Hillary’s average lead in national polls is just over five percentage pointsthat number was lowered by the clear exception Justin told you about earlier, but boosted by the latest Fox News poll — which Katie wrote about and which is in line with most other polls. The previous two installments of the Fox series had Clinton ahead by three and two points, respectively. Now? She’s he jumped out to a seven-point lead:
#BEATING! @FoxNews #Vote Clinton’s lead over Trump is now 7 points, up from 2 points last week. More here: https://t.co/W134MGMate photo:twitter.com/lL2deuQD5G
— Fox News Poll (@foxnewspoll) October 13, 2016
Looking in the middleTrump has a very needy reputation (35/63), while Hillary has a merely needy one (45/54). She crushes him on qualifications and temperament, and somehow even outshines him on credibility, although her results are also terrible on that front. The poll also measures overall congressional votes about D+6which would spell gigantic trouble for the minor league Republicans. The sample for this poll is slightly more Democratic (D+9), which predicts a more Democratic electorate than the 2008 blue wave. I have given up on “skewed” polls after 2012, but it will be fascinating to see if this number holds up in the next round of Fox data. Leaving aside the methodological issues of a single poll, the problem for Trump is that the last five national surveys (with a four-candidate race) give Clinton leads of five, six, seven, nine, and seven points — excluding Rasmussen’s sore thumb, Trump’s plus two. two-way voting is worse for him, in case you were wondering. Regardless, national polls aren’t going very far. What’s happening in the states? First, some good news for Team Trump, from Ohio and New Hampshire:
NBC/WSJ/Marist Ohio Poll
42% for Trump
Clinton 41%
Johnson 9%
Stein 4%2-way: HRC 45%, Trump 45%
(October 10-12, LV)— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 13, 2016
He had previously trailed in four consecutive Ohio polls after leading in six in a row. The NBC/WSJ numbers predict robust GOP turnout in Ohio compared with 2012, what is not unwise bet. Hillary has a slight edge there, but that’s very fragile. And here’s New Hampshire:
WBUR/MassINC New Hampshire poll (change from last):
Clinton 41 (-1)
38 votes (+3)
Johnson 11 (-2)Hillary’s lead in RCP has fallen to an average of 3.6
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) October 14, 2016
Trump is still down, but at least he is competitive and tightening up. On the other hand, Trump’s campaign is withdrawal from Virginialosing ground (again) in Pennsylvaniastruggling with Florida (AND not only in the polls) and now consistently lagging behind in North Carolina:
NBC/WSJ/Marist North Carolina Poll
Clinton 45%
41% for Trump
Johnson 9%2-way: HRC 48%, Trump 43%
(October 10-12, LV)— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 13, 2016
North Carolina (Suffolk) Poll
Clinton 45% (+4 since early September)
43% support for Trump (-1)
Johnson 5% (+1)#NCsenBurr 40% (-1)
Rossa 36% (-1)— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 13, 2016
The radiant spot in all this is the Senate picture, which we discussed earlier this week. No Republican Senate candidate in the contested race faltered, and virtually all of them finished well ahead of Trump in their states. Fox I noticed this trendalso, just like FiveThirtyEight:
Several GOP Senate candidates in key races are ahead of Trump in key swing states photo: twitter.com/y3mDOgSDGg
— Fox News Research (@FoxNewsResearch) October 14, 2016
Clinton seems to be gaining ground on Trump, but her coattails currently look faint, nonexistent, or negative. Indeed, the fresh Republican Party Poll in Indiana shows Todd Young passing a struggling Evan Bayh for the first time in Indiana, and another shows Joe Heck modest conduct in Nevada is holding steady. Kelly Ayotte is tied with his Democratic rival in the Granite State poll above, and a vast majority of voters in the state say they did the right thing by not supporting Donald Trump. The rollercoaster ride continues, with increasingly ugly turns and expected twists and turns along the way. Less than a month to go. I’ll leave you with this clever ad in the Missouri Senate race:
