Democrats don’t want a coronation, but sometimes you can’t always get what you want. Hillary Clinton announces her 2016 candidacy this Sunday – and the nomination is all but certain for her. Nevertheless, the modern Bloomberg the survey showed that 72 percent of Democrats and Independents want competitive Democratic primaries. But it’s highly unlikely that a earnest challenger could mount a successful insurgent candidacy along the lines of Barack Obama this cycle; most of the possible candidates mentioned as potential rivals to Hillary in the 2016 primaries collapsed.
Vice President Joe Biden has been traveling to the right places, but he doesn’t have any campaign infrastructure in place at the moment. But the Draft Joe movement has been taking hold in the past few weeks. Now, former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley seems poised to offer a Democratic alternative to Clinton in 2016. Two things continue to vex (*72*) Clinton. First, the email controversy seems to be a huge issue with voters, with 53 percent saying Clinton wasn’t forthright about disclosing all the details about her private email address and server. Second, gender doesn’t seem to matter; 83 percent said it wouldn’t matter if she were to become the first female president. Only 12 percent were more likely to vote for her because of it:
As Clinton prepared to formally announce her candidacy on Sunday, nearly three-quarters of Democrats and independents in the survey said it would be good for the Democratic Party if she faced a “serious” contender for the nomination. Democrats and independents shared that view, with 72 percent of both groups saying her party would be best served by a solid primary.
This opens up the potential for other Democrats considering candidacies, including former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and possibly Vice President Joe Biden.
Facing a earnest challenge “would prepare her for debates and things like that against the Republican candidate,” said pollster Marc Witte, 66, a Democrat and clinical counselor from Poland, Ohio. But Witte, who supports Clinton, isn’t sure he wants Clinton to face an overly belligerent opponent. “That could be bad,” he said.
The poll, conducted April 6-8, also indicates that Clinton will face continued skepticism about whether she was forthright when she said she had turned over all emails relevant to her time as secretary of state. Fifty-three percent of Americans believe she intentionally withheld or deleted some relevant emails from a private account and home server she used while in office. Only 29 percent of respondents said they believed she had been forthright.
Up to 26 percent of Democrats believe she intentionally withheld emails or deleted them.
Email scandal tarnishes her positive ratings. Additionally, Bloomberg noted that of those who viewed her positively, more than a quarter said she had not been forthright about her emails.
It is becoming clear that Hillary’s team made a huge mistake in their calculations about the fact that American voters do not care about email. Some of those surveyed by Bloomberg Take the case as a testament to a person’s character — and the Clintons have a checkered history in that aspect of politics, especially when Bill was elected in 1992.
Democrats overwhelmingly will vote for Hillary in 2016, but her support has dropped by ten points. In June 2013, 52 percent of Democrats said they would definitely vote for Clinton in 2016; that number dropped to 42 percent in April. Nearly thirty percent of Democrats either definitely will not vote for her or are unsure, an escalate of almost ten points from June 2013.
When we break down the gender politics, it’s not surprising that liberals and women are more likely to vote for Hillary because she’s a woman and could be the first female president. For men and women who consider themselves independents, approval ratings drop — as usual:
Women and liberals are more likely than others to say they would be more likely to vote for Clinton because of her gender. Seventeen percent of women say the idea of electing the first female president makes them more likely to vote for Clinton, more than twice the percentage of men who say so. Among those who consider themselves liberals, a quarter said Clinton’s gender makes them more likely to support her.
As is typical with Clinton, more women view her favorably than men, 54 percent to 42 percent. Even so, her standing among women is down 9 points from two years ago.
Her ratings fell among independent women, with 44 percent viewing her favorably and 48 percent viewing her unfavorably. That’s a significant drop from June 2013, when that group viewed her favorably by a nearly 2-1 margin, 60 percent to 33 percent.
One last note:The number of independents and Democrats who say a solid Democratic primary would be a good thing could be a bit lower (or higher) than 72 percent. The sample size for that question was only 687. To get a more true number, it would need to be closer to 1,000 respondents, just like the overall Bloomberg poll. Still, the email fiasco — and the fact that she’s simply a polarizing figure who grows increasingly unpopular the longer she’s in the spotlight — has proven to be a factor in her approval ratings. At the same time, it’s a bit odd that some Democratic strategists thought that appearing dishonest wouldn’t matter to voters.
Ten-point drop among Democrats not seen as forthright, support for swing states weakens; Hillary is slowly closing out 2016 election, but that could change.
