton’s favor over her opponent, Bernie Sanders, and even suggested someone ask about the latter’s religion so it could be used against him — all on the eve of the Democratic National Convention.
At the same time, let’s not get too carried away. Clinton could see an equally huge surge in the polls after the Democratic Convention. Plus, today’s forecast shows Trump winning Pennsylvania. No Republican has won the Keystone State since 1988, so let’s temper our enthusiasm a bit. Still, it’s a good sign for Trump, while Clinton’s campaign should be worried that such a tender candidate, and Trump’s tender, could hurt her chances of winning by double digits in such a compact period of time. Plus, they’re probably looking back and wondering whether they should have taken the email controversy more seriously. It wasn’t just a passing story. It stuck — and the deep dive it took came days after FBI Director James Comey destroyed the entire narrative about Clinton’s emailsWhile the FBI declined to press charges against Clinton, NBC’s Chuck Todd noted that it was an indictment of her judgment and, therefore, an indictment of her qualifications to be president. Trump’s team did not display any ads showing clips of Comey’s press conference, which was a Republican attack ad, ready to air. If Trump had done that, it would be intriguing to see what the numbers would be now if he got down to work.
