Quinnipiac is out of the game up-to-date study in pennsylvania — a state that hasn’t voted Republican in a presidential election since 1988. The GOP’s performance at this stage of the race is mixed. A few notes:
(1) John Kasich, a Keystone State native and popular governor of neighboring Ohio, has a very high approval rating in the state (to be fair, he hasn’t been the subject of any earnest criticism in the race) and would beat Hillary in a hypothetical general election showdown — but he’s coming in third in the GOP primary, with just 24 percent of the vote. the three least popular characters in the poll they are the only three people who have a real chance of being nominated by their party:
PA Q poll favorites/dislikes:
Kasich +32
Bernie +12
Cruz-18
Hillary -24
Trump-28— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 6, 2016
(2) At the bottom, as usual, is the unpopular Donald Trump, the only Republican who is trailing Hillary in this poll, albeit only slightly:
Pennsylvania Q-poll, Republican Party vs. Hillary:
Kasich +15
Cruz’s tie
Trump-3https://t.co/SKG9pMnLor— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 6, 2016
The party’s attempt at this poll is R+2which seems… a bit generous, given Pennsylvania’s voting history. Since 1996, the state’s percentage of Republican presidential votes average in the mid 40s.. I’d wager it’s a safe and sound bet that these numbers are slightly inflated; Kasich’s lead isn’t that large, Cruz is probably down a few points, and Trump is probably well outside the margin of error. All of this, once again, reminds us how vulnerable Mrs. Clinton could be.
should will be this fall:
Periodic reminder that Hillary Clinton is incredibly tender and beatable, at least on paper. Her favorite/non-favorite in PA: photo:twitter.com/PuuMwzQkJK
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) April 7, 2016
She is unfavorable at 51 percent among women, 52 percent among newborn voters, 67 percent among men and 65 percent among independents. And that’s in the blue state of Pennsylvania. She would be unelectable if not for stunning toxicity a Republican MC whose negative opinions somehow outweigh hers.
(3) The best position in this survey for Republicans is US Senate racewhich has been rated as uncertain by many forecasters. So far, conservative incumbent Pat Toomey has weathered his party’s presidential mess, leading potential Democratic candidates relatively comfortably and enjoying high job acceptance rates:
#QSurvey #PASen:
Toomey 47 Sestak 39
Toomey 47 McGinty 38https://t.co/5AWbW6FgaO photo:twitter.com/nmDkrifRco— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) April 7, 2016
#QSurvey #PASen Toomey’s job approval: 50-29 photo:twitter.com/Aitk0m56eS
— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) April 7, 2016
At this point in the race, Toomey looks like the favorite to win reelection. I’ll leave you with this analysis by Larry Sabatowhich suggests other Republicans aren’t looking so stable:
Crystal Ball: Presidential Election Lifts Several Lower-Position Election Ratings Toward Democrats https://t.co/E4HPqQTBdE photo:twitter.com/9bjTKMyFvH
— Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) April 7, 2016
Democrats need to pick up more Senate seats in November to regain control of the upper chamber — four if a Democrat becomes vice president and breaks a 50-50 tie.
