After his decisive victory on Super Tuesday, Trump’s political dynamics look eerily similar to the 2016 campaign cycle. A common pitfall of political pundits is to express opinions about the 2024 elections only in the context of the last election in 2020. We can certainly learn lessons from 2020, but this only reveals a fragment of our recent political history. Expanding the scope of the analysis to the 2016 campaign gives a clearer picture of what this election will look like in November.
As former President Trump runs his third presidential campaign, we are dealing with three distinct eras: Trump as a once-in-a-century insurgent political figure, the incumbent president, and the current challenger. Of these eras, Trump’s candidacy was the weakest while he was in office, and while there are some debatable factors that defined this era (such as COVID), he has successfully pivoted to run in a lane where he feels more comfortable and shows more favorably to send him back to the Oval Office.
Echoing the insurgency theme of his best-performing 2016 campaign, Trump can fight Biden’s record rather than alone and operate a political maxim that will get voters to think about what they are really voting for: “Is Is your life better today than it was four years ago?” The advantage of another insurrectionary campaign goes to Trump.
Much of Trump’s success in 2016, despite many false narratives such as Russian collusion fueled by a corrupt media, was based almost entirely on speaking directly about the problems of the “forgotten men and women.” Today we see that same electorate solidifying their switch to Trump’s version of the Republican Party. Just like in 2016 Today’s most essential issues are more closely interconnected with Trump and Republicans than with Biden and Democrats.
Last Cygnal polls show the economy and illegal immigration are top issues for voters, with both Trump and Republicans getting high ratings, while Biden’s numbers continue to decline. Illegal immigration has increased by 10 points in two months, and a quarter of Americans say it is now their main concern. Trump’s alignment with America’s most essential issues gives him an advantage here, too.
In 2016, the battleground map, or swing states, included Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida. Trump’s rise fueled massive political shifts already underway, with working-class voters in these states leaning toward the Republican Party, which just two cycles earlier had been seen as the party of the elite.
Now the battlefield map has changed. Georgia, Nevada and Arizona replace Florida and Ohio, joining Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as must-win states. In 2016, Trump fought challenging to win these battlegrounds. His message resonated widely and his base was highly motivated to take action. Although the battlefield map is different from the one in 2016, it is more favorable to Trump, so he has an advantage here too.
Hillary Clinton’s weaknesses in 2016 and Joe Biden’s weaknesses are vastly different, but both are considered tender candidates even though they have numerous advantages ranging from favorable media to deep funding from coastal elites. Biden’s pandemic-era victory seems more like a star in presidential election politics, and he’s getting weaker by the day.
Voters will likely have a challenging time imagining a presidential debate between Biden and Trump, let alone believing the debate will happen at all. Rallies are extremely essential in any campaign. We don’t see a Biden rally, and most Americans inherently know there’s no need for a basement campaign strategy – they’ll look it over carefully and conclude that the lack of vigor in running a time-honored national campaign is age-related – which is true – and therefore less enthusiastic about speaking on Biden’s behalf.
A robust vice president would usually be the logical solution for a fledgling president, but Kamala Harris is somehow even less favorable than Biden. Trump’s strength in this area gives him an advantage, and if he chooses a complementary running mate, it will only enhance his advantage over Biden.
Combining the advantages of an insurgent campaign, superiority on key issues, a recent and favorable battlefield map, and historically tender opponents, the 2024 election will be Trump’s to lose. Despite a string of Super Tuesday victories this week and virtually clinching the GOP nomination, he still faces significant challenges, including winning over millions of voters on Election Day, encouraging early voting and putting these issues front and center. If he succeeds, he will be victorious and add to his legacy the greatest comeback in political history.
