Former President Donald Trump leads the ever-shrinking field of 2024 GOP presidential candidates, and a fresh Morning Consult national primary poll shows the 45th president leading the field by a whopping 50 points as 2023 enters its final weeks and the first early weeks of 2023 approach to state primary competitions.
It took place on November 24-26 this year questionnaire showed that Trump received the support of 64% of Republican primary voters, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis – 14%, former ambassador Nikki Haley – 10%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy – 6% and former governor Chris Christie – 3%.
According to Morning Consult, Trump’s already significant lead could widen as 29 percent – or “many non-Trump supporters” – named the former president as their second choice in 2024. “Such voters make up about 10% of the expected GOP electorate, suggesting that support for the former president may continue to grow if candidates with lower polling positions withdraw their bids.
After the primary, Trump faces another general election battle with Joe Biden – in a contest where his prospects currently look promising, with the largest lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average of his career.
“Trump leads Biden nationwide by 2.6 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics average.” explained Sean Trende, senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, in an article titled “Trump Not Only Can Win, But He’s Now the Favorite to Win.”
“This is Trump’s biggest lead in the RCP average so far,” Trende noted. “Not for 2024, remember. Never.”
During the former president’s first presidential campaign, “Trump led Hillary Clinton on all five days in the national RCP average, and each of those days immediately after the Republican convention,” Trende recalled. “He led in 29 polls conducted throughout the campaign, 10 of which are recorded in RCP polling averages as Los Angeles Times/USC tracking polls.”
About four years ago, during his re-election campaign, “Trump never led Biden in the national RCP average,” Trende recalled. “He briefly got close to four points at the beginning of January 2020, but that was it. He led in five polls throughout the cycle.” Trende’s analysis shows that this time around, Trump “has led in more polls over the past three weeks than Biden did in the entire 2019-2020 period.”
At the state level, Trump also impresses with his previous polling performance, as scratched by Trende for RCP:
Trump leads in the RCP average in Michigan for the first timewhenever.
Pennsylvania? Leads for first timeand leads in most polls.
He walked narrowly Biden in Wisconsin but he has already led in almost as many polls as he led in the state in 2016 and 2020 combined. His 0.7% deficit compares to his previous state best: a 3.5% deficit in August 2020.
Florida? Trump has he was leading or tied in every pollincluding several double-digit prospects.
Arizona? He leads the table by five Average T&A.
Georgia? He leads by six.
Ohio? Polls are few and far between but he leads 10th.
Still, Trende’s analysis made clear that current polling “absolutely” does not mean Trump will win on Election Day 2024. A lot can change between now and the next 300-plus days, and there are an almost infinite number of ways in which Americans’ views Trump’s policies and candidacy may change over the next year due to Biden’s decision.
However, as things currently stand, “Trump is in a better position in the polls to win this election than any GOP candidate since at least 2004,” Trende concluded.
