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Will we have a new Speaker of the House of Representatives today?

On October 2, Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed a resignation motion against then-Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (Calif.). He has been waiting for this for a long time because both men do not like each other. McCarthy passed a resolution to keep the government open for another 45 days, narrowly missing the September 30 deadline that would have triggered a government shutdown. Although Democrats were initially irritated by the lack of aid for Ukraine, McCarthy reportedly agreed to a separate vote on the package. As a result, the 45-day CR was able to sail through Congress without major drama.

Gaetz viewed this solicitation of Democratic Party support as a betrayal and decided to cut McCarthy, which was successful. Eight Republicans joined Democrats to unseat McCarthy. The House of Representatives was thrown into chaos, although the main candidates turned out to be Representatives Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Jim Jordan (R-OH). Then, on October 7, Hamas launched a massive terrorist attack on Israel that could escalate into a regional war. Americans died in the attacks. As Jerusalem prepares for war, we need someone to quickly get 218 and bring order to the House. When will it happen? We could vote today, but Thursday seems like a better option.

There was a meeting and candidate forum last night where the current speaker insisted that members should not nominate him. McCarthy decided not to run for his former leadership position when he was officially fired from the Speaker’s office. Punchbowl summarized Tuesday’s agenda for House Republicans, including what happened if drama continues (via Punchbowl News):

Here’s the schedule for the week: House Republicans will return tonight and hold a conference call. There will be a speaker candidate forum on Tuesday, which will include Jordan and Scalise. For now, the internal GOP election for speaker will be held on Wednesday. Many House Republicans want to ensure that no candidate will proceed to a roll call vote unless he or she has the support of 218 Republicans.

Democrats in the House of Representatives will return on Tuesday evening for an organizational meeting and will deliberate on Wednesday morning. Democrats, of course, will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries as speaker.

As mentioned above, the speaker’s vote could not happen until Wednesday at the earliest. However, we believe Thursday or later is more likely.

If neither Jordan nor Scalise — nor any Republican — can muster enough support to get 218 votes (217 in fact) and the House enters next week without a speaker, then a whole new set of questions arises. Would the House formally confirm Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) as speaker pro tem – a position he currently holds only nominally – for 30 or 60 days to address critical issues? Would a “caretaker speaker” be overheard? Do Republicans need to first establish the internal rules of their fights? Some lawmakers want Kevin McCarthy re-elected. However, this does not happen.

If we get a new speaker who is more conservative, so be it. The crisis has been averted, but it has already turned into a fifth-rate political disaster – the war between Israel and Hamas has increased the urgency of at least solving it. Israel’s pending invasion of Gaza will not be a quick operation; the brutality and sophistication of the attacks ensure that the IDF will remain in the belt until Hamas is destroyed in the region.

In the meantime, let’s hope that over the next 36 hours the election of new speakers will bring positive news regarding someone who may officially take the gavel.

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