On Tuesday, millions of Americans will cast ballots in off-year elections in several states across the country for legislators, governors and on ballot issues that amend state constitutions. While many eyes remain focused on the 2024 presidential race, Tuesday’s state elections give both major parties a chance to test out their middle party and messaging strategies before 2024 becomes the only event in electoral politics. Here, in no particular order, are the races Townhall is watching.
Virginia Legislature
Although the Old Dominion has been a “blue state” when it comes to presidential elections for years – George W. Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry Virginia in his re-election in 2004 – and has reliably sent Democrats to the U.S. Over the same period, elections state Senate votes were more inclined towards the Grand Ol’ Party. As analysts from the Decision Desk, Townhall’s official election results partner note“Republicans have controlled at least one state legislature in all but two of the last twenty years and have held at least one of the three statewide at-large offices for twelve of the last twenty years.” More recently, following Biden’s victory in 2020, Republicans under Gov. Glenn Youngkin surged in 2021, winning three statewide offices in the vote and taking control of the Virginia House of Delegates.
Virginia Republicans’ goal is to take control of the state Senate – currently an 18-22 GOP-to-Democratic vote – and retain the House, thereby gaining triad GOP control in Richmond. The GOP needs to add at least two seats to its column to take control thanks to Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears’ tiebreaker vote.
Here’s where DDHQ is watching:
Richmond, much of the core Tidewater area and the innermost D.C. suburbs have been Democratic for some time. Rural West Virginia used to lean Democratic, but the area has become significantly redder over the past few decades. This reddening pales in comparison to the Democrats’ rapid progress in Fairfax County and Henrico, then Prince William and Loudoun, and now Stafford, Fauquier, Chesterfield, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Suffolk. As college-educated whites moved toward the Democratic Party, these blue state areas shifted.
Youngkin regained much of that territory in his successful 2021 election, but not enough to flip back Henrico, Loudoun and Prince William counties. The path to a slim majority for Youngkin’s party runs through them and their competitive districts.
Governor of Kentucky
Incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear is looking to win re-election on Tuesday against Republican challenger and current Attorney General Daniel Cameron, but the number of registered Republican voters has surged to take the lead over Democratic voters in an otherwise red state.
Beshear narrowly won the governorship in 2019 by defeating GOP Gov. Matt Bevin, who was one of the most unpopular governors in the US. In the same election, Cameron secured his spot as AG of the Bluegrass State by winning over 100,000 more votes than Bevin and Beshear — a good sign for the Republican challenger.
Yes, but… as DDHQ explainBeshear could actually benefit from being in a red state that voted for Trump by more than 25 points in 2020:
Beshear takes advantage of what might be called the “Charlie Baker effect.” Because Republicans hold 80% or more of the seats in both houses of the Kentucky General Assembly, Beshear has very little leeway to promote liberal policies that would be unpopular in the state. The governor can do nothing except veto the most conservative Republican legislation – most of which becomes law anyway because Republicans have more than enough votes to override it. This lively allows Beshear to position himself as a test of one-party dominance in state politics and a defender of the status quo. (Empirical studies of thermostatic public opinion have shown that voters generally dislike huge policy changes).
The Decision Desk team also notes that Beshear had an “approximately 2:1 spending advantage” over Cameron, amounting to approximately $42 million to $23 million in ad spending, respectively. And while betting markets are “probably overconfident” about Beshear’s odds, DDHQ says “Beshear is the favorite, but Cameron shouldn’t be written off: Ultimately, a Republican victory in Kentucky wouldn’t be particularly surprising.”
Ohio Ballot Measures
As Townhall described at length, Buckeye State voters will vote Tuesday on a question to amend the Ohio Constitution to include language that would eliminate protections for women and girls, eliminate parental rights requirements, and make most, if not all, restrictions on abortion illegal and open the door to all types of legal challenges to laws designed to protect victims of molestation and human trafficking, as well as unborn children who may feel pain.
As Carrie Severino and Frank Scaturro summarized Planned Parenthood-endorsed ballot questions:
A proposed amendment to Ohio’s constitution would make the state a haven for abortions without restrictions and other procedures. A likely jurisdiction would be to shelter a future Kermit Gosnell, whether he practices abortion, sex reassignment surgery, or other reproductive health care procedures. Complete strangers who lend a hand children obtain life-changing procedures would be found on the right side of the law, while parents who try to protect their children would be deemed to have violated the law.
Additionally, Ohio voters will decide whether the state should legalize recreational marijuana utilize. A similar attempt about a decade ago failed, but polls in Ohio show about 60 percent support for legalization this time. However, on an off-year Election Day, who shows up to vote will likely skew the final result.
Governor of Mississippi
Incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is seeking reelection Tuesday night, but Democrat Brandon Presley — yes, a relative of the king of rock and roll — mounted a vigorous challenge thanks to significant financial support from the DNC.
Reeve won in 2019 with about 52 percent of the vote, a smaller-than-desirable margin in the otherwise deep-red Magnolia State, which gave Democrats what they believed was a chance to take over executive power in a state where Republicans have held power for years. last two decades.
A potential complication — or at least additional drama — looms over a change in Mississippi’s election law: For the first time, the governor’s race is now subject to a runoff if neither candidate receives a straightforward majority of the vote. Latest surveys from Mississippi shows Reeves with a slight advantage over Presley, but according to some, both candidates receive less than 50 percent of the votes – hence the chance for a second round.
The result of an election night involving one or both candidates close to 50 percent is likely to drag on and lead to a delay in the call as every last vote is counted to determine whether a runoff is necessary. If on election day it turns out that none of the candidates obtained a majority, the second round will be held on November 28.
Supreme Court of Pennsylvania
Voters in the Keystone State will elect a recent state Supreme Court justice on Tuesday to fill the vacancy left by former Chief Justice Max Baer’s death in 2022. The GOP nominee is Carolyn Carluccio, currently a judge of the Montgomery County Court of Common Pleas, up against Democrat Daniel McCaffery’ emu, a state Supreme Court justice.
While the liberal wing of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court enjoyed a 4-2 majority, Tuesday’s Republican victory would mean a 4-3 split, making it easier for conservatives to take control of the court in 2025 as Republicans seek to undo the damage done in the 2015 election. , as a result of which the GOP lost three seats.
As always, Townhall will publish live results on Tuesday evening, after polls close in states with off-year elections, and analyze what happened, why it happened and what it will mean in the days ahead as all eyes will turn towards 2024.
Rhode Island Convention Special
Voters in Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District will elect a recent U.S. representative on Tuesday, choosing between Republican Gerry Leonard and Democrat Gabe Amo, who will serve the final months of the term begun by former Republican David Cicilline, who resigned in May. .
Leonard is a retired United States Marine Corps colonel who, after graduating from the Naval War College, served combat missions in Iraq, Kuwait, Somalia and Afghanistan. Amo is a graduate of the Obama-Biden administration, where he most recently served as a special assistant to President Biden as director of the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs.
