If Democrats thought things couldn’t get any worse than 2016, let’s hope they don’t look at the upcoming 2018 Senate map. There are a total of 33 Senate seats at stake. Of those 33, only eight are held by Republicans. Democrats will be defending 25 (two are independents who sit in the Democratic caucus). These Democrats were elected (or reelected) during the 2012 presidential campaign and will now face the more hard terrain of the midterm elections.
Here’s a look at the races where Republicans are most likely to swing in their favor.
Indiana: Democrat Joe Donnelly is running for re-election. Many analysts say Donnelly got lucky and won easily when former Sen. Richard Lugar (R) ran in the primary and a weaker GOP candidate ran against him in the general election. Donnelly likely won’t have that luxury in the next round. Indiana just elected Rep. Todd Young (R) with a landslide majority ten-point margin.
Montana: Democrat Jon Tester is running for re-election. He knows a thing or two about race. He led the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2016. He’ll need that experience as he fights for his job in Montana, a state that voted for Trump by a 21-point margin. But Montana tends to go Democratic statewide. By voting for Trump, Montana voters also chose re-elect Democratic Governor Steve Bullock.
Florida:Democrat Bill Nelson has run in multiple races in the Sunshine State, and now he’s asking Florida voters again to send him to D.C. He’s a familiar face there, having served since 1972. But Florida just elected a Republican president and overwhelmingly voted for Republican Marco Rubio by nearly 8 points over Rep. Patrick Murphy. Rubio did well in Latino counties that typically vote Democratic. There are a number of candidate options on the table for the GOP: Rep. David Jolly, Rep. Ron DeSantis or outgoing Gov. Rick Scott. Judging by how Rubio fared against Murphy, the Florida GOP should consider another Latino — because that base has shown a stronger preference for other Latinos, even when the nominee is a Republican.
Missouri: Democrat Claire McCaskill is running for reelection again. Her consistent holding of office is a testament to how many times the state’s GOP has screwed up. Rep. Todd Akin was ahead of her in the polls until his “legal rape” comments killed his chances in 2012. Missouri is a Republican state. Voters there chose Trump by 19 points, re-elected Sen. Roy Blunt by 3 points and flipped the governor’s seat, electing Republican Eric Greitens by nearly six points. McCaskill should be rejected if the Missouri GOP plays its cards right.
ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown has done well in Ohio. He held office for more than 20 years and won reelection to the Senate twice. But if there’s ever a year to get him out of office, it’s now. Ohio swung strenuous to the GOP in 2016. Trump won Ohio by the largest margin than any Republican in the last five elections. Republican Sen. Rob Portman won reelection by a landslide amazing 21-point lead. Rust Belt looks red and it could spell the end for Senator Brown.
North Dakota: It’s a bit of a mystery how Senator Heidi Heitkamp even got elected in North Dakota. It’s certainly evidence of the Republicans’ destitute showing in 2012. Nevertheless, the state is returning to its bloody roots. Voters supported Trump by 36 points and voted for Senator Hoeven by 68 points… You read that correctly. North Dakota voters preferred Republican Hoeven 78.6 to 17 against a Democratic challenger.
Wisconsin: Democrat Tammy Baldwin is running for re-election. No state shocked the country more than Wisconsin. It hasn’t had a Republican since Reagan in 1984. Sen. Ron Johnson (R) came back from the dead to win re-election against Russ Feingold. Johnson went from a double-digit deficit in the polls to a 3-point lead victory on Election Day. Gov. Scott Walker also has a spotless operation in the Badger State — winning three straight elections despite a union onslaught. That will be an intriguing statistic to watch.
West Virginia: Once a Democratic stronghold, West Virginia is now ruby red. Coal country is Trump-friendly, and voters in the state voted for the president-elect by 42 points. Its legislature and a majority of the House delegation have gone Republican. But removing Sen. Joe Manchin from power will be a lofty order. West Virginians still appreciate their blue dogs. Despite Trump’s election, they he voted elect Democrat Jim Justice governor by a gigantic margin. Senator Manchin is probably the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. The seat may not turn red until he retires, but anything is possible when his national party brand is as hated as it is in the Mountain State.
Pennsylvania: This is the last of three major Rust Belt states in play in 2018. Senator Bob Casey has been involved in Pennsylvania politics for a long time. It’s actually a family affair — his father held the office before him. Republican Senator Pat Toomey has proven all the polls wrong, victorious against his Democratic rival in 2016. What’s more, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the Keystone State since 1988. It’s a lithe blue state that could turn red with the Rust Belts.
