Because early voting is already in some states and starting with several dozen more, the elections in 2024 officially began. In the most crucial race for the control of the US Senate, Republicans seem to have a clear advantage-but Democrats still hope that they can maintain control over the chamber or at least limit GOP profits.
Entering this cycle, the Republicans had something that seemed to be one of the most favorable maps for years. While GOP defends only 11 seats, democrats of amazing weapons 23.
Democrats currently have a 51-49 advantage in the Senate, which means that the net loss of even one place puts them in a draw 50-50. In this scenario, the Senate’s control will be determined on the basis of any ticket, the White House wins the role of vice president as the president of the Senate.
Of the 11 republican seats, eight are rated as “Solid GOP”, while one (Josh Hawley in Missouri) is assessed by true pure policy (RCP). Ted Cruza’s place in Texas is assessed as “Leans GOP”, while the Sit of Rick Scott in Florida is assessed as a drop.
According to the latest survey, RCP CRUZ is a leading democratic opponent Colin Allred six points, 48 ​​to 42 percent. Meanwhile, Scott leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 46.3 percent to 42 percent. Both Allred and Mucarsel-Powell are the current members of the US Democrats.
Republicans should not take anything for granted, but 50 days to the day of election, especially in the airy of disappointing phrases in mid -2022. But history suggests that GOP has a reason to be sanguine that Cruz and Scott can stick to their places.
At that moment 2018, Cruz had an almost identical advantage over the progressive beloved Beto O’Rourke. Despite the fact that O’Rourke spent $ 80 million on $ 38.9 million Cruz, Cruz won about three points. Allred has not generated the same national noise as O’Rourke so far and is only slightly before Cruz in raising funds.
Scott faced something that seemed to be an even more tragic situation in Florida six years ago, a survey and neck with a three -year -old Bill Nelson. Scott reached 2.6 points in the final polls, but won slightly over 10,000 votes. This year, Scott has a fundamental advantage, and the whole state tends to Republicans in recent cycles.
What’s more, the leaders of the Democratic Party seem to recognize that winning in Texas or Florida is still long. It was this week that the chairman of the Democratic Campaign Committee Gary Peters from Michigan said that despite the belief that Texas and Florida are “in the game”, the party would not devote more resources to these races.
If the democrats are not able to perform unexpected and won in Florida or Texas, they will have to successfully defend all their 23 places to keep the majority – the perspective that seems gloomy, taking into account the situation in Western Virginia.
With the retirement of Democrats, Joe Manchain in West Virginia, a state that voted for Donald Trump with almost 30 points in 2020, became almost reliable a republican reception. In the last survey in this race, OUT last month, he is a republican candidate of Jim, a leading candidate for the Democrat Glenn Elliott 34 points.
Out of 22 other democrats’ fines, RCP assesses 11 as “Solid D.” Meanwhile, the place of Bob Menendez in New Jersey and Tim Kaine in Virginia are “Probable D.”
Three consecutive races – open place Maryland, headquarters of Jackie Rosen in Nevada and the headquarters of Martin Heinrich in New Mexico – they are assessed as “Lean D.” While Republicans certainly have a chance to fight in these states, especially Larry Hogan’s offer in Maryland, Democrats have an advantage in less than six weeks.
This leaves six seats that currently occupy democrats, which seem to be throws-by-barizona, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Montana.
At the moment, Republicans seem very likely that they have at least one reception in Western Virginia, providing a division of 50-50 if they organize Florida and Texas. Whether GOP has complete control without having to win the White House probably comes down to the result in these six states.
Of these, the best chance of Republicans for the next pickup-and most 51 place-goes to be in Montana, where the three-year-old Jon Tester ends with republican pretender Tim Sheehy by 5.2 points in the latest average RCP. Sheehy constantly expanded his advantage during the year and seems to have a rush in the race.
In all other five races, democrats currently have an advantage in medium RCP. Ruben Gallo runs the Karyi Lake by 4.5 points in Arizona, Elissa Strotkin runs Mike Rogers five points in Michigan, Sherrod Brown leads Berni Moreno by 3.6 points in Ohio, the current Bob Casey leads Dave McCormick by 3.5 points in Pennsylvania, and Mistertsa Baldwin leads Eric Hovde for 5.2 points in Wisconsin.
A republican candidate can still win in any (or all) states. But it seems that the Republicans have some grounds here.
In particular of the five tossing races, in which Democrats lead, Ohio is the only state in which former President Donald Trump won in 2020. But Trump won all five of these states in 2016-leading with him republican senators from all of them except Michigan, which did not take place for re-election this year.
Trump may again turn out to be a “factor X” in 2024. If it has a performance on an equal footing of 2016, Republicans can be on the way to a majority of 53-55 places-maybe even more if they can win more long races, such as those in Maryland and Nevada. However, if the results more reflect 2020, GOP is more likely that he will have to settle for 51 places.
Regardless of this, Republicans seem to be in a solid position to recover the majority in January. Now, from GOP candidates and leadership, you should press on ahead and work on an aggressive map extension to ensure that most are as great as possible.
Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow it on x @shaneharris513.
This column originally appeared on Amac.us
