Editor’s note: This column was co-authored by Michael Petrilli.
Since the May 5 election resultsvol have been finalized, many voices have loudly praised cherry-picked concerns — namely, the primary defeats of two incumbent Republicans in the Indiana Legislature — to build what they want to present as a broader narrative about growing opposition to Common Core. This narrative is misleading. In fact, the GOP’s primary results throughout the month have shown, if anything, that opposing Common Core is not a ticket to office in the event of a right-flank challenge to an incumbent, and that the effectiveness of trying to eliminate Republicans on the right is vastly overrated. By the same token, there is growing evidence that sitting Republicans supporting Common Core will continue to be supported by their conservative base.
Activists publicizing the Indiana pogroms only tell half of the main Hoosier story. It’s worth noting that state Reps. Kathy Heuer and Rebecca Kubacki were equally affected by the defeat social issues like education reform, and anti-Common Core activists have had much less success in other parts of the Hoosier state. State Republican Robert Behning, an early supporter of Common Core in Indiana, won the primary against challenger Mike Scott, who campaigned vigorously against the standards and other productive elements of education reform. Meanwhile, GOP state Sen. James Merritt triumphed in his primary contest over Crystal Lamotte, who encouraged her supporters with a provocative message: “We need one last show of support against Common Core!”
In neighboring Ohio, incumbent state Republican Stephanie Kunze notably defeated Pat Manley, the anti-Community Core candidate. Meanwhile, Kellie Kohl of Ohioans Against the Common Core lost her state Senate primary to Republican Shannon Jones, whom Kohl strongly attacked for supporting Common Core by a huge margin of 69.5 to 30.5. If the conservative base of the Republican Party in Ohio is committed to jettisoning Common Core and adopting the hardline Tea Party message, they have an exceptionally confusing way of showing it.
In North Carolina, the anti-Common Core agenda proved as woefully out of touch with conservative Southern voters as it was with their Midwestern counterparts, as evidenced by the only two incumbents who lost primary battles. In District 80, challenger Sam Watford made the unusual claim that “not all the best ideas are conservative ideas” and defeated incumbent Republican Roger Younts, who leans strongly to the right. In District 95, “business conservative” challenger John Fraley abruptly interrupted the political career of incumbent Robert Brawley, who is more affiliated with the Tea Party and has been an outspoken critic of statewide (and national) establishment GOP candidate Thom Tillis.
The latest primary results from May 20 further showed that opposition to Common Core is not winning with conservative GOP voters.
In Georgia, Gov. Nathan Deal – who maintained his state’s standards – crushed a high-profile Common Core opponent by 55 points. In the U.S. Senate race, David Perdue won the most votes in a crowded primary and a place in the runoff, even though he expressed support for Common Core’s intentions and was the cousin of Sonny Perdue, the former governor who endorsed Common Core in the first place. House Education Committee Chairman Brooks Coleman (R-97vol), a staunch supporter of Common Core, easily overtook Common Core opponents in a race focused on educational standards even without calling a second round.
In Idaho, Republican Gov. Butch Otter has been a robust and persistent supporter of Common Core, as have conservative Republicans in other Red States. He easily defeated his main challenger, Russ Fulcher, a staunch opponent common core. Like Governor Deal, Governor Otter is widely expected to win re-election in November.
In Arkansas, there was incumbent state Republican Randy Alexander he welcomed by the group Arkansas Against Common Core as “Our beloved advocate and sponsor of our legislation.” His main competitor, Lance Eads, is the vice president of the local Chamber of Commerce, the national version of which is widely known for its support of Common Core. Eads defeated Rep. in the primary. Alexander by a difference of 58-42%.
All of these facts align well with Republican pollster John McLaughlin’s recent findings that a majority of voters – including conservative voters in the GOP primary – are not opposed to this state-led, teacher-backed attempt at education reform. The poll found overall support for the standards, and even robust support among GOP voters (59-35 percent) who were read a neutral description of the standards. Moreover, the poll shows that more conservative GOP voters would vote for a candidate who supports Common Core over a candidate who opposes it in a primary. Given this reality, it is not surprising that conservative Republicans in states such as Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana and Tennessee have rejected attempts to overturn the Common Core.
Even Indiana, a state initially considered “the first state to withdraw from the Common Core” adopted standards quite similar to Common Core, although in the opinion of both worse both supporters and opponents. So far, states are in no rush to follow Indiana’s example, and in fact, Kansas – a state that was recently thought to be on the verge of making significant change – ended the session by choosing to stay the course with the Common Core.
So far, the underlying results and current developments across the country largely prove what those polls prophetically predicted: Republican candidates cannot win over conservative voters by attacking Common Core.
