On Tuesday, Donald Trump endorsed Bernie Moreno in the U.S. Senate race for Ohio, where Republicans hope to unseat Democrat Sherrod Brown. The move certainly wasn’t a surprise, given how much Trump had been talking to Moreno over the past few months and the contacts they already had. If not, Ohio is one of your best pickup options the best pickup options in 2024, a year in which the map looks particularly favorable for Republicans, especially compared to 2022. In connection with this race, National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) indicated over the summer that “ he is not re-engaging because he is confident that either candidate in this race can beat Brown. That’s not entirely the case in Montana in Daines, which is the other key Senate seat where Democrat Jon Tester is running for re-election.
doe approved Tim Sheehy for the Republican nomination, former Navy SEAL and CEO and founder of Bridger Aerospace. He may not be the only candidate, however, as MP Matt Rosendale is looking for another chance despite losing to Tester in 2018 by 3.5 points. Trump won the state in 2016 by 20.5 points AND in 2020 by 16.4 points. Daines also won re-election in 2020 by 10 points.
CNN recently ran a rather lengthy headline about the race, noting that “Trump is looking forward to a key Montana Senate race because far-right Rosendale could disrupt GOP plans“
The article begins with a detailed description of how Rosendale was seen raising funds at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month and how he met the former president, “described by sources as terse and polite.” Rosendale also praised Trump, although he was slow to endorse him again for president, I’m waiting until December 11th to do this.
The report outlines some of the complex options:
With Rosendale now taking steps to secure a Senate primary and promote himself as a MAGA warrior, leading Republicans are hoping to dispel any hopes that the conservative hardliner could use Trump as a springboard for the nomination.
GOP leaders are closing in on Republican Tim Sheehy, who they believe has the best chance of defeating Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in a key race for the next Senate majority. They also view Rosendale, who lost to Tester by 3 points in 2018, as an unreliable general election candidate who has hurt their chances of winning a Senate majority over the past few election cycles.
However, if Rosendale faces Sheehy, he would have a serious chance of winning the GOP primary because he touts himself as a hard-nosed conservative in the race – especially if he stays in Trump’s good graces.
That’s why Republican leaders want this to be abundantly clear: It was Sheehy who endorsed Trump months ago while Rosendale waited until mid-December, underscoring Trump’s enduring hold on the primary, hoping his desire for loyalty will trump all else.
“Well, Tim Sheehy endorsed President Trump in April. “It’s quite a late endorsement for Matt Rosendale,” Sen. Steve Daines, a Montana Republican who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Sheehy’s candidacy, told CNN. “This time he sees the inevitability that President Trump will be the nominee. I like Matt Rosendale. I hope he stays in the chamber and gains seniority.”
Over the summer, Trump privately told Rosendale that he would not have his support if he ran for Senate, according to sources familiar with the call.
But if Trump ultimately endorses Sheehy, the move could weaken Rosendale, who has been a controversial figure in Washington and joined seven other Republicans and all Democrats to vote to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker.
If Trump remains neutral, as some of his advisers believe, that could open the door for Rosendale, who will likely face a deluge of attack ads from groups allied with GOP leaders but who could benefit from outside organizations now harassing Sheehy ‘ego air waves.
…
“We prefer an argument-based primary,” said Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
In Montana, however, Peters would not characterize Rosendale as a weaker candidate, arguing that Sheehy has “feeble spots that will become starkly apparent as the campaign continues.”
“I don’t think it matters one way or the other (whether it’s Rosendale or Sheehy). Subject has already beaten him once. He can beat him again,” Peters said of Rosendale.
…
Daines said he believes – based on polls he has reviewed – that “Sheehy will beat” Rosendale in a potential primary.
“So I hope that Matt will remain in office in this House,” Daines said. Asked why Rosendale didn’t listen: “You’ll have to ask him.”
What’s even more complicated is that Trump is reportedly giving less support this time than he did in 2022, preferring instead to focus on his own campaign and not wanting to alienate voters. As also mentioned in the report, “Trump has privately told many of his advisers and allies that he believes he made too many endorsements during last year’s midterm elections and plans to stay away from many upcoming congressional fights in 2024, three sources familiar with the discussions said “
The article does refer to the departure of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in October, but there is more to the story than mentioned in the CNN report. On the day McCarthy lost the gavel, debate sparked over Rosendale’s chances in the Senate when TheMessenger’s Dan Mercia shared footage of Rosendale pointing out in an appeal to supporters that he was actually praying for a slim majority in 2022 r.
Rosenale said he “prayed every night for Fr small majority, because I realized that a slim majority was the only way to advance the conservative agenda and that if it was a proper majority, if we had six or seven very strong people, we would have carried the conference to the right and we did it!”
Daines responded jokingly that ““I didn’t realize Matt Rosendale and Nancy Pelosi were on the same prayer group.” However, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) had even stronger words for Rosendale.
He referred to this story https://t.co/XW5bU1fOLh
— Igor Bobić (@igorbobic) October 3, 2023
Maryland Matt Rosendale praying for Democrats to win election? Did God answer his prayers in 2018 when Jon Tester humiliated him?
This is just one of the many, many reasons why Maryland Matt won’t come within even the slightest mile of the Senate. https://t.co/3JNnSyD2Na
— Tom Cotton (@TomCottonAR) October 4, 2023
Recall how Rosendale did not return a call from Trump when the former president in January urged Republicans to vote for McCarthy as speaker. It took McCarthy 15 rounds to give the gavel, and thanks to the votes of Rosendale, seven other Republicans and all Democrats, McCarthy was ousted in October after Republican Matt Gaetz (R-FL) filed to leave office. Earlier this month, McCarthy announced he was leaving Congress.
Forecasters currently consider the Montana Senate race to be “Drop it off”, with the Ohio race also being recognized as “Drop it off“
