by Casey Harper
With less than half a year until the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump has a significant lead over incumbent President Joe Biden in several swing states.
While overall national polls are mixed and point to a tighter race, Trump has a significant lead in several swing states.
According to Real clear policyTrump leads in many key battleground states such as Arizona (+5.2), Georgia (+4.6), Michigan (+0.8), Nevada (+6.2), North Carolina (+5, 4), Pennsylvania (+2.0) and Wisconsin (+0.6).
Other polls have shown Trump with a commanding lead in the Sun Belt, while he is underperforming Biden in some swing rust belt states.
“As the old saying goes, good gets better and bad gets worse, and it’s clear that President Biden is in bad shape right now.” – Colin Reed, Republican strategist, former campaign manager for U.S. Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts, and co-founder of South and Hill Strategies, told The Center Square. “Five and a half months is an eternity in politics, and in theory there is still time to right the ship, but it is getting late for the president, especially when Father Time remains undefeated and doubts about his age continue to grow.”
According to the Real Clear Politics national polling average, Trump leads Biden 46.1% to 44.9%.
New York Times vote released this week showed Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania but slightly ahead of Biden in Wisconsin, raising concerns among supporters.
Trump’s lead was largely fueled by minority voters who sided with him.
Meanwhile, Biden’s support has plummeted since taking office. While this is not unusual for incumbent presidents, Biden’s approval ratings are lower than for recent presidents.
Recently Gallup released polling data shows that in the 13th quarter of Biden’s presidency, his approval rating averaged 38.7%, which was worse than Trump’s during the same period of his term.
“None of the other nine first-term presidents since Dwight Eisenhower had a lower Q13 average than Biden,” Gallup said.
Axles reported this week, Biden and his team believe that polls do not reflect Americans’ true feelings and that the president’s position is powerful.
“They still have a 50 percent (well, 45 percent) winning margin, based on betting markets,” pollster Nate Silver wrote in X. “But Biden has been ahead of Trump in the polls for a year now. His approval rating is unlimited, and voters have made it clear that they think he’s too old. If Trump wins, history will not remember Biden kindly.”
Meanwhile, Trump is spending valuable campaign time making countless court appearances in federal court.
“I am ordered to remain silent,” Trump told reporters after Tuesday’s court hearing. “No one has actually seen anything like it… I beat him in every poll and I’m banned from speaking, so I think it’s completely unconstitutional.”
Republicans sharply criticized Biden for impeaching Trump, accusing Biden of using the Justice Department against his political opponent.
“Despite illegal election interference by far-left Democrats, President Trump is beating Joe Biden in the polls!” Rep. Elise Stefanik, RN.Y., wrote on Tuesday. “Voters clearly see Biden’s sham trials and know that President Trump is the best choice for president.”
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Casey Harper is a reporter for the DC Bureau of Central Square.
Photo “Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0. “Joe Biden” photo by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0. Cover photo “The White House” by Rene DeAnda
