After months of warning you about the GOP’s chronic overconfidence problem, I’m now feeling overconfident! Since I’ll be giving a speech at my alma mater, Cornell University, the day after the election, I’m going to do something very stupid: make an election prediction.
My reasoning is that we are three weeks away from the election and there are two essential elections this week, Harvard Harris AND Times Siennasuddenly show Republicans gaining ground. That triggered an original memory of the 1980 election, the first presidential race I paid attention to.
That’s when I discovered the iron rule of election polls: They will never, ever be wrong in Republican favor. Another is that polls usually show a Democratic victory until the election is close — and the media finally starts telling the truth.
For example, after spending much of 1980 being told that Ronald Reagan was headed for another Goldwater-style defeat, here is what a teenager might have read in The New York Times a few weeks before his landslide victory over President Jimmy Carter, winning 489 electoral votes to Carter’s 49.
— September 15, 1980: “Reagan, Carter even in Washington Post poll”
— September 21, 1980 “Taking into account the margin of error, the polls show a virtual tie between Mr. Carter and Mr. Reagan”
— October 23, 1980: “Poll Shows President Tied with Reagan”
In mid-September, Anthony Lewis of the Times painted a telling picture of Reagan’s coming doom, citing a series of state polls:
— “A recent New York Times poll of registered likely voters [in New York] showed Carter leading Reagan by a vote of 44 to 38.”
ACTUAL SCORE: REAGAN: 47; CARTER: 44
— In Washington state, “a Carter campaign poll showed the president leading Reagan by 3 points.”
ACTUAL SCORE: REAGAN: 50; CARTER: 37
— In Illinois, “a poll for the Carter campaign had him ahead by 5 points.”
ACTUAL SCORE: REAGAN: 50; CARTER 48.
— In Connecticut, “a Hartford Courant poll said: Reagan 36, Carter 35.”
ACTUAL SCORE: REAGAN: 48; CARTER: 39
A month later, The Times published another bleak poll:
— October 9, 1980 headline: “Texas faces bitter battle between president and Reagan”
ACTUAL RESULT: REAGAN: 55%; CARTER: 41%
— October 16, 1980, headline: “Close Ohio race expected as Labor mobilizes for president”
ACTUAL SCORE: REAGAN: 52, CARTER 41
And then Reagan won more electoral votes than any non-incumbent in history. You’d think the polls would sense the fact that history was about to be made. Nope!
This isn’t just a pleasant stroll down memory lane, although it is that. It’s meant to remind Republican voters, even in ostensibly blue strongholds like New York, Oregon and Washington, to vote. Because, regardless of the outcome, the polls will never overstate the Republicans’ chances.
1976
— September 23, Roper poll: Carter is leading Gerald Ford 46%-29%.
ACTUAL RESULT: Jimmy Carter won by 2 percentage points.
1984
— October 15, New York Daily News poll: Reagan 45%; Walter Mondale 41%.
ACTUAL RESULT: Reagan defeated Mondale by nearly 20 points, 58.8% to 40%.
1988
— October 5, New York Times/CBS News poll: George H. W. Bush 45%; Michael Dukakis 43%.
ACTUAL RESULT: Bush 53.4%; Dukakis 45.6%.
1992
October 18, Newsweek poll: Bill Clinton 46%; Bush GHW 31%
ACTUAL RESULT: Clinton: 43%; GHW Bush: 37.7%
1996
— October 22, The New York Times/CBS News poll: Clinton 55%; Bob Dole 33%.
ACTUAL RESULT: Clinton 49%; Dole 40%.
2000
— October 3, The New York Times/CBS News poll: Al Gore 45%; George W. Bush 39%.
ACTUAL RESULT: Bush 47.9%; Gore 48.4%.
For some mysterious reason, election polls in 2004, 2008, and 2010 were fairly correct. 2012 elections. Maybe the pollsters have gotten better. Maybe they’ve noticed that people sometimes Down look back at their predictions. Or it could be that Republicans were losing so badly in those years that it would be nearly impossible for anyone to underestimate their performance.
But, boy, did the polls make up for any inadvertent honesty when Donald Trump ran in 2016!
The Times had the best pollsters in the business and sophisticated computer modeling. Based on their advanced numerical calculations, the newspaper reported on October 18, “Hillary has 91% chance win.” On Election Day, forecasters were a little less enthusiastic, announcing that Hillary had just 85% chance victory. A Trump victory, the Times says, is about as likely as an “NFL kicker missing”[ing] “37-yard field goal.”
We know how it ended.
On Election Day 2020, Times forecasters rejoiced that Joe Biden was ahead “by more than 8 points nationally — the largest lead a candidate has had in final polls since Bill Clinton in 1996.”
He won by 4 points.
That may not be a wild and reckless prediction, but this week’s news suggests that the media is slowly beginning to uncover the truth, and Republicans may be well on their way to far outperforming the polls.
It would be a good year for him. The Senate map, combined with the retirement of five GOPers, makes 2022 a tough year for Republicans, who are defending seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina, and trying to win a majority in at least one state – Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
But a Republican victory requires voters not to be discouraged by the polls and remember to voteeven if the media says the situation is hopeless, as in New York, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
More than anything, I want to wake up the morning after the election and find out that Dr. Mehmet Oz won Pennsylvania and beat the scruffy, goateed Michael Moore candidate John Fetterman, who is passionate about only two things: not bathing and releasing vicious murderers. And that Lee Zeldin beat the crazy New York Governor Kathy Hochul, who “releases all the criminals!”, with her crazy “Whatever Happened to Baby Jane?” makeup.
Then the world will make sense again.
