Important for several reasons: (1)(*47*) This is Romney’s first hit gigantic 5-0 in this survey. (2)(*47*) He does this with a D+4 sample that is increasingly looking too generous to Democrats. (3)(*47*) When it was released last night, Rasmussen, Gallup and WaPo/ABC All they achieved exactly the same electoral split, 50/47. (4)(*47*) Economy and independents:
Romney now boasts a statistically – and substantively – significant economic advantage that has long been a central issue in the race. When it comes to dealing with the nation’s struggling economy, 52 percent of likely voters say they trust Romney more, while 43 percent say they have more confidence in the president(*47*)… Romney’s economic improvement – ​​and his empathy for the plight of those struggling financially – was fueled by the profits of independent politicians.
Independents now side with Romney, posting highest campaign numbers in both economies (61 to 34 percent) (*47*)and on understanding people’s problems (52 to 42 percent). These advantages in the case of independent entities constitute the basis for a significant, In the horse race, Romney has a 19 percentage point lead over Obama(*47*). If that advantage holds, it would be the sharpest shift in the vote among independents in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984. (According to the exit poll, Reagan won 63 to 36 percent of independent and other unaffiliated voters.) Obama won them by eight in 2008.
Nineteen points? If Romney wins India by close to that margin, his total lead will be more than three points. If. I couldn’t bring myself to highlight the Reagan comparisons – to his 1984 re-election outburst, no less – because it’s fun to fantasize about a massive assassination attempt on Romney, but it doesn’t happen. I think it’s safe and sound to say that Romney is in a better position to win this election than at any other point in the cycle, but it’s still going to be a battle. Even if the up-to-date norm is Romney’s slim lead nationally, there’s still that pesky detail of amassing 270 electoral votes to get him to pay up dirt. Indiana and North Carolina are almost certainly going red. Florida was looking up. Virginia? Well, two up-to-date polls in Virginia give Romney the lead in the commonwealth. Rasmussen doesn’t care 50/48 (with Romney having a fourfold advantage among decisive voters), while Fox News emphasizes the advantage of the GOP mandate at 47/45 –A nine point swing from debates. Colorado is looking relatively promising right now, as is New Hampshire. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania fall into the “outside shot” category, with Wiscy having the best chance of turning back. Who leaves Ohio. The race in the Buckeye State, where the Republican candidate held three rallies yesterday, is extremely close. His evening party at Defiance attracted a particularly enormous and loud crowd. It’s a cliche beaten into the ground, but this contest will come down to turnout politics X’s and O’s. In 2008, Obama’s enthusiasm and his well-funded grassroots juggernaut overwhelmed and swamped McCain’s threadbare campaign. Obama won the early vote in a landslide and then won enough votes on Election Day to secure a 4.5 percentage point victory. In 2012, Republicans are pushing tough. From a up-to-date campaign memo on the state of the race in Ohio:
-Republicans outperform voter registration on absentee and early voting applications by 8.61 points.
– Republicans have closed the gap on Democrats’ historic absence and early voting advantage for 16 of the last 17 days.
– Compared to 2008, Obama’s results are weaker, and Romney’s results are better in early voting and postal voting.
– Obama is underperforming in several key Democratic counties, and Romney is underperforming in Hamilton County (Cincinnati).
– Republicans are outperforming the current voter turnout in Ohio’s largest counties.
– In addition to these sedate issues related to Obama’s early voting strategy, so too is the Republican National Committee chart today which noted that Democrats cannibalize their early Election Day voters while Republicans select low- and middle-propensity voters:
This last element can be really significant. If Democrats simply eliminate the faithful early, it won’t assist much as they “cannibalize” their turnout on November 6. Remember, McCain he actually won Ohio on Election Day itself in 2008 (early votes carried him), so if Republicans manage to close the gap early, Obama won’t have enough Democratic supporters to make up the difference on November 6. All that said, is it enough? Stay tuned, sports fans. Eleven days. I’ll leave you with an image of the scene at Defiance where Romney made his estimate 12,000 followers: :
UPDATE (*47*)- New Florida poll: Romney 51, Obama 46
UPDATE II(*47*) – Romney’s team running ads in…Minnesota?