A week ago, President Biden delivered a furious, partisan “State of the Union” at a rapid pace that had most of them shouting. He slurred his words, made major advertising mistakes and blurred the line between a presidential speech and an inflammatory campaign speech. However, Democrats and the media told us that the speech was a “fiery” and impassioned “victory” for Biden because he showed energy (his hyper-screaming was intended to refute the narrative of cognitive decline) and enraged Republicans and the Supreme Court (hated by leftists, including most journalists ). They assured that the evening was a great success. They emphasized it so loudly and so often as if they were trying to convince yourself their own words. Biden, as the story went, owned the stage and the opposition. Triumph. Or, to borrow a phrase, a masterclass.
Then the actual numbers started rolling in like poop in Biden’s punch bowl. A CNN poll of SOTU viewers (a self-selected group that traditionally strongly favors a man giving the speech) rated it the least favorable of Biden’s four speeches. And the rebound in the polls that might have been expected from such supposed success did not materialize. Biden’s approval rating in Real clear policy the average stands still. On March 3, a few days before the massive spectacle, he was 16 points behind. A week after the event, Biden…16 points underwater. On March 7, the day of the State of the Union, Biden overtook Donald Trump in direct RCP polls by 1.8 percentage points. A week later, Biden moved the needle by a fraction of a percentage point – in the wrong direction. Trump’s advantage is currently 2.1 points. In key battleground states, the story looks strikingly similar to what has been unfolding for weeks at this point. New data from Fox News:
NEW Fox News Poll from Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Biden’s 47FROM ARIZONA:
Trump 49
Biden’s 45— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) March 13, 2024
This isn’t the only fresh poll showing Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania:
📊 PENNSYLVANIA SURVEY: Emerson
President
🟥Trump 47% (+4)
🟦Biden 43%🟥Trump 44% (+4)
🟦Biden 40%
🟨 RFK Junior 5%
🟨 West 1%
🟩 Stein 1%With the skinnier ones
🟥Trump 52% ​​(+4)
🟦Biden 48%
—
Senate
🟦 Casey 45% (+4)
🟥Mccormicka 41%With the skinnier ones
🟦 Casey 52% (+4)
🟥 McCormick 48%… pic.twitter.com/6SkcBRUQZY— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 14, 2024
Emerson also has Biden nine points behind in Ohio, essentially in line with results from 2016 and 2020. Another pollster names Trump a five-point advantage in Nevada. Despite Biden suggesting that he is actually leading in most recent polls, and absurdly accusing the media of not reporting him as good news, the numbers we share here are not cherry-picked outliers:
NEW: @FiveThirtyEight poll average
• Georgia: Trump +7.8
• North Carolina: Trump +6.5
• Arizona: Trump +5.4
• Nevada: Trump +5.3
• Michigan: Trump +3.9
• Wisconsin: Trump +3.2
• Pennsylvania: Trump +0.6https://t.co/sOrrv5X06Q pic.twitter.com/3YZJ6TQr2J— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 13, 2024
Returning to nationwide coverage, I’ll leave you to it, which tells the story of why Trump – despite being unpopular and polarizing – is now facing the sitting president. People think Trump did better as president:
Suffolk/USA Today: Do you approve or disapprove of the job (X) is doing/has done as president?
Biden: 41-55 (-14)
Trump: 49-47 (+2)Independent
Biden 32-63 (-31)
Trump 51-44 (+7)538: #7 (2.9/3.0) | 1000 motorhomes | 3-8/11 https://t.co/XI740FBjpa pic.twitter.com/dJqGddpfTA
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 13, 2024
