I will look at a wider photo of the domestic and single survey later, but let’s start by discussing the stunning survey issued at the weekend. The last survey of the registrate des Moines/Ann Selzer, which is considered a golden standard in the state, published results showing that Kamala Harris VaultSing to lead over Donald Trump, Hawkeye. The same election series showed that Trump blows twice with numbers in June, shortly before the Biden debate failure, and then forced to withdraw from the race. A few months later, the survey raised the eyebrows, presenting Iowa as closer than expected, but with Trump before us. And now, according to Selzer, Harris has three points up, just a few days before the election. The survey is a definition of protruding and vast value. The question is whether it is canaries in a coal mine, transferring sedate problems for Trump on Tuesday, or in retrospect it will be very thunderous.
Let’s start with the reasons why Trump’s supporters can feel really concerned about this result of the survey, and then we will go to the causes of skepticism. Although it is true that Selzer’s polls sometimes missed a bit underestimating republicans In many cases, for some reason, she built a robust reputation. In 2016, she shocked many political observers, publishing the final survey, giving Trump a seven -point advantage in Iowa, which at that time looked like a significant protruding value. Trump won a state of over nine points; Selzer, unlike others, was in the pitch. Looking back, his extraordinary strength in Iowa this year – along with his convenient victory in Ohio – eventually represented data points that allowed “Blue Wall” to sweep in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four years later, in 2020, Poll Selzer was more or less at the point of nailing the margin of Iowa Trump (I barely underestimate it), which was slightly reduced compared to 2016. The low loss of Trump height into Iowa translated into a similar effect in three key states, all of which biden won narrowly.
All this is aimed at: if the highest survey line (Harris +3) turns out to be even a bit true, up to the low digital victory of Trump in Iowa, it will probably mean very murky things for his prospect of winning the presidency. AND competitive Iowa, not to mention Harris-won Iowa, could mean curtains for Trump. If women, seniors and others are really full of Harris in the types of Selzer numbers published in the red state-remember that Iowa was one of the places where the red wave was actually he did It happened in 2022 – it would be tough to see Trump as something other than cooked. But is the probe credible? Given her achievements, I just refuse to reject him from my hand, even if I think it is suspicious that the results were supposedly he leaked from above to democratic sources. I am also returning to the 2020 incident in which The DMR survey has been “scrapped” At the last moment because of “misfortune”. It was strange. Considering this, the basic assumptions of the survey would mean that the iowa electorate is going to check dramatically Other from what it looked like in the last cycles. Compare the results of the survey (on the left) with 2020 output surveys in Iowa (on the right):
Read through Selzer Crosstabs and … it’s just crazy. Here are the sets of Selzer/2020
Generally: D+3/R+8
Senior Women: D+35/D+6
Older men: R+2/R+32
India: D+7/D+4
Women: D+20/D+3
Men: R+14/R+19
WSI: R+20/R+28
Suburbs: d+23/r+3
No College: R+12/R+17
University: d+30/d+7– Ryan James Girdusky (@Ryangirdky) November 3, 2024
If the Selzer survey is true, the iowa electorate has moved 11 points towards the Democrats since 2020 (the conservative Governor of Iowa was re -elected almost 20 points two years ago). Senior of Iowa citizens transferred 30 points to democrats. Women moved 17 points in the same direction. Country men and voters became strikingly less republican. Suburb of the penultimate 26 points from Trump’s performance in 2020. Both educated and educated in college, as well as educated and migrated especially to the left. The most significant problem, for respondents, above all, is “democracy”. Already independent Just moved a bit? I am really surprised. Then Upload this information to the mix:
Iowa early voting for the weekend before the election day, of which almost six -point victory of Obama in 2012. Perform this information what you want. pic.twitter.com/gvrlydyyyym
– Luke Thompson (@Ltthomps) November 3, 2024
Republicans from Iów have achieved better results in early voting than ever in the last seven main elections, while the early participation of Democrats voting is at the lowest level. Does this indicate a huge electorate swing left? In 2020, the Democrats had a 14-point advantage in early voting, and then Trump won the state of eight points. Republicans erased the EV deficit this year. And again, if the independent ones are not really drastically in the Selzer survey, would it mean huge swaths … Republicans vote massively against Trump? I suppose everything is possible, but does it seem remotely, based on all other available data? Nate Silver Sounds skepticalAlthough Selzer still worshiped, stating that someone must be very wrong. Again, if you are right, plot Other surveys will look catastrophic. And this time, mass election errors will fight Trump. Or maybe he is wrong. The electorate, which it detected in Hawkeye, is the biden electorate in 2020 in a biden state lost by eight points in 2020:
On the other hand, Ann Selzer is clearly on the island’s side “I don’t weigh in the voice of withdrawal” because it is an iowa electorate that voted for Biden.
So another difficult Hitter joined the fight with this debate and we only need to wait 3 days to see which side is correct. pic.twitter.com/ibmfhbcp1j
– Political election forecasts (@Tencor_7144) November 2, 2024
Some people refer to abortion as a huge applicant who can explain things, but a republican state governor who signed sedate abortion restrictions was For the most extent, re -selected After . Dobbs decision in which Roe He was overturned. And then there is:
D+16 in Iowa-01 not on the pitch where the campaigns have a competitive race.
Further evidence that the survey is protruding. https://t.co/sdrxv0tpfe
– Josh Kraushaar (@joshkraushaar) November 3, 2024
Therefore, I talked to a few highly connected Republican sources of Iowa about surveys that seemed surprised and not believing about their findings. One just said “no way”, as another noted that other internal surveys at the legislative level are not even similar to reflecting what Selzer found. It is also worth noting that another main interviewer, though not with Selzer’s reputation in Iowa, he produced a survey the state of the same day she fell like a bomb. Its results were different 13 points:
Iowa survey with @Rcdefense
2024 Presidential voice
Trump 53%
Harris 43%
1% of someone else
3% undecidedhttps://t.co/t4yigroiet pic.twitter.com/ecucbwktlg– Polanie Emerson College (@emersonpolling) November 2, 2024
If Trump wins nine or ten points, he has a very good shot in winning the whole ball. If it loses and even modestly leads, it can be Kamala route. One more thought on this subject: Iowa and Ohio have been following similarly in recent years, migrating from the battlefield to the Reds. Nothing is robust, but that’s what they have recently become. Ohio and Iowa voted for Trump in similar rates in 2016 and 2020. Each of them broke the national trend and he did Experience the red waves in 2022. This year, many surveys in Ohio because of the significant and competitive Senate race. Have we seen any signs of a vast blue traffic from Buckeyland? The numbers have repeatedly shown Trump forward with a robust margin, and the real question is either a democratic senator can defeat him and stick to re -election against his republican contender in a very strict race. Or that possible That Ohio will surprise us all and will be much closer than in one of the last few elections? Is it possible that Ohio will remain quite red, while Iowa deviates in a completely different direction? I suppose everything is possible again.
I saw some suggesting that all this is part of a PSYOP, designed to reduce GOP attendance before the election day. Even if Selzer is a liberal, why should she overthrow his carefully gained reputation to publish something that was embarrassedly burdened with just a few days later? Fortunately, we will soon achieve real results, so you can sleep all speculation. Vote.
