Immediately outside the gate, a few words of caution against republican enthusiasm. First of all, as we also wrote in our Nevada analysis on Monday, there is too much extrapolation from incomplete early or postal voting patterns, especially in comparison with 2020. This year it contained a confluence of events at Black Swan level: Presidential elections among the extremely disturbing and passing global pandemic. Using these choices, after which Joe Biden gave a speech to the fresh air victory for fans who polish their corners in their cars, as a basis for many things it seems … potentially defective in terms of sound analysis. Continue caution. Secondly, the indicators from the day of choosing Florida looked incredibly robust for GOP in 2022, because they was Extremely robust. Florida was deeply red, in an unprecedented way. The problem for the National Party was that the expected “red wave” did not disappoint, did not materialize or completely withdraw (with several exceptions in places such as Ohio and Iowa). Republicans in Florida blew up it. But this did not translate into many vital races throughout the country.
Thanks to these vital reservations and reservations, it certainly looks like Florida will not be in the game when the results appear on November 5. Remember that the final Realclearpolitics Average survey Biden gave leading In Florida four years ago. Trump won three points. The total surveys were turned off by four percentage points. This year Trump runs Harris, Sunshine almost eight points in the same average. Does it seem likely? If we agree that early postal voting is the strongest party of the Democrats, and then early personal personal, and then voting on the day of election (voting patterns in the past increased along this spectrum), then Florida seems to be on the right track to the first call from this year.
Statewide (mail + in person): today GOP shockingly evaporated the lead of Democrats and took the lead.
🔴 Republican: 40.5% [+1.1] (679 702)
🔵 democratic: 39.4% (660 765)
🟡 NPA: 18.1% (304 680)https://t.co/mqzd9bpdo5 pic.twitter.com/6hmehiods– Eric Daughrty (@ericldugh) October 22, 2024
This conservative election analyst from Florida also notes That “in 2022-red Tsunami-Florida Republicans took 3 days to reverse the total early voting. In 2024, less than 1 day passed to overcome the blue wall voting by post. ” Another data point: on the first day or early personal voting, Miami Dade Ferry Basically red. This may not seem like a shock, taking into account the two -digit victory of Ron Desantis in half, but remember that Hillary Clinton dominated In Miami Dade. She He won 30 points. Joe Biden moved him over Trump in 2020, Although more narrow. At the moment it can be on the road so that Trump can apply this time. These numbers are liquid, so I avoid too solid declarations. It is probably possible that the independent will break for Harris in Florida, so the apparent guidance of GOP is a mixture. But how is it likely? Desantis won the independent eight points In 2022, Biden won India in Florida in 2020 by 11 pointsAnd he still lost the state. Gigantic republican registration advantage The party has built (after a long period for years) is real and solid.
Let’s assume, because of the quarrel, that Florida looks quite safe and sound for GOP this year. Would this success be included in Florida and confined Redder places, how did it happen two years ago? Maybe. But at least in two other Sun Belt states, there are some potentially disturbing divination for democrats. We saw many popular women with an early vote that would be relatively good news for Team Blue. It’s on the other hand does not bode well For them:
We are already below the total black participation of voices in which we entered in 2018, 2020 and 2022 ED, and will fall in the next few days.
New territory.
– Michael Pruser (@Michaelpruser) October 22, 2024
Things can change again. Voices will flow throughout the country over the next two weeks. But for a grave decision -making analyst to talk about “new territory” when it comes to low black turnout in Georgia, he probably doesn’t hope that the Democrats hoped at this stage. Especially with Trump’s higher than typical distances among black voters. Observers will carefully watch whether Kamala Harris and Democrats usually have a general problem with the attendance with black voters. To say early, in one way or another, but they are a few warning signs. By the way, Nevada He is still looking Quite close – but look at it:
Early voting blog is updated!
A very great day for republicans in NV: they now have a sporadic advantage in their entire state, they reduced the Clark dam to almost nothing, and rural landslides are huge.
A long way, but the Republicans had a historic day.https://t.co/pl43xblf02
– Jon Ralston (@ralstonreports) October 22, 2024
Speaking about it, I will leave you:
Swing states probe @Redfieldwilton
Florida – 🔴 Trump 49-45%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 49-46%
North Karolina – 🔴 Trump 48-45%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump 48-47%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 47-46%
Pennsylvania – 🟡 tie 48-48%
Michigan – 🟡 Draw 47-47%
Wisconsin – 🔵 Harris 47-46%
——
SENATE
Wisconsin -… pic.twitter.com/vbzf9jnw0t– Interactivepolls (@iApolls2022) October 21, 2024
