Florida has remained in GOP hands. You’d think that, given changing demographics and the fact that Obama won it twice, the Sunshine State would be a solid blue stronghold by now. As it is, if Democrats can hold on to the states they’re certain to win in the Electoral College, plus Florida, they’ll have the 270 votes they need to secure the presidency. That’s why some on the right have backed the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. And then came the 2016 election. Trump easily defeated Hillary Clinton in Florida. He also tore down the blue wall in the northern states, winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—states that haven’t voted Republican since the 1980s. For now, he’s poised to win them all again because the Democrats’ impeachment circus is unpopular with voters, they’re taking credit for the economy, and the 2020 Democratic field is just wimpy, feeble, and out of touch. They push for Medicare for All, which would destroy over 150 million private health plans, including those in union households. They hate fracking, which will rip off blue-collar workers in Western Pennsylvania. They criticize policing, one of the few jobs where people without a college degree can get decent pay and benefits. And they want illegal immigrants to get health care. It’s a far-left nightmare gift bag that no one but Californians and New Yorkers wants. But back to Florida.
I just spoke with a representative from St. Leo’s Survey, and they gave me a breakdown of the approval ratings:
Republican Party: 87%
Democrats: 57%
India: 65%
Hispanic: 67%
White: 71%
Black: 63% (!!!)
Men: 71%
Women: 66%
18-35: 66%
36-55: 65%
56+: 83%— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) December 3, 2019
This is another must-win state for Democrats and Team Trump. Everyone knows what’s at stake. But the 2018 election showed the solid work the Republican Party has done in Florida. Rep. Ron DeSantis is now governor, and his approval ratings across the board are impressive; more than half of Democrats in the state approve of the job he’s doing. Good luck trying to beat him when he runs for reelection. That same year, Gov. Rick Scott defeated incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, who may have alluded to his own death, when he campaigned in Pasco County. He told supporters that whoever goes to that seat, the rest of Florida goes. Well, Pasco County is now a Trump die-hard county.
Currently, statewide, for every registered Democrat, there are two Republicans (via WGCU SW Florida):
Despite the highly publicized efforts of the Florida Democratic Party and its allies, state data shows that Republicans far outnumber Democrats in the key swing state when it comes to voter registration.
Between January and September 2019 — the most recent month for which data is available — Republicans registered a net 23,084 novel voters in the state, while Democrats registered 10,731, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
That gives Republicans a net advantage of more than two to one.
[…]
Joshua Karp, a spokesman for Forward Florida, dismissed concerns about Democratic voter registration numbers and pointed to what he called a strategic follow-up effort heading into 2020.
“There are two numbers that really matter right now. The first is we still have 10 months until the 2020 voter registration deadline,” Karp said. “The second number is the current gap between Democrats and Republicans registered in the state.”
Democrats have more than 200,000 more registered voters than Republicans in Florida, and have long held that advantage. But in successive election cycles, the GOP has done a better job of getting voters out to vote, despite its petite numerical advantage. That has translated into a near Republican monopoly in Florida politics over the past two decades.
And see, that’s the key here. While it’s nice to quote voter registration numbers, it’s turnout. Just because someone fills out a form doesn’t mean they’ll show up at the polls on Election Day. Oh, and there’s this part of the article that can muddy up the numbers from people like Forward Florida, because they consider “anyone who filled out a voter registration form to be a ‘new’ voter, even if they were simply updating their voting address.” You also have to factor in the Trump element. Millions of Democrats changed their votes in 2016, and many of those people voted for Obama, some voted for Obama twice. In Pasco County, that’s what changed the tide. Same thing could be said about Ohio. There’s no way Trump beat Hillary by that margin among Republican voters alone. So those numbers are great for morale and fundraising mailers, but turnout will always be key. Given how Democrats have behaved over the last two years, culminating in this impeachment mess, I think the electorate will be pretty motivated to vote for Trump in 2020.
??????CNN poll shows ‘huge move toward president,’ economy booming?????? photo:twitter.com/Ovj87LtyC2
— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) December 20, 2019
