What many political observers initially expected to be a mammoth showdown between Georgia’s incumbent Republican governor and the former president of the United States turned out to be an unequal fight. Brian Kemp crushed Donald Trump’s chosen challenger in the GOP primary, advancing to a gubernatorial rematch with Democrat Stacey Abrams in November. Abrams enters the pre-election campaign in a defensive position, engaging in damage control over her.”worst condition“a mistake I caused to myself – while simultaneously talking incoherently about how “increased turnout has nothing to do with suppression” while her “Jim Crow 2.0” demagogy goes up in smoke. Her opponent is the man who defeated her four years ago in a much more favorable democratic environment. The fact that she was spreading conspiratorial lies Since then, she has not changed the reality in which she gained fame and fortune by denying it. Before we look too far ahead, let’s evaluate the significance of Kemp’s original play, along with some additional notes from last night:
(1) Trump is still top dog… Many analysts write and talk about what a large blow this is to Trump’s influence. It is certainly a significant loss, and a painful one at that. Trump badly wanted to defeat Kemp as revenge for Kemp’s rightful and honorable refusal to assist the former president in his attempt to steal Georgia’s electoral votes in 2020. That Trump’s proxy, David Perdue, was crushed is, in my opinion, a well sign for the republic. But Trump’s critics and skeptics should not kid themselves. He has had several notable wins in other statewide races between J.D. Vance in Ohio and potentially Dr. Ozem in Pennsylvania. Failures occurred (Governor of Idaho and Nebraskafor example), but the notion that Trump’s power in the party is clearly waning still strikes me as too much wishful thinking. As it stands, Trump will enter the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries as… massive frontman.
(2) …But Trump is not invincible. The importance of Kemp’s victory can be overstated, but it shouldn’t be underestimated either. Trump threw everything at him. Perdue’s entry into the race has been marked Trump ad ‘complete and total.’. The former president’s operation and allies poured time and money into the race. Trump interfered aggressively, including an in-person rally. This wasn’t some one-time blessing. It was personal. Kemp was exceptionally disciplined; he never attacked Trump, delivering a “hey, I’m not here to argue” message to rank-and-file GOP voters in the Peach State. He couldn’t avoid Trump’s wrath, but he avoided stoking them. Instead, by focusing on scoring conservative victories as governor, Kemp has turned his fire on Stacey Abrams, “waking up the corporations” and other opponents who unite center-right Georgians in opposition. In other words, Kemp has amassed useful enemies and has a track record of defeating them. This policy deep dive Kemp’s campaign shows how focused, ruthless and effective the incumbent president’s actions were. Fragment:
When Brian Kemp’s major donors gathered with the Georgia governor and his lieutenants at the Capital City Club in Atlanta earlier this year, they had reason to fear that his political career was coming to an end… Kemp’s team he assured the nearly 200 wealthy attendees at the conference that they had a plan… Before Perdue launched his campaign in December, he discovered that Kemp had used the levers of his office to gain the support of state power players and pass legislation that appeased pro-Trump voters. Kemp won the support of many of Perdue’s former longtime advisers, making it complex for Perdue to build a political operation. The governor spent months aggressively courting the former senator’s biggest donors, driving Perdue into financial ruin and thwarting his plans to create a high-performing super PAC.
…Last June, Kemp called Steve Hufstetler, a Georgia real estate developer and major Republican Party donor, and asked if they could meet at Hufstetler’s office. At first glance, Hufstetler was the type of donor who could fund Perdue’s primary goal: He had donated six figures to Trump’s re-election effort, had served on Perdue’s Senate campaign finance committee and was concerned about Kemp’s handling of the 2020 election. After the election, he conducted an informal survey of Kemp supporters he knew and found that they no longer supported the governor. But During the 90-minute meeting, Kemp sought to influence Hufstetler by providing POLITICO with what the developer later described as a “long and data-driven explanation” for why he did not intervene in the vote count. Hufstetler walked away convinced and ultimately donated over $100,000 to the governor. The courtship illustrates how aggressively Kemp has moved to deprive Perdue of money, effectively shutting down his fundraising tank.
They had a plan and boy, did they execute it. Kempa was there wisely gracious to Perdue in his victory speech on Tuesday night, but he also reveled in the extent of his dominance:
>@GovKemp trumpets the triumph of its allies over far-right challengers backed by Trump. “Looks like Team Kemp is chopping a lot of wood tonight.” #chapol pic.twitter.com/W5HM7OhQ3S
— Greg Bluestein (@bluestein) May 25, 2022
And that’s it good linewith the general in mind, especially if he is married with reminders of the Abrams optics issue due to COVID restrictions:
Brian Kemp notes in his victory speech that Stacey Abrams criticized him for reopening Georgia too quickly during the pandemic. And he warns that if he wins, the state will forever be one Covid variant away from further lockdowns. But he promises he will never impose Covid restrictions.
— James Hohmann (@jameshohmann) May 25, 2022
(3) The “wow” margin. At the end of the race, a pale and indigestion-stricken Perdue said he still didn’t believe polls pointing to an outbreak. “I fucking guarantee we didn’t drop 30 points.” he said. He was right, just not in the sense he meant. As of this morning, with over 90 percent of votes cast, he is about 50 points behind him. Total shelling. It’s not just that Kemp ran a high-quality campaign, although he did. Trump’s endless, misplaced complaints are no longer noticeable even among many of Trump’s 2016 and 2020 voters. Not necessarily the hardcore members of his base, but some of his supporters who are more interested in GOP victories and Democratic defeats than in personal loyalty dramas. This sentiment may be particularly mighty in Georgia, where Trump’s claims lowered turnout among Republicans and thus handed two Senate seats – and thus control of the US Senate – to Democrats last year:
Georgia highlights one of Trump’s biggest problems if/when he runs again. He obviously won’t be able to let go of the nonsense of 2020 and no one wants to hear him whining about it anymore.
— Brendan Buck (@BrendanBuck) May 25, 2022
“No one” is too mighty a word, but there is a lot of truth in it. A huge number of right-wing voters are still huge MAGA/America First enthusiasts. But a lot of them they are clearly not interested endless fight back to 2020:
Nearly every “stop the steal” Republican is being rejected by Republicans in Georgia tonight. The message is that voters want to move forward, not resolve Trump’s grievances against him.
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) May 25, 2022
(4) Some other ink stains. Trump’s guy didn’t just lose the governor’s contest in Georgia. He was also chosen as attorney general absolutely delighted by the sitting president and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger – whose Trump personally under pressure “find” the 2020 presidential votes and who became the target of “stop the steal” anger – was renominated by an overwhelming majority, avoid runoff. His Trump-backed challenger outperformed Perdue, but not by enough. Two Republicans defending the institution did not maintain their position and regained their party’s nominations. this is essential and uplifting in my book.
Meanwhile in Alabama, Rep. Mo Brooks he came back from the dead force a runoff in that state’s GOP Senate elections (though he finished a distant second). He did it not because of Trump’s support, but because of him lost one. the former president was unhappy with Brooks’ destitute showing in the polls a few weeks ago, fearing his horse would finish an embarrassing and distant third. Trying to avoid this political black eye, he withdrew his previously “total and total” support for Brooks under the absurd claim that Brooks – a fire-breathing right-wing stop-the-steal compatriot – is “woke.” Brooks continued to promote himself as a MAGA candidate in the race, albeit after Trump’s very public break with him. That’s when he got up. This return, about which Trump can have no doubt, Mastriano style credit, is worthy of attention. Again, this does not mean that Trump’s influence over the GOP is waning or irreversibly diminishing. Many, many Republicans want Trump’s imprimatur. But that doesn’t prove anything either.
(5) Lonestar State Notes. Tuesday was a very murky day in Texas history for obvious and painful reasons. The elections have, of course, moved forward. Among other things, in a key border district, a more moderate Democrat (the only Democrat in the House to oppose the party’s radical abortion bill) could barely mount a Squad-style challenge, narrowly winning in a runoff, pending final results. It should be competitive place in November. And with an simple renomination of the state attorney general, the multi-generational Bush political dynasty could succeed be finished?
The Bush family’s latest Texas primary defeat before tonight: pic.twitter.com/wTFtBcM8Sv
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) May 25, 2022
