So here’s some surprising news: Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton in Virginia by three pointsaccording to the Hampton University Center for Public Policy. Of course, this poll is an outlier (at the moment), but last month the former first lady had a solid 12-point lead (via CPP):
Democratic presidential candidate Clinton had a two-point lead before the email was released on Friday, October 28. She is now three points behind Republican presidential candidate Trump.
With just six days left before the November presidential election, Trump has overtaken Clinton, erasing a 12-point deficit reported by the CPP in early October. Trump’s surge underscores once again how lopsided the race for the White House has been as we approach the final days of Decision 2016. It’s the first time Clinton has trailed in the CPP polls this year; the last poll was conducted Oct. 26-30.
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The poll was conducted by Hampton University Center for Public Policy (CPP) from October 26–30, 2016, surveying 802 registered voters who said they were “likely” to vote in the November 8, 2016, general election in Virginia.
The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.57% for the entire sample.
The sample size is good (600 is usually the minimum in a state poll), the margin of error is within normal limits — but it’s doubtful that Virginia is in the running. Just now, Fox News’ Brit Hume and Karl Rove have essentially admitted that Clinton will win the state; Real Clear Politics AverageEven with the CPP poll, Clinton is leading by three points. Washington Post/Schar School of Politics and Government poll points to Lady Macbeth ahead by six:
Hillary Clinton maintains a lead over Donald Trump in Virginia just one week before Election Day, but her six-point advantage is far from indisputable, according to a up-to-date poll. up-to-date Washington Post-Schar School poll.
Antipathy toward Trump in vote-rich counties near Washington bolsters Clinton’s overall lead in the state, although a majority of Virginia voters have unfavorable views of both candidates.
The poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, showed no immediate drop in Clinton’s support following Friday’s announcement that the FBI was examining more emails that could be relevant to the investigation into the former secretary of state’s private email server. In fact, Clinton had the largest lead in the poll conducted Saturday and Sunday. But that result may be due in part to the more demographically diverse sample of voters reached on those days.
What does Clinton support in Virginia? You guessed it: the liberal stronghold of Northern Virginia. But when it comes to mudslinging, more voters think Clinton is willing to bend the rules (74 percent) than those who think Trump is biased against women and minorities, although that was also high at 57 percent. Sixty percent view Trump unfavorably, while Clinton’s unfavorable ratings climb to about 57 percent. Both are deeply unpopular, although it shows that GOP attacks on Clinton’s character, particularly her tendency to play by a different set of rules, are resonating with voters. They know she’s a lying, dishonest candidate; the problem is that Trump isn’t much better. So the outlier poll, plus this WaPo poll showing Clinton with a six-point lead — what do the Schar School think? Do they agree with Rove and Hume? No — they think Virginia is still in the running:
Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, said Clinton’s lead doesn’t seem impressive when considered in historical context.
Rozell noted that polls conducted in recent U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections in off-years have overestimated the Democratic advantage. Three years ago, for example, Democrat Terry McAuliffe was leading by 12 percentage points at this point in the governor’s race and won by just three points, Rozell said.
“Bottom line, Virginia is still in the game,” he said.
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Donna Hakki, 50, of Glen Allen voted for Bill Clinton but also for Mitt Romney. Now she supports Trump. “He’s not a professional politician, and I just felt like we needed a change,” she said.
Hakki, who has two daughters in college and a son in his final year of high school, admits she feels uncertain about their future and worries about the direction the country is heading.
She said she was not concerned about criticism of Trump as being biased against women and minorities.
“No, he created jobs for everyone, and my mother taught me when I was a kid that actions speak louder than words,” she said.
Carolyn Cole, a 73-year-old homemaker from Hanover County, outside Richmond, also accepts Trump’s controversial behavior.
“Some of this stuff was really old,” Cole said. “I would tell someone like that [former congressman] Anthony Weiner or those in the Senate or Congress, that you who are without sin cast the first stone. I think that’s not unusual. Men can be men.”
Certainly a much better picture than most predicted, especially after the Access Hollywood bombshell that sent the Republican Party into crisis mode. In that episode, Trump was caught making lewd remarks about women in a 2005 talk show tape. He has mostly recovered from the aftermath of those two miserable weeks. Virginia may be in play for some, although the campaign would do well to focus on solidifying support in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and maybe Colorado. The road ahead for Trump remains arduous, but one thing is clear: the race is tightening, which says a lot more about Clinton’s candidacy. She’s faint.
