Republican Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance wasn’t concerned about polls, even those that showed his Democratic opponent, Republican Tim Ryan, in the lead. They both ran to replace retiring Senator Ron Portman (R-OH).
In the GOP primary, neither candidate was terrible on paper, but there may have been some presentation issues. While no one was particularly exhilarating at first glance, Vance emerged at the top, but there were questions about whether he could win given his anti-Trump roots. Vance’s Twitter activity about the former president was quite clear and indicated his dislike of Trump, but that quickly stopped being an issue. He ran a solid campaign and performed well in the debates with Ryan, leading to an emphatic seven-point victory on Tuesday.
Vance’s victory is another stark reminder to Democrats of their Rust Belt losses among white rural working-class voters. The Buckeye State has now been red since 2016 – long gone are its roots as a swing state. Some observers wonder whether Democrats could win here again, especially with a candidate as mighty as Tim Ryan. Florida and Iowa also lost their swing status, so most viewed this contest as an opportunity for Vance, regardless of the polls. As the Washington Free Beacon noted, Vance felt that Ryan I never really had the chance: :
Republican J.D. Vance says he never had any doubt that Ohio voters would eventually realize what was at stake in the upcoming Senate elections.
After months of seemingly neck-and-neck with Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan, polls show Vance finally breaking through among voters. But Vance told the Washington Free Beacon that it wasn’t because his message had changed.
“The energy is building as we get closer to Election Day, but I’ve always thought the idea that this race was close was kind of a mirage,” Vance said Saturday. “Many of our employees were simply not paying attention to politics, they were on vacation or spending time with their children.”
The latest polls show Vance leading by 6 to as many as 9 points, a dramatic departure from what was considered a statistically tied race back in October. Polling makes Vance the most likely GOP candidate in battleground states to win on Tuesday.
Vance’s solid lead – he told the Free Beacon that he “loves the polls” – isn’t a huge surprise. Former President Donald Trump won the state twice by 8 points, and since 1999, retiring Senator Rob Portman has been replaced by a Republican. Even though Ryan did well in the summer polls, election forecasters always viewed Ohio as a likely Republican win regardless of what the polls showed.
Tuesday night was a red mirage as the Republican Party failed to deliver a massive blow to Joe Biden and the Democrats, but it was a blue mirage in Ohio if you just look at the polls. The lack of stories about Vance’s doom all summer should have been an indication that the man was never in any danger of losing the race.
