As Wikileaks and Trump’s sexual harassment allegations dominated the headlines, although the latter gained in strength, there were also Some discussion of Election Day spoilers — specifically, independent candidate Evan McMullin’s forceful showing in Utah. In a recent poll, Utah had Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tied at 26 percent; McMullin came in a forceful third with 22 percent. FiveThirtyEight I considered the scenario where McMullin could win the White House by winning Utah’s electoral votes, force a House vote because no one could get 270 Electoral College votes, and count on Republican defections to secure the presidency. That’s a highly unlikely outcome. In fact, this should be viewed more as an environmental thought exercise/starter than something that’s actually grounded in reality. But then there’s Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Clinton’s former primary rival could win three electoral votes in Vermont (via McLatchy):
Bernie Sanders doesn’t want to be president, but he can win three electoral votes in Vermont.
Because Vermont is one of seven states that allows voters to write anyone they want into the presidential nomination process, even if that person does not intend to run for office.
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the two most hated presidential candidates in history, and Google searches for write-in voting are skyrocketing.
Vermont is one of the states that most often asks Google for write-in votes. A write-in vote for Sanders in Vermont would be treated as a vote for Trump or Clinton.
Only in the states of Vermont, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Iowa and Oregon can voters add any person to the presidential nomination list.
It’s an compelling map if McMullin and Sanders could take those votes away from Clinton and Trump. Even if Clinton wins all of Maine’s electoral votes (two awarded State WinnerWith two others awarded by congressional district) and three of Nebraska’s five votes (two go to the state winner, three are awarded by congressional district), the former First Lady loses by one vote; Trump is miniature by ten votes in a 269-260 split. Let’s say Nebraska splits 3-2 with Trump. Clinton is still miniature by 270, 268-261. If Trump sweeps all of Maine and Nebraska (remember, if), he’ll be miniature 267-262. Clinton would have to sweep Nebraska, which won’t happen, to get 270. It’s certainly compelling, but this map, like McMullin’s scenario, also relies on certain factors, some of which may be a stretch for Trump in the face of these sexual harassment allegations.
Trump must win New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina—all states Clinton could easily win on Election Day (especially New Hampshire). Now Trump may have trouble in Arizona. I still have hopes that Trump will win Utah and Arizona, but even if he wins the rest of the uncertainties (Ohio, Iowa, and Florida), Clinton will still win. Now, if he wins New Hampshire and Clinton beats Clinton in Vermont, then in a tie 269-269*.
*In this scenario, Clinton takes all of Maine and Trump sweeps Nebraska.
