The Gavin democratic governor speaks to the news conference with legislators in Texas in the governor’s residence on July 25, 2025 in Sacramento. California News met with the legislators from Texas to repel the redistribution maneuver in Texas, which aims to tilt the result of the election in the middle of the period in 2026 and how California plans to react. (Photo of Justin Sullivana/Getty Images.)
How much unusual resolution in the middle of a decade can be essential for the control of the Congress next year?
Experts are divided, but in general they have no benefit in the crazy activity of both sides to squeeze additional places from the lines that already favor Republicans in Texas and Florida and Democrats in California.
Texas Republicans proposed a new set of maps on Wednesday, in response to the request of President Donald Trump to increase the number of GOP in the American Chamber of Representatives by exaggerating the line to favor Republicans. Meanwhile, leftist California has committed to retaliacing by exaggerating its congress districts in order to create more democratic fines.
An unusual plan to draw new districts in the middle of a decade for political purposes is not unprecedented-Republicks in Colorado and Texas He moved to exaggerate the districts After adopting a united control over these states in 2002, but generally countries draw new districts only if federal law requires this after a new ten -year list.
Asset apparently He asked the Republicans from Texas to aim the five democratic ones, that they had a lean majority of American majority before the expected losses in the intraosteries next year. He too Pressed Republicans Missouri Reforming the democratic district of the city of Kansas. Republican Governor in Florida Ron Desantis He said he would follow in their footsteps.
California has threatened the retaliation plan increase democratic places there and has a democratic super pac created a fund worth $ 20 million To direct the Republicans from Texas as a return next year.
Texas is not impossible for him to come up with five more republican places that would withstand a legal challenge, said J. Miles Coleman, a political cartographer at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. But Coleman said it would take up “creative lines”.
Paul Brace, a retired professor of legal studies at Rice University in Houston, said that the proposed Texas maps have today published Democrats in majority districts in Houston, the Dallas-Fort Worth region and southern Texas, where Trump showed surprising strength last year.
“They try to dilute these areas with more white republican areas to give themselves a better chance,” said Brace. He said that he is skeptical republicans from Texas, which can attract five more GOP places that will withstand legal control, although they can get them by exaggerating the district in Houston, which has not been represented since the US democratic representative Sylvester Turner died in March.
He said other changes are not so clear.
Kimball Brace, a redistribution expert and a consultant in Virginia, who is not related to Paul Brace, said that Texas could already reach the maximum number of GOP places.
“The question about Texas is: do they already have a maximum of republican strength? There is not much space to move,” he said.
Kimball Brace said that Republicans can bring some benefits in the reclamation of the Southern Districts of Texas, in which the Republican strength was greater than expected last year, but there is nothing like five places in the game. He said that he thinks that California is in a similar situation, because for decades California Democrats have drawn maps to maximize their advantage and may not have any more room for maneuver.
Coleman did not agree, saying that he could see opportunities in both states for new places.
“In order to maintain the score, Texas and California, in principle, they could appeal. However, I think that the democrats would be wounded if the redistitrical wars escalate outside these countries,” said Coleman.
Florida and Missouri can add more Republican seats, and theoretically Colorado, New York and Virginia can add more democratic fines, but democratic countries fall into imposed obstacles, such as redistributive commissions that limit partisan maneuvers, said Coleman. The factor will also be dominated by republicans because it is Planning of exaggeration of districts due to court fights.
“It will almost certainly be a benefit of Republicans, so this is another example of Republicans who have more levers than Democrats,” said Coleman. .
At the beginning of this week in New York exposed His own redistribution plan in the middle of a decade, but he would not appear in time for next year in half.
Kimball Brace said that Michigan, where he worked as a consultant, can theoretically add more democratic places, but a brittle compromise in the case Politically independent Redistrictive Commission It makes it unlikely.
Parties in power generally attract districts that favor their own methods known “packing” and “cracking”. “Packing” refers to the concentration of opposition party voters in a miniature number of circles to reduce competition elsewhere. “Cracking” means dispersion of opposition voters in various districts, so they have little chance of influencing votes.
Texas and Florida have already concluded a greater guerrilla advantage from their congress fines than any other countries, according to one means.
Plans, a project at the Harvard Law School election clinic, which measures bias in redistribution, found at least some Biastnic bias in congress circles In many states where data registration data was available.
About two out of 52 places in California in the USA are democratic, but they would be a Republican within a perfectly balanced plan based on party registration throughout the state. Texas is already squeezing about five additional Republican places from 32 American home districts, one of the most distorted maps in the country. Florida has additional four GOP places, from 28.
Tim Henderson, a Stateline reporter, can be achieved at tenderson@stateline.org.
You enable our work.
