Even as they celebrated the president’s, er, “victory” in the second debate, Team Obama found itself in the unenviable position of denying reports that it was essentially withdrawing from four swing states are taking the final electoral gauntlet. The election rumor mill started with: National Journal Major Garrett’s piece which included (read: buried) this tempting nugget:
After the dust from the chaos on Long Island began to settle, it became clear that the electoral map had narrowed and the Obama team, while admitting nothing publicly, was circling Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada in wagons. Plouffe said Obama remains sturdy in all four states, but he would not discuss details of internal polling or voter contact analyses, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places. Giving ground on any ground is uncharacteristic for Team Obama, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia or Florida. Romney’s advisers have seen huge gains in all three states and now believe victories in all three are likely, though not guaranteed. They are similarly sanguine about the prospects in Colorado, but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe crossed Colorado off his list of states where Obama leads and can withstand a Romney wave power to talk
A second look at Suffolk? Within hours, Obama’s traveling spokeswoman Jen Psaki released the must-read video “no way:”
Obama’s traveling press secretary Jen Psaki said Wednesday that the campaign was effective “absolutely not” giving in to efforts in Florida, North Carolina and Virginiathree battleground states where the president failed to keep pace with Mitt Romney. An Obama campaign spokeswoman said that President Obama’s performance in North Carolina was among the best in the country and that the campaign expected supporters in key swing states to be energized by Obama’s performance during Tuesday night’s debate…“We will still run every state like we are five points behind.” Psaki said.
Chicago’s problem is that they can Actually in North Carolina to trail by about five points. Although they do not formally kiss the country goodbye, the actions taken as part of the campaign speak volumes. Policy reads between the lines: :
President Obama hasn’t set foot in the state since his convention ended nearly six weeks ago. When he lands in Iowa and New Hampshire this week, every other battleground state will get to enjoy Obama’s personal post-convention love, except the Tar Heel State.
Combine Obama’s conspicuous absence with whispers that his campaign is cutting back on spending in the Tar Heel State, and it’s not a huge leap to suggest that their priorities lie elsewhere. If Garrett’s story is to be believed, that’s what it would mean Ohio, Iowa, Nevada AND New Hampshirewhere David Plouffe claims Obama has “significant leads.” What counts as “significant” these days? Recent surveys have shown that the breed is even extinct in all four states (see previous links). The latter two will likely be more successful for Romney’s campaign, but they are still in play. For a fun snapshot of the Hawkeye State, check this out full page advertising In Des Moines Registersigned by former Obama voters who rejected their own votes. The early voting numbers are in it’s starting to get better also for Republicans in this state. In the meantime, let’s take a look at a state that hasn’t been mentioned in a while: Wisconsin. A game of tie ball: :
Presidential race in Wisconsin is essentially tied in a up-to-date poll from Marquette Law School, with President Obama at 49% and Mitt Romney at 48%.which is consistent with the progress Romney has made nationwide since his first debate with Obama in Denver on October 3. That’s a marked change since the last Marquette poll conducted Sept. 27-30, in which Obama led by 11 points. The Senate race is also virtually close in Marquette’s poll, with Republican Tommy Thompson at 46% and Democrat Tammy Baldwin at 45%.
If you’re curious, this poll is split seems okayif not a point or too generous to Democrats. Plouffe’s firewall calculations for OH/IA/NV/NH made no mention of the basic assumption that states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are firmly on the O side. Given the up-to-date Marquette survey and other data we have I saw recentlyI’m not sure if Obama, Inc. he is currently sleeping well in either of these states. Right now, Obama’s picture across the country looks even bleaker. According to Gallup’s latest tracker, Romney has two advantages registered voters. With probability? Feast your eyes (via MKH):
That’s a six-point lead for the challenger coming into overdue October – and not where the incumbent president would even want to be, for historical reasons explained by Karl Rove Here. But before conservatives start measuring the curtains of the Oval Office, a few solemn caveats: (1) Rasmussen (you know, the “biased” and “Republican” pollster who liberals routinely dismiss) points to a much closer race, with Obama slightly ahead in swing states – which is a far cry from USA today/Gallup numbers from the beginning of the week. (2) Romney’s lead was measured to be huge and growing earlier to the second debate, where Obama stepped up his game. A few million viewers less than before, but the viewership remained still huge. Romney won the evening on the economy, but Obama had a slight advantage overall: a tie, but an improvement over the devastation in Denver. The president will likely close the gap somewhat by simply energizing his core supporters. On the other hand, for what it’s worth, PPP is Democrat-backed not detected any bounce from Obama throughout the entire voting day on Wednesday. Hmm. (3) No one on either side seems to expect a landslide victory for Romney in November. Think about this: even when political interference swung everything in his direction in 2008, Barack Obama won by only seven points. The idea that Romney could achieve a similar result this year seems, at least for now, a bit far-fetched. I think it’s almost certain that this race will be tight.
UPDATE – Romney held a rally in northern Virginia last night. If you think that for some reason tempers on the right have cooled, think again. The crowd was huge and absolutely electrifying, and the candidate was confident and at ease. I’ll look for a video, but here’s a photo as a placeholder:
UPDATE – Here’s the whole movie. It’s worth watching the whole thing, as Romney changes his stump speech to reference last night’s debate. If you’re pressed for time, watch the crowd’s reaction to Romney’s mention of the debates (1:45), the candidate’s impromptu jokes about a helicopter flying overhead (19:40), and the huge crescendo at the end (21:15). Enthusiasm: :
UPDATE II – Rasmussen Thursday tracker (taking into account information obtained after the debate) increases Romney’s advantage to two points, and the Republican gains a slight swing advantage. Gallup and Rasmussen have been playing tag lately, so don’t be surprised to see Romney’s lead in Gallup shrink a bit.
UPDATE III – Related press reports Romney’s campaign is considering pulling resources from up-and-coming states like North Carolina to mount a more aggressive attack in “bluer” states.
UPDATE IV – Wow. Gallup tracker yes expanded Romney leads among likely voters up to seven points52-45. This includes a data day after the debate. I still expect real monetary tightening, but clearly not yet. (IBD/TIPP and Democratic PPP show today’s race was an exact draw. TIPP runs on a D+7 sample).