Polls in battleground states are so far favorable to former and potentially future President Donald Trump. Of course, the election is still several months away, and the polls and the landscape of the country may change by then. The first thing to caution is that Trump and the Republican Party should not get too cocky, especially since Biden’s re-election campaign has focused on gaslighting and even resurrecting lies on the campaign trail. The headlines are starting to change, at least in some polls. So should Trump and his supporters be worried?
Bloomberg/Morning Consult recently conducted a survey of battleground states. The headlines couldn’t contain their enthusiasm. “The poll shows Biden gaining an advantage over Trump in six key states“, read one Bloomberg headline.”Biden is performing well in key swing states”, read another one, this time by Nia-Malika Henderson.
The Morning Consult headline highlights how “Biden takes over from Trump in Wisconsin as 2024 campaign heats up“, although it’s worth noting that the subtitle indicates that “the Democratic incumbent trails his presumptive Republican challenger in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.”
Where exactly is the race in the key states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin? Countries that are likely to decide the elections?
Trump leads Biden 48-43 percent in Arizona, 49-42 percent in Georgia, 46-44 percent in Nevada and 49-43 percent in North Carolina. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump and Biden are tied at 45 percent. Meanwhile, Biden leads Trump 46-45 percent in Wisconsin. Last month, Trump had 46% support in Wisconsin compared to Biden’s 42%. He also previously led Biden in Pennsylvania 49-43 percent.
As Morning Consult’s Jason McMann noted, “Whether that happens remains to be determined.”
Biden closed the gap to Trump in Wisconsin and is showing early signs of starting to close the gap on the broader swing state map. To be determined whether this will happen. pic.twitter.com/zuuWjgLCUr
— Jason I. McMann, Ph.D. (@jimcmann) March 26, 2024
People are excited about a 4 point increase here. It might even just end up being a blip. “Finally some good news for President Joe Biden in the polls,” was how Henderson began her opinion.
As she continues to write, her article becomes even funnier (emphasis added):
So why is this happening now and how can Biden keep it going?
The poll makes it clear that Biden was offended by the State of the Union address. He began this speech with questions from the media and voters about his stamina and mental acuity. He left that speech with something he’d rarely gotten before – great reviews from the press and Democrats, who described his performance as “fiery” and “energetic.” When was the last time voters used these words to describe 81-year-old Biden?
Or maybe never?
According to the poll, one-third of voters said they had seen positive news recently (probably about his speech (which was watched live by 32.2 million people) about Biden, the most since polls began in October. Biden and his team made intelligent exploit of the spotlight and favorable press from a State of the Union address that, frankly, hadn’t moved the needle in years and spread across the country…
More information about the survey also highlights that it “is in favour State of the Union Address this united Democrats and seemed to soften concerns about Biden’s age”
We also discuss this issue in another way later in the article. “The speech may have helped address one of the biggest obstacles to Biden’s campaign: concerns about his age. About six in 10 voters said the vice presidential candidates would be more important this year because Biden will be 81 on Election Day and Trump will be 78. That’s a seven-point drop from the February poll, which was conducted shortly after a special prosecutor’s report called Biden “an elderly man with a poor memory,” he suggests, but such an association may be far-fetched.
As we wrote in the immediate aftermath of that hyper-partisan and deeply divisive State of the Union address, a Yahoo News/YouGov poll found Biden NO receive reinforcement. In fact, his numbers have gotten worse.
Moreover, Biden may have been “fierce” and “energetic” during this speech because he may have been taking medication. Since that speech, which took place almost three weeks ago, there have continued to be slip-ups and moments of confusion on Biden’s part that have made it clear that “concerns about Biden’s age” are NO walk away.
From this point on, Henderson’s plan becomes even clearer. Worse still, Henderson is complicit in promoting dishonest narratives, in this case Trump’s talk of a “slaughter” that was exposed in real time. Trump said “the country will face”bloodbath“had he not been elected in November,” Henderson wrote of a campaign rally Trump held earlier this month in Ohio. The full context of Trump’s remarks shows that he was clearly talking about “carnage” in an economic sense, especially since he was talking about the US auto industry and speaking from Dayton, Ohio, where it is an even more relevant issue.
He then writes, “Republicans, broadly speaking, are, frankly, a big mess,” and claims, “[B]“It’s normal, Biden and the Democrats are making a compelling case for why Trump should not be elected.”
With what Henderson writes next, praising campaign tactics that look like inflaming the American people, especially when it comes to the Israel-Hamas conflict, appears to be coming from the president’s left:
By acting normal, Biden and the Democrats are making a compelling case for why Trump should not be elected. But they must continue to target specific voters, even if their approach sometimes seems…well…odd. (See GloRilla at the White House). They have to too continue to send out campaign press releases that lead to headlines like: Insidious! Read Donald Trump’s historic defeat during the Biden campaign.
Biden’s advantage is that he is president, and these past weeks he has simply been dealing with presidential business. It did not resolve the conflict in Gaza. He didn’t become 10 years younger. It did not undergo border reform. But he did his job in the most basic way current presidents can – by announcing funding for job creation and loan forgiveness and slowly changing his rhetoric and approach towards Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In other words, Biden was not a miracle worker who solved all his political problems. But he is slowly changing the narrative — on the airwaves and among Democrats — about his campaign by doing the basic job of a politician.
If this is what people are saying that Biden’s chances are improving, they don’t seem to be serious people, but rather supporters rooting for Biden.
This month’s Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll was conducted March 8-15 of 437 registered voters in each state, and the margin of error was plus or minus 3 to 5 percentage points in each state. The overall survey polled 4,932 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Earlier this week, we also wrote that in Pennsylvania, the Biden-Trump ratio is 46 percent, and that Trump has a clear advantage over Biden in Michigan, according to a CNN poll published last Friday. In addition to this lead in Michigan, the poll also showed that Trump has an advantage in who voters trust more to solve most problems, as well as how most voters handle it NO they believe Biden’s “sharpness and toughness” are what they expect from a president.
Trump will have time to worry when he acts like he doesn’t worry at all. The 2024 presidential race looks not only intense but also competitive.
Further speaking, a survey of registered voters shows that Trump and Biden are neck and neck: 44 percent of all voters say they support Biden and 43 percent say they support Trump.
NEW: The 2024 presidential election remains extremely close, with 9% of voters threatening to vote for a third party and 5% undecided. Joe Biden overtook Donald Trump by 1 percentage point. https://t.co/lF3ua6fd57 pic.twitter.com/HSkDxv7H0W
— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) March 25, 2024
