Is this Donald Trump’s Republican Party? This can be determined, as partisan Democrats do, by the victories of various candidates supported by the former president in the Republican primaries. This is not a done deal, however, and Trump’s batting average is inflated by the dozens of endorsements he has given to incumbents without significant mainstream opposition.
In doing so, Trump endorsed Gov. Greg Abbott and many other basic winners of Tuesday’s Texas primary. But incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton, endorsed by Trump last July, was forced into a runoff by George P. Bush. Paxton is leading in polls after the runoff, but one poll shows his lead is shrinking.
In Ohio, Trump disappointed several pro-Trump Senate candidates when he endorsed “Hillbilly Elegy” author and onetime Trump skeptic J.D. Vance on Good Friday, April 15. Vance ultimately won the May 5 primary with 32% to 24% of the vote for former state treasurer Josh Mandel and 23% for state senator Matt Dolan.
But was Trump’s nod crucial? Vance rose from 8% to 15% in the previous poll to 23% in the Trafalgar poll conducted between April 13 and 14, and achieved similar figures in later polls. Primary polling is not an exact science, but the numbers support the conclusion that Trump jumped on the bandwagon of a candidate who performed well in the debates, as well as the conclusion that he swayed thousands of voters toward Vance.
Support for Trump had mixed success in the May 10 primaries. In the Nebraska governor’s race, his candidate Charles Herbster lost to Jim Pillen, a state university regent supported by incumbent Governor Pete Ricketts. But Herbster’s personal problems may have been decisive. In the West Virginia race between two incumbent congressmen, Trump supporter Alex Mooney won a solid victory in a district where Trump carried 67% to 31% in 2020.
In Tuesday’s North Carolina primary, Trump’s June 2021 endorsement of Rep. Ted Budd could have been crucial not only to winning the endorsement, but also to winnowing the field. April polls showed Budd, of rural Davie County, well ahead of former Charlotte governor and mayor Pat McCrory in a party whose core electorate is increasingly outside the metropolitan area, and Budd won 59% to 25%. However, controversial Republican Madison Cawthorn, despite supporting Trump, lost to local legislator Chuck Edwards.
Pennsylvania also voted on Tuesday and, as I write this, Trump-backed TV doctor Mehmet Oz leads former hedge funder David McCormick by just 2,672 votes out of 1.3 million votes cast. They each have 31%, just slightly more than Trump supporter Kathy Barnette’s 25%.
If Oz’s lead holds in the full tally and probable recount, Trump could claim recognition. To be sure, all three candidates (who, oddly enough in a state with a high percentage of native-born residents, spent most of their careers elsewhere) sought to echo his position on the issue.
Their perhaps opportunistic Trumpism is consistent with the results of a recent New York Times GOP voter focus group moderated by Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. Eight out of 10 members raised their hands when asked whether they would support a candidate “who supports Mr. Trump’s agenda.” However, only 1 in 10 people asked about a candidate with “the same style and personality as Trump.”
Similarly, in an NBC News poll conducted May 5–10, only 34% of Republicans described themselves as “more of a supporter of Donald Trump,” while 58% said they were “more of a supporter of the Republican Party.” Previous NBC polls showed that as of April 2021, more Republicans identified with the party than with the former president, but the gap has grown from 6 percentage points then to 24 points now.
Perhaps this is a natural development. A look back at the last three GOP presidential primaries shows the party moving toward populism on trade, immigration and entitlements, with more college graduates and non-metropolitans in the party’s constituency.
In 2008, the little-known, poorly funded Mike Huckabee won 22% of the vote in the contests until John McCain’s nomination on March 4. In 2012, sweater-wearing Rick Santorum won 28% of the vote until Mitt Romney announced the nomination on April 3.
In 2016, Trump faced not just one establishment candidate, but a field full of rivals who were afraid to criticize him and wanted to undercut each other. In the primaries and caucuses through April 5, when Trump eliminated all but one of his opponents, he won 36% of the vote, a steady improvement over Huckabee’s 22% and Santorum’s 28%. So did Trump create MAGA, or did MAGA create Trump?
My conclusion: It’s the party of Trump, but not really the party of Trump. Judging by the turnout in the primaries so far, this party is also one step away from a major midterm victory. So far, more votes have been cast for Republicans than for Democrats in all major states except Oregon, with Republicans casting 65% and 67% of the votes in solidly Republican Ohio and Texas, and 53% and 55% in marginal Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Trump will take credit for the party’s victories, but Republicans may not renominate the former president in 2024, just as they refused to renominate Ulysses S. Grant in 1880 and Theodore Roosevelt in 1912.
Michael Barone is a senior political analyst at the Washington Examiner, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and longtime co-author of The Almanac of American Politics.
