WASHINGTON — The early September presidential debate included only one mention of Social Security and three references to Medicare, making safety net programs a tiny part of the political discussion despite their importance to tens of millions of Americans.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump repeatedly mentioned the programs during speeches, although neither campaign made raising the financial sustainability of either program a key issue.
Most often, Harris and Trump admonish their opponent while pledging to “save” Social Security and Medicare — leaving out details or the role Congress must play in the discussion.
How to address projected shortfalls in Social Security and Medicare trust funds will become an increasingly critical topic for the president and Congress over the next decade.
The latest version of Social Security trustees report expects that the Pension and Disability Insurance trust funds and the Disability Fund will be able to pay full benefits until 2035, after which – without action by legislators – benefits will drop to about 83%.
The receiver’s report for Medicare shows that the hospital insurance trust fund funding stream could cover all bills through 2036 before it could only cover 89% of costs.
Currently, there are 67.5 million of them signed up for Medicarewhich provides health insurance and prescription drugs to people over the age of 65, as well as to younger people with certain stern illnesses or disabilities.
Nearly 68 million people receive some level of Social Security benefits each month, representing about $1.5 trillion in federal government spending annually, according to the study information sheet.
While the issue is somewhat less pressing for Trump, whose term will be circumscribed to another four years, Harris could theoretically spend the next eight years in the Oval Office, making trust fund solvency an issue she will likely have to raise with Congress.
Protection of seniors
During the September debate, Harris touched on Social Security and Medicare in response to a question about how her political beliefs on fracking, assault weapons and border security have changed over time.
“My work protecting Social Security and Medicare builds on my years of work. Protecting seniors from fraud,” Harris said in a longer response. “My values haven’t changed. And what is important is that there is a president who actually brings values and a perspective that is about lifting people’s spirits, not humiliating them and calling them names.”
Harris later raised the issue of Medicare again, noting that legislation approved by Congress during Biden’s term allowed program administrators for the first time to negotiate prices for certain prescription drugs. This law, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, also capped the cost of insulin for people enrolled in Medicare at $35 per month.
Trump didn’t bring up Social Security or Medicare during a September debate with Harris, but he mentioned both programs during an earlier summer debate with President Joe Biden before he stepped down as the Democratic nominee.
During that debate, Trump claimed that the Biden administration intended to “destroy” both programs by allowing foreigners to collect benefits.
Fact checking notes on your website that comments and viral posts about foreigners receiving Social Security benefits do not always reflect reality and sometimes confuse different programs.
“Immigrants who legally live or are authorized to work in the U.S. are eligible for a Social Security number and, in some cases, Social Security benefits. “However, viral posts falsely claim that ‘illegal immigrants’ can receive Social Security numbers and retirement benefits, and confuse two programs administered by the Social Security Administration.”
KFF – he writes on his website that whether legal immigrants qualify for Medicare depends on several factors, including how long they have been paying into the system.
“New immigrants are ineligible for Medicare regardless of age. Once immigrants meet the residency requirements, eligibility and registration will be the same as for anyone else.”
Trump on entitlement programs
Trump’s comments about entitlement programs have not always been consistent or entirely clear, but both his campaign and he maintain that they will “save” the program.
While interview for CNBC in March, Trump said lawmakers could do many things to solve the solvency problem.
“A lot can be done on entitlements, on cuts, and on the theft and mismanagement of entitlements,” Trump said, withering to list any of those policy proposals.
Trump campaign website published a video his statement in January 2023 in which he said Republicans “should not cut a dime” from Medicare or Social Security to pay for other legislation.
The problems facing Social Security and Medicare are not related to Congress limiting the amount of taxes that go into the programs. Rather, it is a structure of programs previously established by lawmakers.
Without action by Congress, trust funds will be unable to account for benefit payments in the long run.
So the challenge for the next president will not be to prevent lawmakers from taking action on Social Security and Health Care, but to aid find a bipartisan path forward for legislation to change revenues, spending, or both.
Trump actually wants to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, write on social media in July that “SENIORS SHOULD NOT PAY ZUS TAX!”
Henry Aaron, Bruce and Virginia MacLaury Chair and Senior Fellow in the Economics Studies Program at the Brookings Institution, wrote in detailed the platform’s analysis shows that Trump’s proposal to eliminate the income tax on Social Security benefits “would accelerate the depletion of trust funds by about two years and widen the long-term funding gap by more than 7%.”
Harris’s politics
Harris campaign website claims it would “protect Social Security and Medicare from relentless attacks by Donald Trump and his fringe allies.”
“In the long run, it will strengthen Social Security and Medicare by forcing millionaires and billionaires to pay their fair share of taxes,” the policy website says. “He will always fight to ensure that Americans can count on getting the benefits they have earned.”
Harris announced in early October during an appearance on “The View” that if elected, she would work to include long-term home care for seniors enrolled in Medicare.
“There are so many people in our country who are in the middle: taking care of their children and aging parents, and it’s almost impossible to do it all, especially if they’re working,” Harris said during the live interview. “We found that so many people then have to leave their jobs, which means they lose their source of income, not to mention emotional stress.”
The proposals would likely require partial, if not full, congressional support to move forward, and their annual price tag could be as high as $40 billion, although a campaign reported in information sheet that they are paid.
“These new benefits will be fully paid and will extend the life of the Medicare trust fund by expanding Medicare drug price negotiations, increasing drugmaker rebates for certain brand-name drugs in Medicare, and addressing Medicare fraud,” it states.
The Harris administration would also “crack down on pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) to increase transparency, disclose more cost information, and regulate other price-boosting practices” and “implement international tax reform” to pay for the changes.
YOU MAKE OUR WORK POSSIBLE.
