The fact that Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) changed her party affiliation from Democrat to Independent last year has already made the 2024 Senate elections more engaging, even though she has not yet declared her intention to seek re-election. Last month, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) formally announced his candidacyand just as he had done before he officially committed himself to the race, he now attacked Sinema. As for ousting Sinema or, if he doesn’t run, filling the open seat, Republicans are said to nominate Kari Lake, who ran for governor last November and narrowly lost to Katie Hobbs.
But on Wednesday morning, a few weeks later, as reports of Lake’s candidacy emerged, at least three articles mentioned the Republicans’ chances.
Writing for The Hill, Al Weaver included Senate races as part of the many races the Republican Party wants to win, writing: “GOP is trying to stop unelected Senate candidatesAs for Arizona, he wrote about the 2022 losses that affected not only the governor’s race but also the Senate:
But Republicans hope to win seats in 2024 by defeating Democrats running in red or purple states such as Ohio, West Virginia, Montana, Arizona and Pennsylvania – and are looking for powerful candidates.
They also look to 2022 as a cautionary tale of sorts.
In New Hampshire and Arizona in two purple states, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) and then-Gov. Doug Ducey (R) has decided not to run. Don Bolduc i Blake Masters, political newcomers who aligned themselves with Trump advanced to the general election and were easily defeated.
[Sen. Rick] Scott declined to comment directly on the committee’s decision to run again in the primary, saying, “That’s a choice they have to make.”
Although Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) was once considered a vulnerable incumbent, he managed to fend off a challenge from Republican opponent Blake Masters, winning 51.40% of the vote to Masters’ 46.51%.
Earlier Wednesday, POLITICO published an even more detailed look at Arizona on how “Arizona Republicans fear they may screw it up again“
The article begins bluntly with the words: “Kyrsten Sinema’s departure from the Democrats should be a golden opportunity for the GOP. But two high-profile 2022 election losers in Arizona are eyeing a 2024 Senate run, raising concern among Republicans that they will lose an increasingly winnable game. race.”
Masters is also mentioned at the beginning as he considers another round. “Some Arizona Republican Party strategists are treating it as a foregone conclusion that he will step in, although a person familiar with his moves said he is truly undecided at this stage and is simply testing the waters,” the report said.
As for Lake’s decision, a “person close to her” says it will be made after her lawsuit regarding the governor’s race.
The conversation between Republicans, including those already in the Senate like Sen. John Thune (R-SD), appears to be the same one regarding former and potentially future President Donald Trump on what to focus on in future elections:
“Any ’24 candidate whose main campaign issue is a stolen election is likely to have the same problems as some of the ’22 candidates,” said Sen. John Thune, the second GOP leader in the Senate. “I just don’t think that’s where the American public is. It’s a swing state – obviously we need a good Republican candidate. You know, whoever joins, I hope they focus on the future, not the past.
MAGA heroes set in Arizona are undeterred by what happened in 2022, but they seem even more emboldened to run for office. Caroline Wren, a senior adviser to Lake, countered that Thune had “everything wrong with the Republican establishment” and that the “Washington cartel” was “signaling that he is willing to give up his Arizona Senate seat to the radical left.”
Few, if any, states in the country provide as clear a testing ground for the future of the Republican Party as Arizona. For decades, a bastion of conservatism and libertarianism, the state has drifted to the left. Democrats won three Senate races in a row, the last governor’s race and the presidential race in 2020. Moreover, Arizona’s primary elections are typically held late, making it difficult for challengers to consolidate support ahead of the general election.
“Just look at what happened in the last two elections. “It’s anyone’s guess what will happen when MAGA candidates ignore the fundamental issues Arizonans care about,” said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “Kari Lake is not the governor. Blake Masters is not a senator. Republicans need to get back to basics.”
These trends have alarmed more establishment Republicans, who are privately discussing ways to prevent them. GOP consultants even went so far as to encourage Masters to run for the House instead of the Senate because of his high unfavorability and the exorbitant amount of money needed to restore his reputation in the statewide race, according to a person familiar with the conversation. Republicans believe Lake and Masters are unlikely to face each other.
Fox News, in a report by Sophia Slacik, described how “Republicans fear Kari Lake and Blake Masters will lose Arizona Senate race again in 2024” which quoted Senator Thune’s comments in the POLITICO report.
Matt also recently touched on the candidate quality argument by examining how Republican voters swung to the Democratic side, partially conceding that he was wrong about the distribution of seats.
There is no denying that 2022 has been a disappointing year for Republicans. Although the party still captured the House, it did so narrowly, days after election night. The Senate was always a bit more challenging, but it was deemed doable. Democrats not only maintained control, but also swelled their ranks in the body when Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) replaced retiring Pat Toomey, the Republican who had held the seat before him. Such results not only did not trigger a red wave, but went against expectations, polls and historical precedents.
That being said, the 2024 Senate map really is different. This tightly favors Republicans. Even with all the potential craziness going on in the Republican Party, especially in Arizona, The Hill’s Max Greenwood included Arizona as a state where the Senate seat could flip. There is still hope, especially if Democrats are in chaos with their primaries.
