Once considered a purple state, Ohio has become redder, especially under the influence of former President Donald Trump, who won the state by almost 8 percentage points in 2016 and just over 8 percentage points in 2020. As the 2022 midterm elections approach, eyes are on many of the state’s races to see if Ohio truly is and will remain red.
Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is seeking re-election and looks like he will easily win the race. DeWine is doing quite well electoral history in Ohio. Although his race for attorney general was rather close in 2010, he easily won re-election in 2014, defeating his Democratic rival by more than 20 percentage points.
In 2018, he won the Republican Party’s gubernatorial primary by almost 20 points, and then won the general election by almost 4 percentage points. Although DeWine faced a primary challenger in May, he won decisively by 20 points.
DeWine will face Nan Whaley in November. According to an Emerson College survey released on Wednesdaythe governor leads with 49%, a 16-point lead over his Democratic rival’s 13%. Eleven percent are undecided.
This poll was conducted August 15-16 among 925 high-probability general election voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
However, this isn’t just one survey on DeWine’s site. He is largely anticipated to win this race. The Cook Political Report rates him as “Likely Republican,” while Sabato’s Crystal Ball considers him a “safe Republican” and Inside Elections even called him a “solid Republican.”
What’s more, DeWine is among the top half of most popular governors, according to data released last month by Morning Consult.
Who is the most popular governor in America? With 74% support, Wyoming Republican Mark Gordon and Vermont Republican Phil Scott top the list. https://t.co/ScFFj3iV86 pic.twitter.com/GHMUUtroQJ
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) July 19, 2022
The race that many are really interested in is to see who will fill the vacant seat left by Senator Rob Portman, a Republican who is retiring at the end of this term. He was first elected in 2010winning that race for the vacant seat left by retiring Senator George Voinovich. He won his first term by almost 18 percentage points, and then in 2016 he was re-elected by 21 points.
As Guy predicted, JD Vance, the GOP candidate this time, is unlikely to win by such a margin, although he still thinks he will because it is too early to say otherwise. The race between him and Democratic nominee Rep. Tim Ryan is believed to be much tighter. In a way, that’s what makes it more enjoyable to watch.
Despite the close race, Vance is still preferred win. The Cook Political Report called the race “lean Republican” and the Crystal Ball called Sabato “likely Republican.” Inside Elections even calls him a “solid Republican.”
It’s worth noting that despite all the chatter that Rep. Ryan might have a chance after all, the Cook Political Report changed its ratings earlier this week, with two of the three changes favoring Democrats.
These races included changing the open Pennsylvania Senate seat from “Toss-Up” to “Lean Democratic” and the Utah Senate seat held by Sen. Mike Lee (R) from “Solid Republican” to “Probably Republican.” They also changed their rating for Colorado incumbent Michael Bennet’s Senate seat from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.”
Taking all this into account, the Cook Political Report has decided to leave the Ohio Senate seat as a “lean Republican.”
The Emerson College poll also has good news for Vance, although this time the race looks tight as his lead is within the margin of error. Voters prefer Vance with 45 percent over Ryan with 42 percent. He even has an advantage among “very motivated” voters, 45 percent to Ryan’s 44 percent. But when it comes to “somewhat motivated” voters, this is indeed the case NO close. Vance leads by 20 points with 46 percent to Ryan’s 26 percent.
The Trump effect could really make a difference in a race like this, considering Trump endorsed Vance shortly before the primary appeared with him at the rally able. Trump’s support appears to have had a positive effect. Polls later showed Vance rose to the top of a crowded field and ultimately won the primary with 32.0%, almost 9 points ahead of his closest rival, Josh Mandel, who was second with 23.87%.
Vance also appeared with Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in Youngstown, Ohio, on Friday evening at the Turning Point USA event.Unite and win“rally.
It’s also worth mentioning the state of the race for congressional seats. Of the 16 congressional districts, 12 are held by Republicans and only four by Democrats.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur is a Democrat who has represented Ohio’s 9th Congressional District since 1983. In November, she will face JR Majewski, who, like Vance, had Trump’s endorsement. While Kaptur’s place was considered completely safe in the past, this time it’s her race all the way is taken into account “Toss-Up”, partly due to the change of district.
Ohio’s two other Democratic members, Reps. Joyce Beatty of Ohio’s 3rd Congressional District and Shontel Brown of Ohio’s 11th Congressional District they run in “Solid Democrats” races.
Thanks to redistricting (in terms of House seats) and a potentially upcoming red wave, Ohio will likely stay red. Nevertheless, the mentioned races will certainly be worth watching.
