Liberals hoping to regain the chamber by Democrats will be disappointed next year, as well as Republicans in the House of Representatives look quite solid In 2016, in January, Stuart Rothenberg had this to say about opportunities Democrats can recover the lower chamber:
… 30 places is a gigantic number. Since 1950, such gigantic profits took place six times during the intravenous elections, when waves of partisans often appear, but only twice in the presidential years, in 1964 and 1980 and this is an significant reason why GOP begins as a clear favorite to maintain Control over the DOM party in 2016.
According to appeal, Democrats really have something that will allow them to at least get some of the seats. This is the presidential year, Hillary is still a definite favorite for the nomination of democrats, and this means a higher election attendance.
This means nothing, if the democrats have nobody to run in competitive districts and right now; There is about a dozen races in which there is no one who could challenge a sitting Republican. For example, Illinois and New York would be the main chances of supporting Democrats, if they could find a conscious being that could be placed on the voting card:
Places where democrats have difficulty finding the best recruits are the 24th district based in Syracuse, New York. In 2014, the freshly baked MP of the Republican Party John Katko won the wave of GOP, despite the fact that two years earlier President Barack Obama gained a 16-point advantage. In the presidential year, the district would have a forceful advantage of Democrats. But the democrats have not yet found a candidate who could face Katko.
Recruitment also turns out to be problematic in Illinois. Both representatives of GOP, Rodney Davis and Mike Bost, occupy places in constituencies with equal partisan division, which makes them the main chances of winning fines. But democrats still don’t have top -class recruits there.
Additionally, New York Times Nate Cohn noticed after the end of his term of office in 2014 that, taking into account the structure of the chamber, it is not excluded that he has a solid majority of Republicans in it for the next generation. Rob Simms, executive director of the National Republican Campaign Committee, commented that Democrats may have problems recruiting people to start against Republicans in these murky blue states because they already have power in their cities.
“Why would you give up this … and come to Washington to be in a minority for several cycles,” said Simms. He is right, and the democrats are extremely forceful at the state level.
As for the Senate, He is more uncertain For Republicans. It is possible that they will be able to keep the majority, but the democrats only need to focus on the states in which Obama won twice, although the chances of maintaining control by Republicans are growing if the Pat toomey senator persists in Pennsylvania. However, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Commission Ward Baker promises the fight. They have already started spending money to defend their majority in the higher chamber:
“I don’t know what they will do there [at the DSCC]- he says – “But one thing I can promise you: I hope that they will be ready to fight because we will bring it to them.”
This time, the initial conditions seem ideal for democrats: defending only two competitive seats (Nevada and Colorado), gigantic offensive possibilities in six states, in which Obama won twice, and attendance at the presidential level, which is usually beneficial for Democrats.
[…]
At the same time, although the map is helpful for Democrats, it is not as ample as the one on which the Republicans used in the last cycle.
According to the results of the presidential election in 2012 ) with six of the best democrats next year (Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). In the last presidential election, Mitt Romney achieved six main goals of the Republican Party in 2014 by an average of 19 points, while in 2012 Obama achieved the six most significant goals of Democrats in 2016. On average, only 6 points, referring to 17 points of victory in the presidential election . His family state Illinois is a noticeable protruding value.
For Republicans, the goal is clear: not allow the Democrats to win more than three seats next year.
