Cards on the table: I really don’t have a clear idea of what happens next. There is a credible story about how to do this everyone of the top three favorites could win this evening – the question is which one is most likely? We have Dr. Oz, a renowned TV doctor with questionable conservative credentials and alleged financial ties to the repressive Turkish government. He has an ID card and the support of former President Donald Trump, a valuable commodity in a tight primary battle. Just ask JD Vance in Ohio. We have Kathy Barnette, an insurgent candidate who rises to the top at exactly the right time and rises to the top after her two colleagues have spent months and millions mercilessly attacking each other. Finally, we have businessman David McCormick, who is running as Trump’s “America First” but feels more like the establishment.
One 11th hour poll shows McCormick was barely leading. Another shows it deep inside itbut always slightly behind. Yet another, if right, suggests it is cooked:
Breakout: Today’s SP&R New Pa GOP poll (conducted 12/05-05/15, 400n likely voters) shows a two-way tie for US Senate with Oz (28%) Barnette (27%). BUT! Among voters who have made up their mind in recent days, Barnette is leading (45%). She’s got MOJO! Billionaire spender D. McCormick is DOA pic.twitter.com/wSY2cyaWse
— SP&R (@SusquehannaPR) May 16, 2022
Three surveys, three different stories. Who knows? The only constant factor is Barnette’s clear momentum, especially among overdue decision-makers. Interestingly, she has joined her wagon with a GOP governor whom Trump supports (a overdue endorsement from a forceful front-runner), but Trump and his top allies are pressing difficult on it in the Senate race. What do base voters do? Conforming to Trump’s support would mean voting for Doug Mastriano and Dr. Oz. But Mastriano and Barnette backed each other both participated the On January 6, a rally was held under the slogan “Stop the Steal.” last year (none of them are believed to have stormed the Capitol). MAGA voters may see this as a feature, not a bug. Republicans who are ambivalent and skeptical about Trump may be horrified by the idea of nominating a conspiracy supporter in such a key state, allowing Democrats to portray the party’s gubernatorial and Senate picks as lunatics. Other GOP primary voters may be wondering what else might emerge in the Barnette case in the coming days, given the flurry of recent opposition research that has bubbled to the surface. Do Republicans want to watch their candidate in a key Senate race get vetted? After getting nominated? I find her biography is fascinating in many respects, although she avoided some direct questions about itwhich is a red flag. Watch this interviewand note the dodge in a straightforward factual question about her stated biography around the mark (1:20):
What else is floating there? And there will be these half-baked explanations from some from wild to ugly past tweets enough for Pennsylvania’s total swing voters? Maybe we’ll find out. Could some primary voters be leaning toward McCormick as a “safe” choice at the last minute? Perhaps, but just because the “establishment” believes it has an electability advantage doesn’t necessarily mean things will turn out that way. I guess it’s him probably has the best chance against the Democrats in the fall – more about their candidacy in a moment – but am I convinced of it? Not really. what me Down What is known, however, is that Democrats appear ready to anoint the left as their standard-bearer in the Senate race, which unearths party elders’ preferred choice of “electable” faux moderate Conor Lamb. Meet Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who – just like him is recovering from a stroke – will probably win as the Democratic Senate candidate in a few hours. By Kimberly Strassel’s column from last month:
Fetterman says he has a significant fundraising advantage over Lamb and a significant lead in the polls. This week’s latest poll from Franklin & Marshall College gave him a 24-point lead over Lamb, 41% to 17%, with other candidates in single digits and 26% undecided… Fetterman holds statewide office and is using the space to cultivate a fascinating career mark. The liberal is 6’4, has a goatee and tattoos, loves gym shorts, Carhartt culture, and Keystone workers. He tends to troll Republicans as “simpletons” and question West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s commitment to the filibuster. Although Mr. Fetterman grew up in affluent central Pennsylvania, he portrays himself as the patron saint of the working Joe from the Rust Belt.
This masks Fetterman’s agenda, which places him squarely in the camp of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (who is lauded as a “luminary”) and the senator. Bernie Sanders (whom he supported for president in 2016). She supports Medicare for All, a $15 minimum wage, allowing transgender athletes to compete in women’s sports, gun control, “climate justice” and a “de facto moratorium” on fracking. Perhaps the bigger political issue in today’s environment is that he has spoken at rallies demanding police restitution and has made it a priority to release criminals from prison. There is also the 2013 incident in which, as mayor, Braddock pointed a gun at an unarmed black jogger.
If Democrats manage to keep this seat, in such an environment they will replace a forceful center-right conservative (the retiring Pat Toomey) with a brash, crusading Democrat Bernie Sanders. And with the Senate currently split 50/50, this race could easily be the deciding factor in taking over the chamber. The stakes are high. Since I have been skeptical or critical of Ms. Barnette in this post, I will leave you with this one-liner on Sunday, she uncorked Fetterman, referring to the last sentence of the above fragment:
Kathy Barnette on Fox News Sunday: “People ask me all the time, are you afraid to run against Fetterman? I say, “As long as I don’t run when they’re black” #PASS
— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) May 15, 2022
Pretty wild stuff. But could she become Fetterman’s de facto best friend? Barnette says he won’t support GOP candidate in the race if the candidate is an unnamed “globalist”… Kathy Barnette. A weighty defeat could likely hurt the Republican Party, as it did in Georgia early last year, another state where the margins may be slim. But hey, she was at the January 6 rally for a reason: her he can’t cope very well in terms of adverse political effects. For what it’s worth, the Democratic operatives I talked to are pursuing the Mastriano/Barnette seat because they believe they would have the best chance of winning the top two races in such a scenario. But they are also wary of supporting too much because they admit that in a very hard political atmosphere there is no certainty that they will win any race. And it’s not like Fetterman won’t be providing plenty of counter-ammunition the other way. Polls closed at 8 p.m. EST in the Keystone State. And we leave…
