Monday, December 23, 2024

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Yes, we totally have this election in our pocket

Extreme trust of the Obama camp because of defeating Romney it’ll be a piece of cakeapparently:

First of all, in the Obamas’ opinion, Romney is still a delicate candidate. His stump skills are spotty at best, and his speeches are plagued by awkward jargon and passionless rhetoric. They believe his tenure as head of Bain Capital and his tenure as governor of Massachusetts hide vulnerabilities that have not yet been revealed. “No one has ever looked at Romney’s files, and there are tons of them,” said one senior campaign official. “He developed a set of values ​​at Bain about what the economy was about… Everything it takes to make money… He took that same philosophy to Massachusetts [as governor]” Obama’s team is tapping into a multimedia treasure trove of research on both phases of Romney’s career and expects to launch powerful missiles at key moments in the campaign, embarrassing the Republican each time. Second, their research suggests that Romney has exactly one rhetorical path to victory: as a can-do entrepreneur, he can fix what’s broken. Chicago intends to concentrate as much of its formidable firepower as necessary to dismantle Romney on this front and prevent the election from becoming a referendum on the president’s economic tenure.

Third, according to Obama’s team, Romney held many right-wing positions in public opinion. The president’s team plans to throw two years of provocative statements in Romney’s face, using sophisticated microtargeting of affected demographics. In the unrelenting messenger, Latinos will hear about Romney’s ties to some of the country’s most controversial leaders and anti-illegal immigration laws. Seniors dependent on Medicare will be informed again and again about Romney’s support for Rep. Paul Ryan’s House budget plan. Women will be warned about the threat to their reproductive freedom. And so on. Fourth and last, presidential politics ultimately centers around the Electoral College. Analysis of the Obama campaign, tied to recent media reports, shows Romney has a paper-thin margin of error to get to the magic 270. The map is littered with states that Republicans need to take from the 2008 Democratic column to win, and in many of them, such as Ohio and Virginia, they are falling behind.

This approach comes down to three uncomplicated steps: demagogue Mitt Romney, rinse and repeat. Chicago admits it will exploit this strategy to avoid an economy-focused election. (Oh man, I wonder why). The heart of this slash and burn campaign will be an attack on Romney’s record at Bain Capital. Similar criticism from other Republicans during the primaries seemed to catch the Romney Camp by surprise, but a very senior Romney source told me that overall, they will be much better prepared to play defense and counterattack on this front. That’s an encouraging thought, but I’ll reserve my applause until we see the up-to-date strategy. The point is that Romney is just emerging from a sometimes divisive and ugly primary fight. It’s at a huge disadvantage cash-wise, and the president is going around trying to influence the state’s future development, um, “official business” for months. Even Romney’s staunchest supporters admit he’s not exactly Mr. Excitement. For all his profile campaign expensesstrict “micro-targeting” and the exploit of beloved news and pop culture media, you would think that Obama would already have a powerful advantage, especially among low-information voters. Yet: :

New POLITICO Poll/George Washington University Battlefield finds a dead spot in the presidential race six months before the election. Mitt Romney outperformed President Barack Obama 48% to 47% among likely votersa number well within the margin of error as Republicans quickly consolidate around the likely GOP nominee. In the poll conducted Sunday, April 29, through Thursday, May 3, the former Massachusetts governor had a 10-point lead, 48 to 38 percent, among independent candidates and a 6-point lead among those who describe themselves as “extremely likely.” to vote in November. In a February POLITICO poll, Obama was ahead of Romney by 9 points.

According to the poll, the GOP gained a slim 45-43% advantage in overall congressional votes, and 65% believe Republicans will still control a majority in the House after the election. Forty-one percent believe Democrats will maintain a majority in the Senate. The president’s job approval rating is 48 percent, down 5 points from February and now equal to the percentage of voters who disapprove of Obama’s actions. The results signal that as the general election campaign phase begins whoever wins the presidency is a toss-up.

Gallup’s State of the Battlefield Poll shows that: similar tightening (that’s Ed Morrissey notescomes despite diminished GOP enthusiasm) and Quinippiac’s numbers released last week found Romney tied and leading in Ohio and Florida, respectively. The Policy/GWU stats can’t be particularly encouraging for Obama – down 10 from independents? Losing the most votes by six? Trailing a hair’s breadth behind Romney in swing states? Nevertheless, Obama’s campaign continues to display this bizarre self-importance, perhaps the best example of which is this recent one Buzz Feed Report: :

“Having said that the [Obama] the campaign is not afraid of Romney, which is an understatement – he is almost seen as a joke,” reports online publication BuzzFeed, providing a look inside Obama’s headquarters in Chicago. In a sign of how fun Romney thinks the campaign is, BuzzFeed reports that Obama’s staffers have named the elevators in their buildings after cars in reference to a planned car elevator in Romney’s California neighborhood.

I would encourage the Obama campaign to maintain this attitude for the next six months. Seriously, please. Guys, don’t pay attention to your boss’s failed history and unpopular policies. And don’t worry, the Romney campaign will be just as timid and… free-legged like McCain four years ago. Yes, this fall is almost certain to be the case 2008: Continuation

. I’ll leave you with two things from the Romney camp. First of all, them the latest internet advertisingwhich focuses on – surprise! – economics (for some reason they are strangely not interested in dogs, car lifts and other accompanying events), and then challenging look how this president’s policies have impacted the well-being of the middle class – this is an issue on which he leads the election Policy questionnaire:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKHGN8i1ia8

ABC News also describes an additional Obama opponent: His own rhetoric and promises from 2008, some of which are true I’m trying to do it again this cycle. Carry on, Obamaphiles. This is something so that’s itNormal?


UPDATE – Taking all the “it’s early” caveats into account, RCP the last six polls show: Tie, tie, Obama +3, Romney +1, Romney +1 and Romney +5.

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